Game Preview: FSU vs. Purdue
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This one could get ugly, folks. It was just a year ago in this same ACC/B1G Challenge where Florida State traveled up to West Lafayette, Indiana and lost by 28 points to an electric Purdue team, one that many considered to be one of the very best in the country at that time. Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams may be gone, but the program remains as the Boilermakers enter this game as the 5th ranked team in the country.
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It's also a Purdue team coming off of an 84-66 win over Gonzaga, then followed that up with a 75-56 win over Duke two days later. This team is no joke, and it's a little surprising to see the line as "close" as it is. We'll see if Florida State can find some advantages in this game to try and shock just about everybody.
This game will be at 7:15EST on ESPN2, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.
#5 Purdue Boilermakers Breakdown
As mentioned, Purdue has been off to a really strong start this season, with a 6-0 beginning to the season, and only one of those games finished with a single digit difference, a 75-70 win over Marquette (who just demolished Baylor, it’s a good team). Their other wins over Duke, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Austin Peay, and Milwaukee have been by an average of almost 20 PPG.
The driving force has been Zach Edey. Many wondered how he would look when he got more than 18-20 minutes per game, as he’s always been efficient but didn’t have to play as much when he had All-American Trevion Williams playing with him. Now up to almost 30 minutes per game, he’s even better: 21.7 PPG, 12.0 RPG (5 offensive), 2.3 BPG and just 2.2 fouls per game, all while shooting 61.5% from the floor and 75.6% from the free throw line. FSU is going to have to find a way to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.
If they do that, they’re going to have to recover to a couple of talented shooters, Fletcher Loyer is their second leading scorer at 11 PPG, and is shooting 38.5% from distance on 6.5 attempts per game; he’s been letting it fly. Loyer is one of those you have to run off of the line and force him into tough twos, as he’s only shooting 36% on 2s and just 69% from the FT line.
Braden Smith is the next in line for Purdue Point Guards, and he’s done an adequate job: 11.3 PPG, 3.2 APG, 4.7 RPG (at just 6’0” is impressive), while shooting 44.4% from 3 and 95% from the FT line. He’s also snatching two steals, so FSU’s guards are going to have to be careful with the ball, which they always haven’t been.
Those are the three main scorers on this team, but you’ll see 10 guys play double digit minutes and anyone is more than capable. Caleb Furst is a phenomenal off the bench rebounder and hustle guy, Brandon Newman comes off of the bench to give them perimeter shooting, Mason Gillis is a talented shooter, Ethan Morton is a good defender and both him and Gillis are knocking down their free throws.
The best way to describe Purdue is the exact opposite of Florida State. FSU has been fast but out of control, Purdue has been slow but extremely efficient. Despite having one of the slowest tempos in the country, they’re a top 5 offense. They work over and over to get the best shot, and against an FSU defense that has been caught out of position repeatedly, it could spell disaster.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
To say FSU is going in the wrong direction to start the season would be putting it lightly. They're coming off of a three game stretch where they averaged 1.25 made field goals per turnover, lost by a combined 44 points to Siena, Stanford, and Nebraska, and shot just 23% from 3. I've said, "this isn't Florida State Basketball" a few times recently, but at this point, it just isn't basketball.
They're one of the worst teams in the country at allowing offensive rebounding, are below average in literally every offensive statistic you want to look at (3pt%, 2pt%, FG%, turnover rate, FT %, Offensive rebound rate...), and just cannot seem to do anything right so far. Some of it can be blamed on injuries, chemistry, execution... there's a lot of blame that can be passed around. This team looked good in the games in Canada and now looks like they don't know how to play basketball. It's unnerving honestly.
This team has to find a way to come together and play as a team. More ball movement, more off-ball movement, more steady screening, more shot-making, more everything. These guys have to work to get each other open and they haven't been so far. It can get better (really, it's hard to get worse), but everyone has to be smarter and better.
I'm really curious to see how Florida State defends Zach Edey in this matchup, because if they continue switching 1-5 he will eat them alive. I'm also not implying that Naheem McLeod is the answer, because he's just not disciplined enough to hang with Edey for 25-30 minutes. It's going to take many different defenses and personnel, let's just hope the staff comes up with the right answers.
Injury Report
Baba Miller is suspended until mid-January for NCAA violations.
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Jeremiah Bembry is out indefinitely with a back issue.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr.
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cam'Ron Fletcher
C: Naheem McLeod
Purdue
G: Braden Smith
G: Fletcher Loyer
G: Ethan Morton
F: Mason Gillis
C: Zach Edey
Keys to the Game
Play Your Best Game
It's been less than inspiring play from Florida State to start the season, while Purdue has been absolutely rolling early on. FSU is going to have to play their best game for 40 minutes. 3s that weren't falling in Orlando need to fall, rebounding on both ends needs to be better, you have to be crisp in your rotations, know how you're playing certain personnel... Everything needs to be right for FSU. No careless turnovers, there needs to be effort when staying in front of your man defensively, and maybe attack certain players on Purdue to get them into foul trouble and out of the game early, even if they normally don't foul a lot. They can't come into this game playing the same style of basketball they've been playing.
Defense Against Zach Edey/Defensive Rebounding
Edey has been an All-American type player to start the season, averaging 21.7 PPG and 12.0 RPG (5.0 offensive rebounds per game), all while shooting 61.5% from the floor and 75.6% from the free throw line. His minutes are up (29.8 MPG) and his fouls are down (2.2 FPG), and he's still blocking a ton of shots. He's going to be more than Naheem McLeod can handle, or whoever they decide to switch onto him if they still want to switch 1-5 all game (please don't). How they decide to defend him, whether it's double teams, stunts, taking charges... it's going to have a massive impact on this game.
Then they have to finish those defensive possessions with a strong rebound. As mentioned above, Edey alone is averaging 5 offensive boards per game, and as a team Purdue grabs 12.5 offensive boards per game, while FSU gives up 13.5 offensive rebounds. If FSU doesn't shore this up, they could be in for an all-time whooping.
Playmaking
This is a two-handed key. On one hand, you can't let Purdue run the sets they want to. The ball pressure has to be present all game, and you have to force them into some turnovers, despite them being very good at protecting the basketball. On the flip side, Purdue doesn't force a ton of turnovers, so there can't be mental mistakes by Florida State. Get into your offense and make the right decision; play as a team. We haven't seen a lot of that in this game. FSU is going to have to force 15 or so turnovers while only coughing it up 8-10 times max themselves. They really need to dominate the turnover battle.
Game Prediction
Purdue opened as big favorites, with an advantage of 13.5 points and an over/under of 141. The line has since moved to Purdue -16.
Given that Purdue just beat Gonzaga and Duke by a combined 37 points, I don't see how FSU can even be competitive given their weekend. Maybe they'll come out and surprise us, but I'm not exactly holding my breath.
Purdue 87 FSU 65
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