2022-23 ACC Basketball Preview
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Welcome, everyone to my ACC Preview for the 2022-23 season, a 6500+ word novel that should keep you fairly prepared for the season upcoming.
READ MORE: Kickoff time announced for Florida State's home game against Georgia Tech
It should be an exciting season for many fans, and one full of many questions. Can Jon Scheyer continue the success Coach K founded at Duke? Can Florida State and Virginia rebound after down seasons? Can Miami stay hot? Will Virginia Tech have anyone miss a 3-pointer this season? Will Pitt not be weird? We'll discuss all of these things and more, first starting with a team-by-team breakdown, before going into my official Preseason ACC Ballot as I submitted to the conference.
Boston College, 12th ACC 21-22
Returners: Makai Ashton-Langford, TJ Bickerstaff, DeMarr Langford, Quinten Post, Jaeden Zackery
Departures: Brevin Galloway, James Karnik
Arrivals: Prince Aligbe, Donald Hand Jr, Chas Kelley, Mason Madsen (Cincinnati), Devin McGlockton, Armani Mighty, CJ Penha Jr (Trevecca Nazarene, D2)
Another year, another bad Boston College team. They slow the pace down so much that they can make games ugly, much like they did with Florida State last season, but overall it’s just not a very good team. They had an in-conference point differential of -5.2, and had 9 losses of 10 points or more a season ago. To me, this roster is either just as bad, or just a hair above what they were last year.
Mason Madsen didn’t provide much at Cincinnati, and while CJ Penha Jr. put up good stats at his last stop, it was at a Division 2 school, and you can’t project him to put up even 50% of those numbers a season ago. It’s really going to come down to the freshmen. Prince Aligbe and Donald Hand Jr. enter as 4-star prospects ranked outside the top-100, and BC is going to need them to be good immediately if they want to have any kind of success.
The Langford brothers have their moments as guys that can do a little bit of everything, Quinten Post is a solid big, and TJ Bickerstaff is a pretty good rebounder, I just really have no idea where the scoring is coming from on this team outside of Jaeden Zackery who was good as a freshman, and should take another step forward this year.
X-Factor: Jaeden Zackery. He shot 47.7% from 3 as a freshman, which gives the perimeter something they don’t have with the Langford's, and it’s a much needed skillset as only Madsen shot above 35% from 3 of players with college experience on this roster. He’s one player that other teams really have to gameplan for.
Projected Finish: Bottom 5 ACC Finish
Clemson, 10th ACC 21-22
Returners: Joshua Beadle, PJ Hall, Alex Hemenway, Chase Hunter, Ben Middlebrooks, Ian Schieffelin, Hunter Tyson
Departures: Naz Bohannon, David Collins, Al-Amir Dawes, Nick Honor
Arrivals: Brevin Galloway (Boston College), Dillon Hunter, RJ Godfrey, Chauncey Gibson, Chauncey Wiggins
Brad Brownell has his work cut out for him this year, as this team has a lot of inexperience coming off of the bench, their best player in PJ Hall is coming off of surgery on his knee, and Alex Hemenway is the only known steady shooter on this roster. There’s not enough top-end talent on the roster to help Hall out as he gets back in the groove of playing basketball. At least last year, Al-Amir Dawes and David Collins could provide steady double figures, I think Hunter Tyson is the only one you can project to do that this season.
Brevin Galloway was a slight disappointment at Boston College last year, who followed his head coach from Charleston to BC, and if he can’t have success following his coach to another league in the exact same system, I really don’t see him having more success at a completely new system in the same conference, and he’s a projected starter on this team. He’s really the only “traditional” guard on this roster, but he only averaged 1.4 APG last year, so this may be another team that struggles to play make and score, which you’ll see a few times in this ACC Preview with other teams.
Chase Hunter is a solid, do-it-all player, but is he going to be able to do enough playmaking to help this team move the ball efficiently? Hunter Tyson and his brother Dillon, an incoming freshman, are going to have to do a lot until Hall makes his return to the lineup and is at full strength. I just think there is too much production going out, and no obvious answers on this roster as Coach Brownell decided to go after freshmen instead of transfers.
X-Factor: Hunter Tyson. He’s going to have a lot on his plate until Hall is 100%, which may not be until the end of November. Once they roll into ACC play, hopefully some of these freshmen are contributing at a high level, but there’s not anything to suggest they will as we stand right now.
