Behind The Numbers: Week 4 FCS Football Review

Our Behind The Numbers series continues to roll here at FCS Football Central.

Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what really happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to win the game, and which teams got outplayed but still escaped with a win.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS football action in Week 4.

Quick Hits:

Montana State may have been missing several offensive starters, but that didn't stop the Bobcats from putting up one of the best down-to-down performances of the weekend. Don't let the final score fool you; if not for a few ill-timed turnovers, the Bobcats were hardly stopped on Saturday night. Montana State put up an elite rushing success rate of 68.4%.

The leader of this game was Colson Coon, who rushed for 197 yards on 11.6 yards per carry. This wasn't even skewed by 1-2 giant runs. His longest carry only went for 31 yards, showing that he was consistently effective for the Bobcats. I would imagine he still has a pretty big role even after Adam Jones returns from injury.

Speaking of dominant rushing performances, we have to highlight Eli Gillman and Montana's offense. The Grizzlies had a similar rushing success rate of 60%, which included 275 yards from Gillman as he makes his case for the Walter Payton Award. Gillman finished with 200 yards after contact, averaging an insane 7.69 yards after contact per rush.

We should also highlight this Montana offensive line, which kept Keali'i Ah Yat clean in the pocket all night. Ah Yat only faced pressure on 2 of 32 dropbacks, which further shows how dominant Montana's offensive line was on Saturday night. This has been the best pass-blocking offensive line in the country, while also paving the way for an extremely effective rushing attack. It's time to start talking about this unit as one of, if not the best OL units in the FCS.

Youngstown State went back to its dominant, consistent offensive ways against South Dakota. The Penguins finished with a 59.1% success rate. Outside of a brief lull in the 3rd quarter, Youngstown State had an answer for every single defensive look South Dakota gave them.

Entering the weekend, we thought Illinois State had one of the best defenses in the country. UNI had its way with the Redbird defense, posting a 50.9% success rate. They excelled in nearly every aspect of the game. They were able to average nearly 6 yards per carry, including 80 yards on 8 carries from Xavier Terrell.

On the other hand, Illinois State's offense was completely impotent. UNI executed a bend but don't break approach, limiting any potential explosive plays. Illinois State was able to get 4-5 yards every play until the field shrank and this offense became totally ineffective without the extra space. Illinois State had three drives inside the UNI 23-yard line, but came away with 0 points.

Lehigh's offensive explosiveness has completely disappeared without Hayden Johnson at quarterback. The Mountain Hawks were the 4th-least explosive offense in the country. It's really either Luke Yoder or nothing for this offensive attack. Their longest drive this weekend was only 33 yards. If not for two bad punts, Lehigh may not have even scored double digits against Penn. This team has an outstanding defense and rushing attack, but they are going to need Hayden Johnson back to compete at the highest level.

Indiana State gave North Dakota a unique challenge last Saturday. The Sycamores were held to a terrible 29.5% success rate, but still finished with the 5th-most explosive offense in the FCS. Basically, they struggled to create positive plays consistently, but when they did, Brady Allen was able to generate chunk plays through the air. Keep an eye on freshman WR Jayden Reed, who had 129 yards and 2 TDs.

Speaking of North Dakota, the Fighting Hawks had a 37.5% rushing success rate. Their running backs only averaged 2.9 yards per carry. Do this run game and offensive line have some underlying issues? Or was Indiana State's front seven just that good? It's something to monitor.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 4?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success-rate margin (OFF SR-DEF SR). This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

Campbell (Net SR: 33.4%)
Samford (Net SR: 31.2%)
ETSU (Net SR: 26.1%)
Marist (Net SR: 24.6%)
South Dakota State (Net SR: 22.9%)
Alabama A&M (Net SR: 22%)
St. Thomas (Net SR: 20.5%)
Austin Peay (Net SR: 19.4%)
Tennessee Tech (Net SR: 17.6%)
Montana (Net SR: 16.8%)

Another week and another appearance by Campbell as one of the most dominant teams of the weekend. Kamden Sixkiller went for over 300 yards again, and it's looking like the Camels might be the best team in the CAA. What an impressive turnaround for this program under head coach Braxton Harris.

