FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 24 (Week 9)
After each week we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2023 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.
Teams that are “Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups and “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs. 47 teams are mentioned in this week's playoff picture, but only 24 will get in later this season.
Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference.
Big Sky
Locks: Montana State
Barring a complete disaster down the stretch, Montana State locked up a playoff spot after adding a signature win over Sacramento State on the road this Saturday. The only loss was to No. 1 South Dakota State on the road. If the Bobcats add another top-10 win to the resume this weekend vs. Idaho, this team becomes the clear favorite for the No. 2 seed and home-field advantage all the way to Frisco.
Should be in: Idaho, Sacramento State, Montana
Even after a Week 7 loss, Idaho has a strong resume with a win over Sacramento State and an FBS win over Nevada. Unless the Vandals collapse down the stretch this team should receive an At-Large bid. The Vandals will move to “Lock” status with an upset win over Montana State this weekend. Sacramento State has an impressive Power-Five win over Stanford that propels this team to the "Should Be In" tier. The Hornets have only lost to Montana State and Idaho. If Sacramento State can win two of the final four games should earn the Hornets an at-large bid. Montana’s resume received a huge boost after the road win at Idaho two weeks ago. The Grizzlies also have a road win at UC Davis and will only need to win two of the last four games to lock in a playoff berth.
Work to Do: UC Davis, Idaho State, Eastern Washington, Portland State
Week 8 was a big week for the Big Sky teams in the “Work to Do” category. Idaho State and Eastern Washington earned huge conference victories against other teams in this category. Both teams still need to win their final four games to feel comfortable about the playoffs. Portland State lost a home game to the aforementioned Bengals and now also must win out to remain in playoff contention. The Vikings will host Eastern Washington in an elimination game this weekend. UC Davis had a bye week and is in the best position of these four teams. The Aggies will still need to win three of their final four games. Weber State was eliminated after a Week 8 loss to Eastern Washington.
Big South – OVC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: UT Martin, SEMO, Tennessee State, Gardner-Webb
Another week and another UT Martin win. The Skyhawks are still undefeated against FCS competition and have the lead in the Big South–OVC race. The Nov. 11 matchup with SEMO will most likely decide the team that receives the automatic bid for the conference. SEMO struggled in out-of-conference play and lost an opportunity to receive an at-large bid. UT Martin could lose the game to SEMO and still receive an at-large bid by winning out. Tennessee State has a close conference loss to UT Martin but could still finish the year 9-2 (8 FBS wins) with losses to UT Martin and Notre Dame. The Tigers might lack a quality win but finishing the season with only one loss against FCS competition would make a compelling argument to the committee. Gardner-Webb is added to the list after a big out-of-conference win over Eastern Kentucky. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are still a long shot and will need to win out to have a chance for the playoffs. This weekend will be a huge test as Gardner-Webb faces UT Martin. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs pull off the upset, this team still has a chance to win the conference and earn the auto-bid.
CAA
Locks: None
Should be in: Delaware
Delaware stands alone atop the CAA standings after eight weeks. The Blue Hens are undefeated against FCS competition and possess a solid win over New Hampshire. Delaware only has two games left against top CAA teams (Villanova and Elon), which puts this team in a position to receive a bid as long as the Blue Hens win two of the last four games. If Delaware can win out this team will also be a top candidate to earn a seed.
Work to do: Villanova, UAlbany, New Hampshire, Richmond, Elon, Campbell, Towson William & Mary, Rhode Island
The CAA is still wide open and there are a ton of teams with decent resumes that could separate themselves in the coming weeks. All eight of these teams will need to win most of the remaining games to earn an at-large bid. The conference as a whole will only get three or four bids maximum, which gives each conference game going forward huge implications. Villanova and UAlbany remain the closest to moving into the “Should be in” tier. The Wildcats have dominant wins over Rhode Island and Elon, with the only FCS loss being to UAlbany. The Great Danes are right there with them after another dominant win (35-10) over fellow playoff hopeful Rhode Island in Week 8. Richmond continues to elevate its playoff resume after a Week 8 win took the Spiders to 4-1 in conference play. Richmond still needs to add quality wins but has the opportunity to do so in the next three weeks. Campbell and Towson won important games in Week 8 to keep them in the discussion. The Camels are in a better position but likely need a win over Richmond or Delaware to receive serious consideration. William and Mary and Rhode Island are barely hanging onto postseason hopes after terrible performances in Week 8. The Tribe has been terribly disappointing after entering the season as the favorite in the CAA.
MVFC
Locks: South Dakota State
South Dakota State has the most impressive win of the season, which is a Week 2 win over Montana State. South Dakota State has been dominant in conference play and is the clear favorite to earn the No. 1 overall seed.
Should be in: South Dakota, Southern Illinois
The team that is the best postseason bet in this tier is South Dakota. The Coyotes are 4-0 in conference play and undefeated against FCS competition. South Dakota has three straight games against playoff contenders and only needs to win one to earn “Lock” status. Even if this team were to lose all three and beat Western Illinois, a 7-4 team with wins at North Dakota State and Youngstown State would likely still earn a bid. Southern Illinois remains in the “Should be in” tier even after the close loss to South Dakota State as the Salukis have one of the best out-of-conference resumes in the country. The Salukis have an FBS win over Northern Illinois and solid wins over Austin Peay and SEMO.