Projected Finish: Bottom 5 ACC Finish
Duke, 1st ACC 21-22, Final Four
Returners: Jaylen Blakes, Jeremy Roach
Departures: Joey Baker, Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Theo John, Trevor Keels, Wendell Moore, Mark Williams
Arrivals: Kale Catchings (Harvard), Kyle Filipkowski, Jacob Grandison (Illinois), Max Johns (Princeton), Dereck Lively II, Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor, Christian Reeves, Jaden Schutt, Dariq Whitehead, Ryan Young (Northwestern)
The talent on this roster is unreal, with Duke bringing in 7 total freshmen, 6 of them being top-70 recruits and four 5-stars (Whitehead, Lively II, Mitchell, Filipowski). They also have three transfers, none of whom will play that many minutes besides maybe Jacob Grandison. As usual, Duke is going to rely on the young guns to carry this team to success. Can Jon Scheyer have success with this much inexperience in his first season?
He’s going to have to rely a lot on his one key returning player, Jeremy Roach. Roach knows what to do and is a steady-handed guard, he impressed me with his play down the stretch when the Blue Devils needed him. With this many young players, they’re bound to make some mistakes, and it’ll be up to Roach to keep everyone aligned and level-headed while on the floor.
There may also be some mistakes Scheyer makes in his first season. Sometimes it takes a little while for first-time head coaches to round into form, especially younger coaches. It’s likely going to take some time for him to figure out which players work best in certain spots, which sets work best for his guys, and just how dominant the freshmen will be. This should be a team rounding into form as March comes around.
Leading those freshmen are the top 2 prospects in the country, Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead, both of which Florida State was after and are very familiar with. Lively, the number one ranked prospect, possesses incredible athleticism for someone his size, has a great motor and rebounding ability, and is still budding with potential on the perimeter. He’s going to be a unit down low on the block. Then there’s Whitehead, a product out of Montverde Academy, who is as smooth of an athlete as you will see in the 2022 class, and is a great scorer from all three levels. Not like the other 5-stars are any slouches. Filipowski is a smooth ball handler and passer from a stretch 5 kind of position, though he’ll likely play a lot at the 4 with Lively at the 5, and his ability to stretch the floor at an elite level is going to be a mismatch nightmare for a lot of teams. Then there’s Mitchell, another phenomenal athlete and defender, though his offensive game is still rounding into form. He’s likely going to draw the other team’s best offensive player, because he’s going to be able to shut down a lot of people with his length and athleticism.
X-Factor: Jeremy Roach. With this much youth, the one veteran is going to carry a lot of the burden of getting everyone in the right place, and as the point guard, he’s also responsible for getting all of these talented freshmen the ball, and will be Coach Scheyer’s second voice on the court.
Projected Finish: Top-2 ACC Finish
Florida State, 8th ACC 21-22
Returners: Matthew Cleveland, Cam’Ron Fletcher, Naheem McLeod, Caleb Mills, Jalen Warley
Departures: Quincy Ballard (Wichita State), John Butler, RayQuan Evans, Tanor Ngom, Malik Osborne, Anthony Polite, Harrison Prieto, Wyatt Wilkes
Arrivals: Jeremiah Bembry, Cameron Corhen, Jaylan Gainey (UCF), Darin Green Jr (UCF), De’Ante Green, Tom House, Chandler Jackson, Baba Miller (Spain)
This is one of those teams that could finish Top-2 in the ACC and I wouldn’t be surprised, or they could barely finish in the top half of the ACC and it wouldn’t be a shock. We rarely see Leonard Hamilton teams have this kind of roster turnover, thriving on player development and retention over chasing the maybe more talented option. After last season, it was clear some shakeup was needed though. This is going to be something we’ve never seen from Florida State, as no one on the roster has more than one season of experience playing in Hamilton’s system, and there are eight total newcomers, as well as a new assistant coach in RJay Barsh with Charlton Young getting a job at Missouri. With that many newcomers, it may take a month or two to round into shape, but having a summer international trip helps build chemistry that is hard to duplicate in practice.
FSU’s biggest concern is they need to stay healthy. There were times last season when the entire ideal starting 5 would be out with an injury. Most teams would’ve been decimated in that situation, but Hamilton’s emphasis on depth kept them competitive in most games, but were clearly outmatched against the best of the conference, and gave the inexperienced guys some much needed game reps within the system. They’ve already lost Jaylan Gainey for the year with an ACL injury who was projected to be a massive part of the rotation.
