NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: FSU Football vs. Virginia Cavaliers

The Florida State Seminoles (2-2, 0-1 ACC) are taking on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-1, 1-0 ACC) in their second conference game of the 2026 season.

Beginning with the Cavaliers, Florida State's October slate is one of the tougher in the conference, with upcoming games against Louisville, Miami, and Clemson.

Coming off an ACC Championship appearance, Virginia is primed to keep chugging along under Tony Elliott, who deserves credit for how he's turned the program around in recent years.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles look to win their first conference game of the season.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Sep 26, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) looks to pass during the second half against the Central Arkansas Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I wasn't impressed with Florida State's victory against Central Arkansas. Favored by 45 points, the Seminoles scored less than they did on the road in Tuscaloosa, and there's a real chance this team won't break the 40-point mark in a single game this season, which would be another first in the Mike Norvell era.

Watching the game from the stands, fans, rightfully, are as restfully as ever. Every time the Seminoles made a mistake, I could audibly hear people around me voicing their frustration, with most of tht directed at Norvell and Tony White.

To give up nearly 40 minutes of time of possession to Central Arkansas is simply embarrassing, in my opinion. Penalties helped extend some of the Bears' drives, but it's not a good sign that the Seminoles couldn't control more of the game with a lesser opponent in front of them.

The starting offense was solid, outside of Ashton Daniels and Quintrevion Wisner's miscommunication. Either way, Daniel has only thrown 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions this season.

Virginia won't be an easy opponent for the Seminoles. Honestly, the next month might get rough, and possibly finally mark the end of Norvell's time in Tallahassee.

The Cavaliers rank top-10 in the country and lead the ACC in time of possession. I've got a feeling they'll win that battle against Florida State, as the Cavaliers have a stable of backs and a mobile quarterback to lean on.

The Seminoles struggled to stop the run in the second half of the loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide wore Florida State down throughout the contest. I expect a similar game plan from Virginia.

The Cavaliers can do enough through the air, even if the majority of Beau Pribula's pass attempts are within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. Florida State's defense hasn't shown many positive signs in recent weeks.

Virginia's defense is also pretty good against the pass, so Ousmane Kromah and Ashton Daniels have to get make plays on he ground.

With what we've seen lately, it's just hard to pick the Seminoles in a game like this. I trusted Florida State on Labor Day, so I won't be doing it again this weekend.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 3-1

Cavaliers 34, Seminoles 26

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

My biggest concern is Florida State's defense stopping Virginia's offense. The thing is, the Cavaliers' offense isn't anything special, but it's going against a Tony White defense, which has been ridiculously bad.

I think Ashton Daniels will connect plenty with Duce Robinson like last season, but Virginia has a great passing defense this season. Look for a lot of burn for Ousmane Kromah. It would be nice if FSU could get any of their tight ends going, but that isn't happening.

I think the Seminoles keep it fairly close, competing not only against Virginia but the boos in the stands, but in the end, they take their second conference loss of the season.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 4-0

Cavaliers 33, Seminoles 26

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

This could go a lot of different ways score-wise. Both teams should have success running the football, as both defenses aren’t very good. I just think FSU’s defensive line is going to have a hard time going up against Virginia's retirement home of an offensive line.

It’ll come down to Ashton Daniels being decisive on his reads and pulls, and he’s shown nothing to make me think he can do that for four quarters

2026 Season Prediction Record: 4-0

Cavaliers 31, Seminoles 23

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Florida State needs to start fast on Saturday and keep its foot on the gas.

FSU has the offensive talent to pull off an upset, but it needs to sustain drives to do so. A path to victory exists, but the question is whether the Seminoles can dominate an ACC opponent. It has literally been years.

Tony White has emphasized taking away Virginia’s rushing attack, which averages 4.5 yards per carry. That ground game deserves respect, but I don’t see it as an insurmountable matchup.

The concern is what happens through the air. Beau Pribula has completed 66 of 86 passes this season for 793 yards and 11 touchdowns to one interception, and FSU’s depleted secondary leaves little room for mistakes.

I expect Virginia to move the ball and keep this competitive. But (gasp) I’m picking FSU to sustain enough drives, create a few game-changing plays, and get a timely defensive stop at home.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 4-0

Seminoles 31, Cavaliers 27

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Coming off a shocking season-opening upset of Alabama and two lopsided victories in the weeks that followed, the 2025 Florida State Seminoles appeared to be "back." A Friday night matchup with Virginia was all that stood between FSU and what was shaping up to be a top-25 showdown with Miami the following week.

Instead, the hype train came to a screeching halt in Charlottesville.

Tony Elliott's Cavaliers toppled the Seminoles in a double-overtime thriller, sending the UVA home crowd into pandemonium. The scenes from that fateful Friday night last September remain difficult to forget. In the year following that dramatic finish, the football programs at Florida State and Virginia have found themselves traveling in dramatically different directions.

Virginia rattled off six wins in its final seven games, earning a spot in the ACC Championship Game before closing the season with a victory over Missouri in the Gator Bowl. Florida State, meanwhile, lost six of its final eight regular-season contests, finished 2–6 in conference play, missed bowl eligibility, and finished with yet another losing season.

As the two programs enter 2026, those trajectories appear to be the same.

UVA opened the season with a hard-fought victory over a highly touted NC State team. In the weeks that followed, the Cavaliers delivered emphatic wins over Norfolk State and Delaware, scoring a combined 101 points in those two games, but dropped a close contest to West Virginia.

Behind starting quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Jekail Middlebrook, Virginia has scored more than 30 points in every game this season and enters the matchup ranked 37th nationally in rushing offense at 192.8 yards per game.

Florida State defensive coordinator Tony White is sure to have his hands full against the high-scoring Cavalier offense, and the numbers don't exactly favor the 'Noles. FSU's defense has surrendered 429.8 total yards per game this season, which ranks among the worst in the country.

The other side of the ball offers little relief for the Seminoles, either. The Hoos have held opponents to an average of just 247 total yards and 13 points per game, ranking among the nation's top 20 defenses in both categories. Florida State's offense, meanwhile, has experienced its fair share of scoring struggles.

Running back Ousmane Kromah has been the workhorse of the group, tallying 397 rushing yards and five touchdowns thus far. Through the air, Duce Robinson remains the Seminoles' primary receiving target, but turnover issues from quarterback Ashton Daniels have repeatedly stalled the offense and prevented it from settling into a rhythm, as evidenced by FSU's low scoring outputs against New Mexico State and Central Arkansas.

Consistency remains an issue for the 'Noles, and finding it against a Virginia defense that has been among the nation's best through four games will likely be an uphill battle.

Nearly 12 years have passed since Virginia last made the trip to Doak Campbell Stadium. In fact, the Cavaliers are 1-9 all-time in Doak, and their last win on Bobby Bowden Field came in 2011. When the Cavaliers return this weekend, however, the two programs will meet under circumstances that look drastically different from those of years past.

Part of me wants to believe that the home crowd can rally behind the Seminoles, but both last week's turnout and the overall negative sentiment that has gripped a large portion of the fanbase fail to inspire confidence.

Ultimately, I expect to see many of the same issues that have plagued the Seminoles in recent years: self-inflicted mistakes, subpar defensive play, and missed opportunities in the moments that ultimately decide a close game.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 4-0

Cavaliers 37, Seminoles 27

CONSENSUS: Virginia (4-1)

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