Work to do: Youngstown State, North Dakota, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State
The MVFC will have a chance to get six teams in the playoffs, which means three of these teams will likely earn an at-large bid. Youngstown State made the biggest stride this weekend after a huge win over fellow contender Illinois State. The Penguins are now 4-3 and own a dominant win over Southern Illinois. Illinois State’s playoff chances took a hit this weekend as the Redbirds still do not have a win over a playoff-caliber team. The Redbirds are 4-3 and running out of chances to get a resume-defining win. North Dakota was sitting the most comfortable of these teams a week ago but then suffered a blowout loss to Northern Iowa in Week 8. The Fighting Hawks still have the win over North Dakota State on the resume but need to make sure they win the next two weeks to stay in contention. Northern Iowa rises to 3-1 in conference play but still only 4-3 overall. The Panthers game this week against Illinois State will be very important for both teams. North Dakota State is clearly not the same team as years past, but the Bison still have a solid resume. A win over Central Arkansas gives the Bison a solid non-conference win. Assuming the Bison can get to 6-2, this team only needs to win one of the last three games and this team should be in the playoffs.
NEC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Duquesne, Merrimack
Week 8 was important for the NEC title race as Duquesne defeated contender Saint Francis to solidify control of the first-place spot in the conference. The Dukes are 3-0 in conference play and have already beaten one of the top teams in the conference. Merrimack also added a blowout win over Long Island in Week 8 and is in sole control of second place in the NEC. Merrimack and Duquesne meet the final week of the season, which may determine the NEC conference title and the auto-bid. Wagner was eliminated after a bad loss to Central Connecticut State. The NEC will only send their champion to the playoffs.
Patriot
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Lafayette, Fordham, Holy Cross
Last week I gave Holy Cross way too much credit assuming this team would find their momentum based on the success from a year ago. Lafayette took control of the conference after a 38-28 win over the Crusaders. If the Leopards win out, this team will earn the Patriot League auto-bid. Holy Cross needs to win out and beat Army if the Crusaders want any chance at an at-large bid. The only other shot for the Crusaders is to hope Fordham can beat Lafayette and win the head-to-head matchup against the Rams. Speaking of Fordham, the Rams are 5-2 and have an FBS win over Buffalo. The Rams did lose to Georgetown early in the season but still have Holy Cross and Lafayette on the schedule which gives them a chance to earn the auto-bid. The race for the Patriot League title just became one of the most interesting conference title races in the FCS.
Pioneer
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Davidson, Drake
This is another conference that will not earn an at-large bid. Right now, Davidson and Drake are tied for the conference lead at 4-0. The Wildcats and the Bulldogs do not play each other, but Davidson has the advantage despite the last-second heroics that kept Drake in the race this weekend. Davidson already has wins against the third and fourth-place teams in the conference (Marist and Butler). The Wildcats looked poised to make the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.
SoCon
Locks: Furman
Furman becomes the third team that has moved into the “Lock” tier after a huge road victory over Western Carolina. Furman is undefeated against FCS competition and added an impressive win to their resume in Week 8. The Paladins showed why this team deserved the preseason hype as Furman dominated the Catamounts for much of the afternoon. Furman has four games remaining and three of the games come against teams at the bottom of the SoCon. The Paladins are in a position to earn a seed if this team wins out.
Should be in: Western Carolina
Western Carolina will be disappointed after a loss to Furman this weekend but the Catamounts should still feel great about their postseason hopes. The Catamounts are 5-2 and also play three teams at the bottom of the conference after this weekend's matchup with Mercer. If Western Carolina defeats Mercer, the Catamounts will move into the “Lock” category.
Work to do: Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford
Chattanooga has the best chance to earn an at-large bid. The Mocs have two FCS opponents left (VMI and Furman), and to guarantee their spot, Chattanooga will need to win both games. If the Mocs lose a close game to Furman, Chattanooga may need some help to receive an at-large bid. Mercer sits at 5-3 after a 31-17 win over Wofford and the Bears need to win the final three games to earn a bid to the playoffs. I added Samford because if this team finds a way to win the rest of their games and if UT Martin wins the Big South–OVC with a 9-1 record, Samford may be able to sneak into the picture. It will be tough for the Bulldogs and this team cannot afford another loss this season.
Southland
Locks: None
Should be in: Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word made things a little tricky in Week 8 without starting quarterback Zach Calzada and needed a huge second-half comeback against McNeese State. In the next two weeks, Incarnate Word plays fellow first-place teams Lamar and Nicholls State. With wins over the next two weeks, the Cardinals would likely have the conference title and auto-bid clinched. The Southland will not receive an at-large bid and if the Cardinals were to not win the conference, this team may not be a lock to receive an at-large bid either. Incarnate Word does not have a strong non-conference resume, but I do expect this team to win the conference and be the lone representative of the Southland.
UAC
Locks: None
Should be in: Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas leads the UAC with a 3-0 conference record and is 5-2 overall with just four games remaining. The Bears have a solid non-conference win over SEMO and have rolled through conference play up to this point of the season. If the Bears can split the final two games between Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay this team will be a lock for the postseason.
Work to do: Austin Peay, Eastern Kentucky, Tarleton State
Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky both played in games that went down to the wire. Unfortunately for Eastern Kentucky, the Colonels lost to Gardner-Webb while Austin Peay escaped with an overtime win over Southern Utah. Both teams are still undefeated in conference play and still can compete for the conference title but an at-large bid now looks impossible for Eastern Kentucky. Any games featuring Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, and Eastern Kentucky will be must-watch football over the final four weeks of the season.
Note: North Carolina Central and Florida A&M will both likely be playing in the SWAC Championship or Celebration Bowl and neither would be eligible for the FCS playoffs. If the Eagles lose one MEAC game and become eligible, North Carolina Central would enter the “Should be in” tier. Florida A&M would have to lose multiple games to not win the SWAC East and this would eliminate the Rattlers from playoff consideration.