Part of why last season was a struggle was the lack of shot creators. Caleb Mills had to do the bulk of creation, and often drew in double and triple teams as he was the only one that could reliably score from all three levels combined with a lack of outside shooting threats. Matthew Cleveland was superb at getting downhill, but his struggles from deep and the free throw line created some hesitancy here and there. Adding a lethal shooter in Darin Green Jr should spell a lot of those concerns, as should Jalen Warley’s development.
Warley has gotten as much hype this offseason as anyone, and only had two turnovers in 76 total minutes of basketball in their trip to Canada in early August, a much better rate than his 24.1% turnover rate a season ago. If he can clean those up while being more aggressive with his scoring, this becomes a much different team.
X-Factor: Baba Miller. It was a tough call between Miller and Warley, but Miller is a lottery-type talent if all the tools connect. We’ve seen this staff develop these long and athletic wings as well as any staff in America, if Miller can have a big impact on the team, this becomes a hard club to beat come March.
Projected Finish: 3-6th ACC Finish
Georgia Tech, 14th ACC 21-22
Returners: Deebo Coleman, Rodney Howard, Miles Kelly, Tristan Maxwell, Jordan Meka, Jalon Moore, Deivon Smith, Kyle Sturdivant
Departures: Michael Devoe, Khalid Moore, Jordan Usher
Arrivals: Freds Bagatskis, Javon Franklin (South Alabama), Jermontae Hill, Cyril Martynov, Lance Terry (Gardner-Webb)
If you add up the scoring averages of every player on this roster that has played college basketball (10 players, by the way, big sample size), you get a total of 66.4, which doesn’t sound terrible, but none of their projected starters averaged more than 6.5 PPG last season. Their two transfers are coming from Gardner-Webb and South Alabama. I don’t really know where the talent is on this team outside of Deebo Coleman, who I am really high on, he’ll be in the conversation for Most Improved Player of the ACC.
Rodney Howard is likely going to have to play close to 30 minutes per game for this team, which is a mistake, and there’s also not a guy that I would trust as a ball-handler on this roster. Deivion Smith and Kyle Sturdivant are around being average, but I think they’re really going to struggle against high pressure defensive teams. Smith had 48 assists and 42 turnovers a season ago, and he’s going to be relied upon a lot more this year as a lead ball-handler with Michael Devoe and Jordan Usher out of the picture.
This could be a very troublesome season for Josh Pastner who is just two seasons removed from an ACC Championship if he can’t help this team score the basketball.
X-Factor: Deebo Coleman. He’s going to have to score 15-16 PPG this season for Georgia Tech to have a chance in a lot of these games, and he can be capable of those kinds of games. I really don’t see anyone else on the roster, at least as of now in mid-October, that can be capable of these kinds of performances.
Projected Finish: Bottom 5 ACC Finish
Louisville, 11th ACC 21-22
Returners: Sydney Curry, El Ellis, Mike James, JJ Traynor, Roosevelt Wheeler, Jae’Lyn Withers
Departures: Dre Davis, Noah Locke, Jarrod West, Malik Williams
Arrivals: Fabio Basili, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (Tennessee), Kamari Lands, Hercy Miller, Devin Ree
The Cardinals are heading into their first year under new Head Coach Kenny Payne, who is a former Kentucky assistant and associate head coach before spending time with the New York Knicks the last couple of years. Having spent 10 years in the bluegrass state, he has ties to the area and should be able to recruit well. However, he has his work cut out for him this season.
There’s only 28.7 PPG of college basketball experience across seven different players. El Ellis is due for a big jump in production as pretty much the only ball handler on this roster, but the Brandon Huntley-Hatfield addition isn’t as big as it would’ve been when he was a high school recruit. Maybe the change of scenery will be good for him, but we’ll see.
What this roster does have is a ton of length on the wing, with there being 7 players in the projected top 11 of the depth chart listed between 6’8” and 6’10”. It projects to be a very good defensive team, with Sydney Curry locking down the middle despite being 6’8”, but I think Louisville is really going to struggle to score. Unless players like Jae’Lyn Withers and Huntley-Hatfield can take a big jump in production, it’s hard to see this not being a bottom 5 team in the league.
X-Factor: Sydney Curry. Curry possesses an elite motor and is a great rebounder, but how is he going to perform against the bigger centers in the ACC, like Naheem McLeod, Jesse Edwards, and Armando Bacot? If they can get enough good minutes out of him, they should be able to keep a lot of games close.
