Predicting FSU's Three Most Likely Upsets on the 2026 Schedule

Florida State enters the 2026 season with one of the ACC's toughest schedules and plenty of questions to answer.

With multiple games expected to shape FSU's return to ACC contention, preseason projections have Mike Norvell's team hovering around the middle of the conference.

Looking ahead to the fall, the national outlook for Florida State is cautious, but there are a handful of games in which the Seminoles could outperform July expectations.

SMU Mustangs

Sep 28, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs safety Jonathan McGill (2) and Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Darion Williamson (21) in action during the game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Seminoles will host SMU at Doak Campbell Stadium in just the second week of the season, with the Mustangs entering 2026 as one of the conference's top contenders after reaching the College Football Playoff two years ago.

With SMU the current 2.5 point favorite, DraftKings.com views the two teams as essentially even on a neutral field.

SMU enters as one of the contenders to compete for the ACC title, while Florida State has plenty to prove after a 5-7 campaign that fell well short of expectations. The Mustangs know they'll be facing a talented Seminoles roster, but there won't be much film on Mike Norvell's revamped offense with Ashton Daniels at quarterback or Tony White's defense in live-game situations.

The home- field advantage and lack of film could work in Florida State's favor in a matchup that might be decided by only a few plays.

Louisville Cardinals

Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) sprints down the field towards the end zone. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the Louisville Cardinals 16-6 to claim the ACC Championship title in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Louisville has become one of the ACC's most consistent programs under Jeff Brohm. FSU's road struggles ultimately make it one of the toughest games of the regular season. The Friday night matchup could also serve as a measuring stick for how much progress the Seminoles have made.

If the Seminoles can leave Louisville with a win, it would signal that Norvell's rebuilt roster can compete with the ACC's top programs away from Tallahassee.

Both teams will be relying on transfer portal additions to reshape their programs, with Louisville facing significant turnover up front. That said, Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz is a major reason the Cardinals are expected to contend in the ACC once again. The former four-star prospect gives Brohm another talented quarterback to build around and raises the degree of difficulty for a Seminoles defense looking to take a step forward under Tony White.

FSU's roster is talented enough that this isn't David vs. Goliath. If the offensive line comes together, the Seminoles have the athletes to match Louisville, and UL isn't the same finished product as it was last year.

By the time Florida State travels to Louisville, many of the questions surrounding the Seminoles should have answers.

Virginia Cavaliers

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Ja'Bril Rawls (11) attempts to catch a pass intended for Virginia Cavaliers running back Xavier Brown (20) at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Recent history has shown that Florida State can't afford to overlook any ACC opponent, and this one requires a little more context than the previous two. While the betting line may not label this as an upset, the perception and positioning on the schedule could make beating an improving UVA squad at home feel like one.

A 2-2 start with losses to SMU and Alabama would likely leave a lot to be desired about FSU, even with the game being played at Doak Campbell Stadium. If Virginia also builds confidence with a win over Delaware the week before, the matchup could feel more balanced than expected.

The Seminoles dropped a 46-38 double-overtime thriller to Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2025, making it a loss that defined a season-long stretch of struggles. A victory over the Cavaliers in 2026 would offer an opportunity to show that those issues are in the past.

Pitt, Clemson, and even Miami could take on a different picture as the season unfolds. However, SMU, Louisville, and Virginia offer a clear path to outperform expectations.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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