There's a pattern starting to form in this section. If you play VMI, you're probably going to have one of the most dominant performances of the week. Samford received the honor in Week 4, taking complete advantage with a 45-7 win over the Keydets. The Bulldogs rolled up nearly 500 total yards, averaging 6.5 yards per play in a dominant performance.

We were supposed to get an incredible offensive game in ETSU-Western Carolina, but only one team delivered on that hype. Don't let this final score fool you; ETSU led the Catamounts 44-7 early in the 3rd quarter before basically packing it in for the rest of the game. The Bucs scored on their first eight possessions of this game; five of them went for touchdowns.

Tennessee Tech won this game 42-38 against Wofford, so it may come as a surprise to see them in this section. The only reason that this game was competitive is that Tennessee Tech had 12 penalties compared to only two for Wofford. The Terriers were also able to create some explosive plays with new quarterback Ethan Drumm. The defense improved later in the game. TTU only allowed 10 points on five second-half possessions and forced three 3-and-outs. Offensively, the Golden Eagles posted an incredible 59.1% success rate on passing downs.

Some love this week for the Pioneer League as Marist and St. Thomas dominated their conference matchups. The Tommies were particularly impressive in a blowout win over San Diego. Is 554 total yards on only 54 plays good? Next week, St. Thomas faces the Presbyterian team that Marist just crushed.

South Dakota State was without starting quarterback Chase Mason, but leaned on a familiar formula in a blowout win over Eastern Illinois. The Jackrabbits played incredible defense and utilized what may be the best rushing attack in the country. Their three main running backs had 317 rushing yards on 29 carries, averaging 10.9 yards per carry.

Austin Peay was asleep in the first half against UT Martin, finding itself down 12-7 at halftime. The Govs came out and outscored the Skyhawks 21-0 in the third quarter to put this game away. UT Martin went 3-and-out or worse in six of its 12 drives, plus were held scoreless in the second half.

Alabama A&M is starting to emerge as a contender in the SWAC. They crushed Florida A&M, gaining 543 total yards on 7.4 yards per play, while holding the Rattlers to 2 rushing yards on over 20 carries. They get a chance to make a massive statement against Jackson State this weekend.

Which Week 4 Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.

Mercer 34, Abilene Christian 17 (ACU 54.4%, Mercer 44.1%)
West Florida 20, SEMO 17 (SEMO 32.9%, UWF 25.4%)
Princeton 22, UAlbany 0 (UAlbany 48.5%, Princeton 41.5%)
Idaho State 28, Southern Utah 24 (SUU 41.3%, ISU 40.6%)

Abilene Christian actually moved the ball incredibly effectively against Mercer. The problem was quarterback Tucker Parks threw 3 INTs and the Wildcats also fumbled the ball away twice. They lost the turnover battle 5-0, plus they missed a key field goal. That's going to get you beat every time.

West Florida did it again. This team is becoming dominant in the margins. UWF had one of the worst offensive performances of the weekend with backup quarterback Donovan Leary, posting a 25% success rate and only 194 total yards on 3.3 yards per play. They still got the win by forcing 6 turnovers and amassing 12 TFLs against SEMO.

UAlbany is becoming one of the unluckiest teams in the country if you just analyze the down-to-down performance. This is the third time they've been featured in this section; all three times, they lost the game. It could also be that the Great Danes aren't executing in big-play situations. They outgained Princeton this weekend, but three turnovers and a missed field goal left them with 0 points.

Another season and we have the exact same Southern Utah team. Good enough to compete with good teams, but also bad enough to lose to overmatched opponents, and never quite have enough to finish games against Top 15 teams. Southern Utah dominated down-to-down because Floyd Chalk and this run game kept them on schedule all night. Ultimately, they fell short in the red zone, while the execution in key moments just isn't quite good enough.

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