Projected Finish: 10-13th ACC Finish
Miami, 4th ACC 21-22, Elite Eight
Returners: Harlond Beverly, Deng, Gak, Bensley Joseph, Jordan Miller, Wooga Poplar, Jakai Robinson, Anthony Walker, Isaiah Wong
Departures: Kameron McGusty, Charlie Moore, Sam Waardenburg
Arrivals: Favour Aire, AJ Casey, Danilo Janovich, Norchad Omier (Arkansas State), Nigel Pack (Kansas State), Christian Watson
Miami is a tough team to project, at least for me. A lot of people are high on them because of their tournament run last season, but some of the biggest reasons for that run are gone in Charlie Moore, Kam McGusty, and Sam Waardenburg. I wasn’t the biggest fan of Waardenburg’s talent and skill level, but his ability to shoot from deep opened the floor for Isaiah Wong, Moore, and Kam McGusty to really attack the gaps.
Wong is one of the best shot makers in the country, and will now be joined by Pack, who is another phenomenal shot maker. Those two could average for 40+ PPG this season and it wouldn’t surprise me at all. They also got a transfer in Norchad Omier who was incredibly productive at Arkansas State, and chose Miami over Florida State. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs at this level, usually 6’7” post guys don’t excel at this level with DeJuan Blair sized exceptions.
While they are a little more balanced this year across the lineup, I think Omier is going to hurt their spacing just a little, especially because Jordan Miller and Anthony Walker are not great shooters from distance. People are sleeping on Harlond Beverly, if he can stay healthy, he’s a sneaky good player that can attack off of the dribble and be dangerous. At least they have a little talent down low as well, landing a top-100 player in AJ Casey, and a 4-star center in Favour Aire. While they still don’t have a ton of talent down there, they also don’t have to rely on Deng Gak at times anymore.
X-Factor: Harlond Beverly. I already kind of alluded to it above, but the depth is once again lacking on this team. If he can stay healthy, he brings a major threat off of the bench that teams have to account for.
Projected Finish: 3-6th ACC Finish
North Carolina, 2nd ACC 21-22, National Runner Up
Returners: Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, RJ Davis, D’Marco Dunn, Puff Johnson, Caleb Love, Justin McKoy, Will Shaver, Dontrez Styles
Departures: Dawson Garcia, Brady Manek, Kerwin Walton
Arrivals: Pete Nance (Northwestern), Tyler Nickel, Seth Trimble, Jalen Washington
On paper, this is easily the best team in the conference and one of the best in the country. Hubie Davis struggled at the start of his first season at the helm in Chapel Hill, but by the end of the season there were few teams playing better basketball (still scarred by their 24-1 run to start the game against FSU). They spoiled Coach K’s final season, both in Cameron Indoor, then again in the Final 4, and came up just short in the national championship to Kansas. Some could argue if Armando Bacot is playing at full strength, they win it all, and that’s hard to argue.
Really their only big loss was Brady Manek, whose ability to stretch the floor at an elite level and play small ball 5 really opened things up for the offense, and he was incredible in their tournament run. They’re really going to miss Manek, but Pete Nance is going to be able to do some of the same things Manek provided, and he’s going to step right in at the 4 while all the other starters remain the same.
They really only went 6-7 deep last year, but now all of last year’s newcomers should be caught up to speed giving them more depth. They should easily be able to go 9-10 deep now. It’s almost a wonder if they have TOO much talent. There’s a small chance they end up like last year’s UCLA team, one that surprised many with their Final Four run two seasons ago, but didn’t capitalize in the PAC-12 Tournament and bowed out in the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. A Sweet 16 appearance isn’t a disappointment for most teams, but it would be for this team.
RJ Davis and Caleb Love come back to bring a dynamic backcourt, Leaky Black is back to do all the dirty work, and Bacot will continue holding things down in the middle. If Puff Johnson, D’Marco Dunn, or Dontrez Styles take that next step, or if any of the talented freshmen can crack the rotation, there are few teams nationally that have the talent to keep up.
X-Factor: Pete Nance. How similar of a role can he play to how Brady Manek was playing at the end of last season? Everyone else should provide a similar level of play, but Nance is going to be asked to play that stretch 4/small ball 5 role. He should be able to, as someone that shot 45% from 3 a season ago, but Coach Davis is going to need to play to his strengths.
