Game Preview: Florida State at UCF

There are going to be about 10 total people watching this game. Florida State is coming off of its worst loss in recent memory, dropping to Stetson at home by 9 points, while UCF lost at home to UNC Asheville in 2OT after allowing an opposing player to score 40 points. Both teams have a ton of newcomers, a ton of moving pieces, and are still trying to figure out just what exactly they are and how to put their guys in the best position possible.

We'll see how both of these teams respond to bad losses Monday night. This game will be on ESPN+ at 7 pm, live from the Addition Financial Arena in Orlando, FL.

UCF Knights Breakdown

Florida State wasn’t the only team in Florida to drop a disappointing game at home on Monday, as UCF lost to UNC Asheville in 2OT. While UNC-A had the best player on the floor in Drew Pember, that’s not really an excuse. UCF has talent, it’s just a lot of unproven talent like Florida State. The Knights only have four returning players, and two of them played little to no basketball last season. It’s a whole bunch of newcomers that are all trying to figure out how to play.

Of the returnees, CJ Walker and Darius Johnson are the only projected starters, but Walker has been dealing with some undisclosed injury and his status is up on the air, as is Johnson. I’m not expecting either to play in this game so we’ll see. That’s putting UCF into a high-profile game with no experience in the system.

What they do have is a lot of transfers. They have Ithiel Horton (Pitt), Michael Durr (Indiana), Brandon Suggs (East Carolina), and Lahat Thioune (Utah) who all project to be a part of the rotation. Horton lit Florida State up last season with a 7/13 performance from 3, and he could provide a similar performance here if FSU doesn't get their 3-point defense figured out.

There are a couple of things FSU should be able to take advantage of. UNCA shot 26 free throws Monday night, and FSU got to the line 27 times against Stetson. The big question is whether or not Florida State is going to hit its chances when they’re there.

They should also be able to generate some turnovers and grab offensive rebounds. UCF turned it over 14 times against an average turnover-generating team, and also allowed 12 offensive rebounds to a team that was one of the 30 worst offensive rebounding teams in the country last year. FSU should hopefully be able to take advantage of that.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

I talked after the game Monday about just how embarrassing a loss it was to fall to Stetson, but it’s been a long time since FSU dropped its season opener against a low-major school. The last time, it was November 2012 on the heels of FSU winning its first ACC Championship, and everyone was excited. Then South Alabama comes in and wins 76-71, first game of the year.

FSU would go on to finish 18-16 overall and 9-9 in ACC play. The only other time FSU has lost the season opener since then was 2019, when the ‘Noles dropped on the road at Pittsburgh, in what was a really weird game. FSU would lose just 4 games the rest of the year. Definitely not getting those vibes.

Caleb Mills needs to be a little more aggressive as a scorer when he’s out there. There are very few defenders that can stay in front of him, and while I get he’s trying to get everyone else involved, at some point he just going to have to take over.

Injury Report

Baba Miller is still suspended for the first half of the season due to NCAA rules.

Chandler Jackson is doubtful with a thumb injury.

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL tear.

Jeremiah Bembry is out indefinitely with a back injury.

De’Ante Green is out indefinitely as he recovers from an ACL injury, though there’s a chance he’s back by late January, according to Monday night’s broadcast.

Cam’Ron Fletcher was spotted with a back brace on the bench Monday night, and it sounded like he was playing through back spasms. He should still be playing against UCF, though.

For UCF, CJ Walker, Darius Johnson, and Tyem Freeman were all out with various injuries Monday against UNCA. Coach Dawkins had said Walker should return soon, but his status is still up in the air for this game.

Projected Starters

UCF

G: Jahylon Young

G: Ithiel Horton

G: Brandon Suggs

F: Taylor Hendricks

F: Michael Durr

Florida State

G: Caleb Mills

G: Tom House

G: Darin Green Jr.

F: Matthew Cleveland

C: Naheem McLeod

Keys to the Game

Naheem McLeod’s Impact

McLeod only played 10 minutes Monday night against a Stetson team that didn’t really have any bigs, and he was notably upset about it. He should get more opportunity against a UCF team that has a true 7-footer in Michael Durr, who played 26 minutes Monday night.

Whenever McLeod gets in the game, he has to make an impact. He can’t be having 1/5 games with the lack of depth FSU possesses right now.

Protect the 3

UCF is not a good 3-point shooting team overall, but the way FSU has defended the 3 recently means it can be anyone’s day at any time. Ithiel Horton especially can get hot. He’s a career 39% shooter from deep, including an insane 7/13 performance against FSU last year while he was at Pitt.

Florida State was burnt from 3 Monday night, allowing Stetson to shoot 14/35, they can’t allow that kind of performance again if they expect to win games.

Consistent Offense

Florida State’s offense stagnated at times Monday night, especially when Stetson went zone. Obviously part of it is not having a lot of depth, but UCF can put up points if you let them, and it may be needed for FSU to match them blow for blow, shot for shot. The big question is whether it not they’ll be able to generate consistent good looks.

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as a 1-point favorite, with an over/under of 144.5.

I have zero inclination on how this game is going to go. Florida State showed me pretty much nothing on Monday to be confident in them, but neither did UCF. I think… I think I’ll stay with FSU for now but I’m by no means confident about it.

FSU 77 - UCF 75

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