Game Preview: Florida State vs. Troy

Florida State is still looking for its first win of the season and will look to do it against a 2-0 Troy team. This is the first time FSU has started 0-2 since the 2000-2001 season, the second to last season under Steve Robinson. FSU would start 0-3 that season, and go on to finish just 9-21. Hopefully, this year's team ends up better than that, but they're already missing a ton of bodies, and have to overcome a ton of inexperience.

The 'Noles will look to respond tonight at 8 pm, back home in the Donald L Tucker Center, and it will be broadcast on ACCNX.

Troy Trojans Breakdown

Troy is entering this game 2-0, granted, they haven't beaten anyone you've heard of, as they were over Montevallo (a Division 2 school in Alabama) and MUW (the Mississippi University of Women... yes it was a men's basketball game). They absolutely dominated MUW and handled Montevallo handily, meaning they've got some confidence heading into this game, though we don't quite know how they'll look in this game against (supposed) stuffer competition.

Their leading scorer through the first two games is Nelson Phillips, who has scored 37 points, grabbed 17 rebounds, and dished out two assists... as a guard. He's their best perimeter attacker, and he's going to be relied upon to carry this Troy offense. He transferred over from Georgia State looking for more opportunity, and he's gotten that so far that's taken more than 20 shots. He and Aamer Muhammed have confidence shooting the 3, though it hasn't been falling yet for Muhammed.

Then they also have two guys down low in Zay Williams and Nate Tshimanga who are great rebounders that run on high motors. These two and Phillies have grabbed 17 offensive rebounds between the three of them, and are probably licking their chops watching the film.

Duke Miles came off of the bench in his one appearance this season and scored 18 points on 7/12 shooting, and he's going to be someone to watch as well. He was an expected starter but gives them another good scoring option on the wing if they need it, as no one else on the perimeter is a reliable shot-creator.

Overall, they're just an average shooting team (30.5% from 3 through two games), turn it over a decent amount (13.5 ToPG), and score a bunch, albeit against weaker competition. FSU is going to want to limit its good opportunities.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

FSU is coming into this game with 7 available players, with an 8th in question, depending on how Chandler Jackson is feeling. A team that finished last season snake-bitten is somehow even more troubled. The injury report below just keeps on growing.

They may have had a chance to beat UCF if they could've controlled the glass even just a little off-balanced. Instead, they were absolutely destroyed, being out-rebounded 52-22, the worst rebounding differential of the last decade for Leonard Hamilton. Size isn't the issue, even if the depth might. At some point, it comes down to effort. And right now, guys just don't look like they want to rebound. They're shooting the ball fine, having hit 12 of their 33 attempts so far, and they've forced 28 turnovers in 2 games. Just have to rebound.

The guards are going to have to be better in this one. Caleb Mills had just 6 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists on Friday night (though he did have 5 steals), and Jalen Warley had 3 points and 5 assists with no made field goals. These guys have to step up and lead. Performances like those aren't going to get this team anywhere.

I'm mainly watching to see if the coaches change the scheme up considering the lack of depth they have. You can't keep playing the same way when you potentially only have 7 players available. They may play the walk-ons here and there just for fouls purposes and to spell a few seconds, but there's no Harrison Prieto on this team, someone that has years of experience and knowledge, to provide quality minutes this time around.

Injury Report

The list just keeps on growing.

Naheem McLeod went down early in the game against UCF an wouldn't return. Coach Hamilton described it as an "Achilles issue" and will likely miss 6-8 weeks as he recovers, meaning FSU is missing their top two bigs.

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Jeremiah Bembry is out indefinitely with a back issue.

De'Ante Green is out indefinitely as he recovers from an ACL injury in high school.

Chandler Jackson is questionable to play as he recovers from a thumb injury, but it seems like there is a decent chance he plays.

Baba Miller is still suspended by the NCAA.

It seems like Troy is fully healthy.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

F: Cam'Ron Fletcher

F: Cameron Corhen

Troy

G: Aamer Muhammed

G: Nelson Phillips

G: Kieffer Punter

F: Zay Williams

F: Nate Tshimanga

Keys to the Game

REBOUND, REBOUND, REBOUND

Florida State was absolutely demolished on the glass Friday night at UCF, and they're going to have to find a way to fix it. I get that the team is missing their two best rebounders in Gainey and Miller, but at some point, guys are going to have to WANT to rebound, and I'm not certain that they want to. This can't be an even rebounding battle, FSU has to have a decent advantage in this game.

Stay Healthy

This isn't something that FSU can control, but they simply cannot afford any more injuries. Just find a way to not lose anyone else for a significant amount of time and they might be ok, but they may only have 7 guys available for this game, depending on what happens with Chandler Jackson.

Will the System Change?

FSU's style of play requires a lot of bodies and constant substitution, are they going to change things over the next few weeks to help the players out and put them in better positions to succeed? We saw them experiment with 1-3-1 zone a little bit against UCF, but they're going to need to continue to switch things up on both sides of the ball if they want to have success.

Game Prediction

Florida State sits as a 10-point favorite, with an over/under of 139.5.

I'm hoping to see some desperation out of this team, as they are sorely needing a win. I think they'll be able to get it, but it's going to be a tough battle, something that was unexpected as of two weeks ago.

FSU 66, Troy 63

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