Projected Finish: Top 2 ACC Finish
NC State, 15th ACC 21-22
Returners: Ebenezer Dowuona, Casey Morsell, Breon Pass, Ernest Ross, Terquavion Smith
Departures: Jaylon Gibson, Cam Hayes, Jericole Hellems, Dereon Seabron
Arrivals: DJ Burns (Winthrop), Jack Clark (La Salle), Greg Gantt (Providence), Dusan Mahorcic (Utah), Jarkel Joiner (Ole Miss), LJ Thomas
This is the last ditch resort for Head Coach Kevin Keatts. His seat was already warm last year, and he made it through the offseason. To make up for losing Jericole Hellems and Dereon Seabron, he went out and got five transfers into the program to try and inject some life. Spoiler, I really don’t think it’s going to work out.
Terquavion Smith is an elite level talent, someone I was honestly surprised came back to school after having a lot of NBA first round buzz. His 36.9% from deep last season seems low, but he also hit 96 total triples on 8 attempts per game. I was lukewarm on him going into the FSU/NC State game last year, but he can just light nets up. It’s going to be interesting to see how he does as the likely focal point of the offense, but he should still be an elite player this season.
None of the other returners do much for me, even if Casey Morsell is a likely starter. I just don’t think he can be a reliable part of an ACC offense. The success of this team is going to come down to the transfers, the biggest of which being Jarkel Joiner from Ole Miss. Joiner was very productive for the Rebels, and should pair with Smith to make a nice duo in the backcourt. Everything else… I just don’t see it. DJ Burns was a good center for Winthrop, but as a starting center in the ACC, I don’t necessarily buy it. Jack Clark was never on a team that finished better than .500 at La Salle, and I think that trend continues here, as his fit in the offense could make things clunky. Dusan Mahorcic gave Utah some unspectacular minutes last season and is already on his third college program in his career.
There’s not much length and height on the roster, not a ton of shooting outside of Smith and Joiner, the rebounding is pretty unspectacular, the defense is going to leave a lot to be desired… So I ask, what exactly does this team do well? Time will tell.
X-Factor: Terquavion Smith. We’re going to see how much he can carry this team, because he and Joiner are the only players I like on this team. He could come out and average 20 PPG, and they could still go 5-15 in ACC play and I wouldn’t be surprised whatsoever. Nonetheless, scouts will be flocking to see Smith play this season.
Projected Finish: Bottom 5 ACC Finish
Notre Dame, 3rd ACC 21-22, Round of 32
Returners: Robby Carmody, Dane Goodwin, JR Konieczny, Nate Laszewski, Cormac Ryan, Tony Sanders Jr, Trey Wertz, Matt Zona
Departures: Paul Atkinson, Prentiss Hubb, Blake Wesley
Arrivals: Dom Campbell, Marcus Hammond (Niagara), Ven-Allen Lubin, JJ Starling
I think I’m higher on this team than most. Yes, losing Blake Wesley and Prentiss Hubb and Paul Atkinson are huge, huge blows. Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski are great returning players, Cormac Ryan was a steady contributor for them a season ago, and they get Robbie Carmody back from injury. Marcus Hammond was a very good player at Niagara, but obviously that’s a huge difference in competition level.
What will make or break this team is incoming freshman JJ Starling, a 5-star prospect out of La Lumiere, a prestigious school in Indiana, and he’s just a very solid, steady handed player that can score from all three levels. If he’s as good as I think he can be, Notre Dame suffers almost no drop-off. There’s definitely gonna be a drop off at the center position for them, Atkinson was so, so good for them last year, but Laszewski playing those minutes at the 5 opens the floor up for more slashing opportunities and much better spacing.
Mike Brey is a really good basketball coach, he’ll find a way to make this team work. There’s probably going to be someone we don’t expect that comes out and shoots 42% from 3 this year like it seems like they always have. Their biggest pitfall may be rebounding, it’s my biggest concern with this Irish team.
X-Factor: JJ Starling. The better he is right away, the better the overall team is. He's going to be able to get the ball where it needs to be, he's hopefully going to be solid under pressure, and he's going to be relentless attacking the rim. It's a great shooting team, Starling is going to have to do the rest of it.
