Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Syracuse Orange
Florida State has started 5-0 for the first time since 2015 and is looking for a 12th straight win, dating back to last season. Syracuse enters this game 4-2, having started off the season strong, but have fallen well short in their first two ACC games against Clemson and North Carolina, losing by a combined score of 71-21.
READ MORE: FSU Head Coach Mike Norvell Wants Seminoles to 'Push For That Edge'
FSU has dominated this series since the Orange entered the ACC, with the Seminoles winning eight of the nine matchups since 2013.
It's Florida State's second straight home game with a sold-out crowd, and the contest will kick off at 12:00 EST on ABC.
Seminole Headlines
Running Game Found Its Rhythm
Florida State had mostly struggled running the football early on this season, averaging right around four yards per carry in their first four games. They blew that out of the water against Virginia Tech, averaging 9.6 yards per carry on the back of Trey Benson, who ran for 200 yards on just 11 carries, the first running back at FSU to rush for 200+ since Dalvin Cook in 2016. Lawrance Toafili also had a big run early, body-surfing across a couple of Virginia Tech defenders to get into the end zone.
It's important that this success translates over, as Mike Norvell loves using the running game to set up the pass. It seemed like the answer to success against VT, who has a fairly weak defense against the run, was to spread out the offense and not muddle things for the offensive line in the middle. A lot of Syracuse's base-level stats are inflated by weaker opponents to start the year, but in their last two games against UNC and Clemson, they've allowed a total of 328 yards on the ground at around four yards per carry. If Florida State's running game has even close to the same success they had last weekend, it's going to make life much easier for the entire offense.
Preventing Explosive Plays
StatBroadcast defines big plays as any rushing play of 10+ yards or a pass play of 15+ yards. Virginia Tech had nine such plays (7 rushing, 2 passing) against the 'Noles last Saturday. Since Syracuse lost All-ACC tight end Oronde Gadsden II, the offense has really struggled to produce those explosive plays, with just 1tentotal big plays in the last two weeks combined.
If Florida State is going to dominate the way it should in this game, the latter trend of Syracuse struggling to find big momentum plays has to continue. As the defense should hopefully be getting linebacker Tatum Bethune closer to full strength, that should help some of the miscues in the run game we saw last week. Syracuse really hasn't shown anything on film to suggest they can hit those big gains or even generate the long, sustained drives against FSU as long as the front seven comes to play.
Garrett Shrader's Impact
Shrader has the tools to be a dual-threat QB, putting up close to 400 yards and six TDs on the ground already this season, but has largely been held in check in ACC play. We saw last week, and really have seen all season long, how the defense can struggle against QBs that use their legs to extend plays and drives. As with Bethune coming back hopefully, Kalen DeLoach and DJ Lundy are going to have to not fall for any eye candy when it comes to handoffs, play actions, or potential RPOs as play sound, disciplined football.
The passing game has really struggled since Gadsden went down, and they have just a combined 310 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs in their last two games. There seemed to be some success with WR Umari Hatcher that FSU may want to focus on a little bit, otherwise, this isn't a passing game that should find much success.
Burning Questions
How's Johnny?
Florida State WR Johnny Wilson went down last week with some injury after getting hit hard across the middle of the field, and it hasn't been entirely clear what his status will be heading into this week. Personally, I think this is the kind of game where you can afford to sit him, or use him as just a "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" kind of player, like needing a touchdown in the red zone late in the game, or something similar.
We've been looking for anyone outside of Wilson and Keon Coleman to see targets in the passing game, and this is the perfect opportunity for Jordan Travis to build in-game timing and chemistry with other receivers, such as Ja'Khi Douglas, Destyn Hill, Deuce Spann, Darion Williamson, and Kentron Poitier. Even with Winston Wright leaving the program, if Travis can find success with the other guys, it only makes the offense that much more dangerous when Wilson is 100%, or close to it.
Can the Offense Attack the Middle of the Field?
Syracuse was taken advantage of last week in the middle of the field, as their linebackers were seemingly afraid of the threat of Drake Maye using his legs and running, and it left a ton of room for Maye to throw behind the linebackers for solid gains. If they were concerned about Maye running, I can only imagine what their game plan will be against Jordan Travis, which makes it even more imperative that he finds success with his other receivers.
It looked like last week that UNC was stretching the field horizontally first to set up the intermediate to deep throws, and wouldn't be surprised to see a similar gameplan for Florida State. They've loved the WR screens early on this season, and have seen mixed results from it. I fully expect to see some screens early, seeing if FSU can follow the same blueprint that UNC laid out.
Will the Defense be Able to Get Off of the Field on 3rd Downs?
Syracuse has been good all season on 3rd downs, converting 49.4% of them, good enough for 17th nationally. However, against UNC, they were just 4/11. If it's like their game against Clemson, and they end up 9/17 on 3rd downs, this may end up being a little close for comfort.
I know the "3rd and Fuller" joke has gotten around this season, especially after the Boston College game, but FSU is top-20 nationally in 3rd down defense at 31.9%, bolstered by a great 2/13 performance last week against Virginia Tech. If Florida State's defense comes out with that kind of performance, this really shouldn't be that close of a game.
Game Forecast
Florida State sits as favorites by 17.5 points, with a projected total of 56.5, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. That line seems low to me.
Syracuse hasn't shown anything on film in the last few weeks to suggest they can keep this game close. So barring some kind of epic noon game collapse from FSU's defense, or the offense getting complacent and allowing Syracuse to climb back in the game, this really shouldn't be close. I think Florida State comes out with energy for the 1993 National Championship team makes their return to Tallahassee, and stays on the gas early and often.
I've got FSU 44-9.
READ MORE: Veteran Wide Receiver Is No Longer Listed On Florida State's Roster
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