Will Florida Beat Kentucky? Predicting Gators' Chances for Road Win Over Wildcats

Florida finds itself needing three wins in its next four games to reach a bowl game, while Kentucky is riding high after a win over Auburn last week.

The Florida Gators are in need of another late-season turnaround. Saturday's game against Kentucky could be the spark. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

For the Florida Gators, the final quarter of the regular season begins.

The Kentucky Wildcats want to derail Florida's bowl hopes while keeping their own hopes intact. The Gators are injured at wideout but are pressing forward with a deep position group, and the Florida offense attempts to thrive against a suddenly confident defense.

Live Arm

Kentucky redshirt freshman quarterback Cutter Boley sports a live arm and mobility. He walked into Jordan Hare Stadium, faced down a tough defense, and did just enough to win, leaving with a 10-3 victory. Auburn's defense is better upfront than Florida's; however, UF's secondary is better, and they have to be.

Kentucky’s Cutter Boley sports a live arm and mobility. | Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Without a serious pass rush, the back unit must step up, covering wideouts longer and farther down the field. Boley will launch a deep ball, but he will also make freshman mistakes, including connecting with a defender on an interception. Showing blitz and dropping players back will likely lead to at least one interception. Boley's offensive line will need to protect him effectively.

Orange Wall

Kentucky's defense excelled last week, facing a subpar line. Now, they line up against two future NFL draft picks. The Wildcats generate pressure by selling out and sending extra blitzers. Neither Jake Slaughter nor Austin Barber backs down, and they will make holes for running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh gets downhill and accelerates.

UK will counter with run blitzes, but to no avail. With at least 20 carries, Baugh surpasses 90 yards and touches the end zone twice.

Jadan Baugh needs to average just over 79 yards per game rushing over the final four game to reach 1,000 yards on the season. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

Lagway Moment

The game gives DJ Lagway another chance to show that he is the quarterback of the future. Lagway will face a desperate defense that will throw everything at him, including blitzes, stunts, and pursuit. Kentucky isn't the most talented defense, but they don't stay blocked and will fight until the whistle. Lagway's talent should make this game a runaway success, but it isn't guaranteed.

DJ Lagway with a filthy side arm throw on 3rd down 🔥🔥🔥 #Gators pic.twitter.com/u8j0DbQZCL

— Follow: @fsh733 (@fsh733) October 4, 2025

Prediction

Florida’s weak pass rush keeps this game close. Kentucky’s aggression makes it even tighter.

As the superior combatant, UF will try to put the Wildcats away early with deep passes. Yet the opponent, filled with guile, toughness, and relentlessness, keeps marching forward. Perusing the
depth charts, this game should be a 25-point win for the Gators, yet an inconsistent star quarterback and injuries to skill position players will keep this game relatively close, with Florida pulling away late.

Final Score: Florida 26, Kentucky 16