Projected Finish: 3-6th ACC Finish
Pittsburgh, 13th ACC 21-22
Returners: Jamarius Burton, John Hugley IV, William Jeffress, Nate Santos, Nike Sibande
Departures: Mouhamadou Gueye, Ithiel Horton, Femi Odukale
Arrivals: Nelly Cummings (Colgate), Guillermo Diaz-Graham, Jorge Diaz-Graham, Greg Elliott (Marquette), Fede Federiko (Northern Oklahoma), Blake Hinson (Iowa State), Dior Johnson**
This was a team on paper that I actually liked as a sleeper team, one that could maybe sneak their way into the top half of the conference. John Hugley was an absolute beast last year, averaging 14.8 PPG and 7.9 RPG and 9 double-doubles. Coach Jeff Capel’s plan was to go out and surround him with shooters, which they did.
Nelly Cummings comes in from Colgate as a career 36.9% 3-point shooter, Greg Elliott comes from Marquette as a career 40.9% 3-point shooter, and they get Nike Sibande back from injury who shot 43.6% from 3 the last time he played a full season. Even Iowa State transfer Blake Hinson can step out and shoot a little bit at the 4. They also had landed one of the most highly rated recruits in Coach Capel’s tenure in Dior Johnson, a former Oregon and Syracuse commit, who decommitted late in the process before choosing the Panthers. Everything was pointing up for this team as he could be the ball-handler they’ve desperately needed.
Then the reports and charges were filed against Johnson last week of aggravated assault, plus some other things. The charges and story are pretty gruesome, and if he ever plays this season, it’s a mistake, assuming the police report is true. There were some red flags before he got to college with him attending 10 different high schools in 5 states over four years, but I don’t think anyone expected this.
Without Johnson, they’re going to have to lean on Jamarius Burton as a combo guard, and for Cummings to be a better playmaker than he was in the Patriot League. I think this is going to be another team that struggles against heavy pressure teams as they don’t have a ton of ball handling. Coach Capel has let me down before, and maybe they won’t even finish this high. We’ll see.
X-Factor: Nike Sibande. Getting him back from injury is going to be huge for the spacing and overall flow of this offense. The better he’s shooting and the more he’s playing, the more Hugley is going to be able to dominate down low.
Projected Finish: 9-12th ACC Finish
Syracuse, 9th ACC 21-22
Returners: John Bol Ajak, Jesse Edwards, Joseph Girard, Symir Torrence, Benny Williams
Departures: Frank Anselem, Buddy Boeheim, Jimmy Boeheim, Cole Swider
Arrivals: Chris Bunch, Maliq Brown, Peter Carey, Quadir Copeland, Mounir Hima (Duquesne), Judah Mintz, Justin Taylor
Coach Jim Boeheim is entering his 47th season as head coach of the Orange, an insane amount of time at one program. And while they were consistently one of the best teams in the nation over his tenure, they have missed the tournament in 3 of the last 8 seasons. This is likely going to be a bubble team. Boeheim is going to have to rely on a lot of freshmen this year, with 6 players in the projected top-10 of the depth chart are freshmen.
Girard is expected to play more off-ball this year, which I think is a good move for him, as he averaged 2.8 turnovers per game last year and had 4 turnovers or more in ten games. The addition of Judah Mintz, a 6’3” combo guard out of Oak Hill, gives them another ball-handler that they desperately needed, but he’s going to have to be good right away. We’ve seen Boeheim use freshmen well before, with Carmelo Anthony being the most notable example, but he’s also brought some freshmen along real slowly, like we saw with Benny Williams last year.
I think Williams is talented, but freshmen often take a while to get the intricacies of the 2-3 zone down which causes some defensive lapses. This should be a talented team offensively, but it usually takes a while for the zone to be playing like Coach Boeheim likes. There are a lot of finer details, like when to trap in the corner, that takes a while to become second nature.
X-Factor: Judah Mintz. He’s going to be relied upon more than most of the freshmen, the sooner he picks everything up, the better this team will be. Him being able to relieve Girard of primary ball-handling duties will help this team a lot.
Projected Finish: 6-9th ACC Finish
Virginia, 6th ACC 21-22
Returners: Reece Beekman, Francisco Caffaro, Kihei Clark, Armaan Franklin, Jayden Gardner, Taine Murray, Kadin Shedrick
Departures: Kody Stattman
Arrivals: Leon Bond, Ryan Dunn, Isaac McKneely, Isaac Traudt, Ben Vander Pleas (Ohio)
I’m not as high on this team as most, though they should still be a very tough out throughout the season because that’s just how Virginia is. It’s the exact same starting 5 as last year, a mostly veteran team that mostly struggled, so I don’t quite believe they’re automatically a tournament team again, though they should definitely be on the bubble at a minimum. Tony Bennett is too good of a coach, and their transfers from last year, Jayden Gardner and Armaan Franklin, get a second year in the system which will definitely help.
Not a huge believer in any of the newcomers, usually people that go from Ohio to Virginia don’t get a huge boost in production, and while they did land four 4-stars, it usually takes a while for freshmen to crack the top-7 rotation historically for Tony Bennett. If anybody can, it will be Isaac Traudt, because Virginia’s big man play was well below average for them a season ago. They’ve never had the BEST big men (except for when Jay Huff was rolling his last two seasons), but they’ve always had really dependable players like Jack Salt that play their role extremely well. Caffaro and Shederick could just never find a groove it felt like, and it’ll be interesting to see if they’re able to play more within the system.
I also don’t think they have nearly enough shooting. No one returning shot better than 34.8% from 3 last season, they shot 32% as a team last year, and only Ryan Dunn is a known shooter of the newcomers. Unless someone magically makes a jump, this is once again a team that is going to struggle on offense in what feels like Kihei Clark’s 10th season in Charlottesville (he was on that national championship team in the 2018-19 season).
X-Factor: The Bigs. Simply put, Virginia’s bigs have to be better this year. Caffaro and Shederick shuffling in and out of the starting lineup didn’t make things any easier for either of them. Coach Bennett needs to find one of them that works best and stick with them.
Projected Finish: 3-6th ACC Finish
Virginia Tech, 7th ACC 21-22, ACC Tournament Champion, Round of 64
Returners: Hunter Cattoor, Lynn Kidd, Darius Maddox, Justyn Mutts, Sean Padulla
Departures: Keve Aluma, Nahiem Alleyne, Storm Murphy, David N’Guessan
Arrivals: Grant Basille (Wright State), Darren Buchanan Jr, John Camden (Memphis), Michael Collins Jr, Mylyjael Poteat (Rice), Rodney Rice, Patrick Wessler
I honestly have no idea what to think of this team, and neither did Leonard Hamilton when he was asked about them at ACC Tip-Off in early October. They lost a ton of talent, including All-ACC performer Keve Aluma, as well as talented shooters in Alleyne and Murphy, but still bring back some lethal shooting in Justyn Mutts, Hunter Cattoor, Sean Padulla, and Darius Maddox. One thing about Mike Young, he is going to scour the mid-majors for more talent, and he did just that, landing Grant Basille from Wright State, who averaged 18.4 PPG and 8.5 RPG. If he can keep close to those numbers, they shouldn’t see too much drop off.
Where I’m concerned about this team is their playmaking and ball-handling, as Padulla is really the only one with experience in that regard. If he has issues staying healthy, like he did last year, there may not be anyone that can spread the ball around the floor enough to these talented shooters like Keve Aluma was able to do from the center position a season ago. Getting Mutts back after testing NBA Draft waters was a huge break for this program, as he is a solid defender and will be their go-to guy in most situations this season.
How the newcomers fit in will paint the biggest picture for this team. I expect John Camden to play well for this team after not really finding a way to crack Memphis’ rotation a season ago, and Basille should lock down the boards in the middle, and Mylyjael Poteat gives them some frontcourt depth they haven’t really had recently.
X-Factor: Sean Padulla. He HAS to stay healthy for them this season, otherwise, VT is going to have a tough time moving the ball around. Shooting won’t be an issue for this team, it really never is for a Mike Young coached team, and that ability to shoot the ball is going to have them win a couple games that they shouldn’t. Padulla has to be the guy getting everyone in their right places.
Projected Finish: 6-9th ACC Finish
Wake Forest, 5th ACC 21-22
Returners: Cameron Hildreth, Matthew Marsh, Robert McCray, Damari Monsanto, Lucas Taylor, Daivien Williamson
Departures: Jake LaRavia, Isaiah Mucius, Dallas Walton, Alondes Williams
Arrivals: Tyree Appleby (Florida), Davion Bradford (Kansas State), Andrew Carr (Delaware), Jao Ituka (Marist), Zach Keller, Bobi Klintman
Like Virginia Tech, I have no idea what to think of this team. It’s hard to imagine a team losing the ACC Player of the Year in Alondes Williams and a first round draft pick in Jake LaRavia as a team that can just move past it. Head Coach Steve Forbes went back to the transfer portal once again in hopes of finding similar success. I’m not 100% certain he found those guys.
Tyree Appleby was unspectacular at Florida and is on his third college team at this point in his career. Andrew Carr started to round into form towards the end of last season at Delaware and scored 13 on Villanova in the NCAA Tournament, but it’ll be interesting to see if his numbers carry over. Jao Ituka was productive for a bad Marist team, and Davion Bradford barely played for a below average Kansas State team. I’m not saying it’s impossible for any of these guys to be Alondes Williams or Jake LaRavia, but it’s not exactly likely.
What you can trust about this team is Forbes himself. He’s going to find a way to get the absolute best out of these guys, especially guys that he’s had in his system before. Damari Monsanto was Freshman of the Year in the Southern Conference for Forbes at East Tennessee State, but then tore his Achilles before transferring to Wake Forest. Now being two years removed from the injury, he has a big chance to break out into a major ACC player this season, and Coach Forbes is almost expecting it from him.
Projected starting center didn’t play much last year due to a concussion, but now he’s had a full offseason of work, and I’m not too sure what to expect of him. Daivien Williamson comes back as someone who quietly averaged 11.8 PPG last season, but I’m still not quite the biggest fan of his game. It’s a weird roster, and I have absolutely no idea what to think of them.
X-Factor: Damari Monsanto. If anyone can break out and become the go-to guy on this roster, it’s Monsanto. Now fully recovered and re-conditioned from his injury, they’re really hoping he can become a 12-15 PPG guy in a tougher league, because no one else on this roster seems to have that kind of potential.
Projected Finish: 7-10th ACC Finish.
My Pre-Season ACC Ballot
To me, there are 5 tiers of ACC teams this year: The True Contenders tier (Duke, UNC), the Flawed But Good tier (Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Virginia), the I Don’t Know But I Trust The Coaching tier (Virginia Tech, Wake Forest), the Don’t Sleep, But I Might Be Taking A Nap tier (Pittsburgh, Syracuse), and the I Won’t Be Watching For Fun tier (Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State).
UNC and Duke are loaded with talent, and it would take something severe for them to not be in the top 2. Florida State has a lot of talent, but is very inexperienced, Miami has little depth and not much size, Virginia doesn’t have much shooting/scoring, and Notre Dame is going to struggle to rebound. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest have so many question marks, but Mike Young and Steve Forbes do a phenomenal job of getting the best out of less talented players. Syracuse has a lot of youth, Pitt has almost no playmaking but they added some shooting around Hugley. Everyone else I just don’t think is good at all.
With that, here is my official pre-season ACC Ballot.
- North Carolina
- Duke
- Miami
- Florida State
- Notre Dame
- Virginia
- Wake Forest
- Virginia Tech
- Syracuse
- Pittsburgh
- Louisville
- NC State
- Clemson
- Boston College
- Georgia Tech
With the rest of the Preseason ACC Awards being announced today, here is how my ballot looked, starting with my Preseason All-ACC Team.
Armando Bacot, UNC
Isaiah Wong, Miami
Terquavion Smith, NC State
John Hugley, Pitt
Dereck Lively II, Duke
I really battled with who I was going to put as my 5th selection. The first four were all really easy for me, and it came down to Lively, Caleb Love, and Jayden Gardner for that last spot. Ultimately, I think Lively is going to be one of the best players in the conference this year despite being a freshman, so this was a little more projection than anything.
Preseason ACC Player of the Year
Isaiah Wong, Miami
This came down to Wong and Bacot, but ultimately Wong won out. His shot-making can just reach unreal levels, and I might be slightly biased towards elite guard play compared to elite big play.
Preseason ACC Rookie of the Year
Dereck Lively II, Duke
Not a surprise, considering I had him on my All-ACC team. Duke has a ton of talented freshmen that may try and take the shine away from each other, so any of them could win, but there really aren’t that many high-level freshmen in the ACC this year. JJ Starling would’ve gotten my other vote if I could’ve had two.
Even though 6th Man of the Year wasn’t a preseason vote, FSU has dominated this award recently, so Darin Green Jr would’ve had my vote if it was a preseason category.
That wraps up my ACC Preview, I hope it was lengthy enough to your standards! Next week, I’ll do my schedule preview while trying to keep it somewhat brief, but I never make a promise I can’t keep. We’re REALLY close to basketball season, ladies and gentlemen.
The Associated Press released their Top-25, the ACC has released their preseason polls… we’re so close. We’ve almost made it.
Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State basketball throughout the season.
