Could Josh Okogie Be An X-Factor For A Phoenix Suns Playoff Run?
The Phoenix Suns made the NBA Finals two seasons ago and were the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season before being humiliated in game seven of the Western Conference semifinals by the Dallas Mavericks. The Suns were having a decent season to start, but it did not feel like they had the ingredients to make another run at the NBA Finals.
Then the biggest trade of the season shook up the NBA landscape.
Shortly before the NBA trade deadline, the Suns sent Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, and four unprotected first-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Kevin Durant. Durant was injured at the time, but was in the thick of the NBA MVP conversation and has been amongst the NBA's best players for at least a decade now.
While Durant is the headliner, the aftermath of the trade left Phoenix with little depth and not many avenues to add players outside of the buyout market. One of the guys that was already there was former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Josh Okogie, who signed with the Suns during the summer of 2022.
Josh Okogie has stepped up big for the Phoenix Suns this season
During the months of October and November, Okogie did not play big minutes, but he saw an increase in those minutes in December and made the most of those opportunities, including scoring a career high 28 points against the Boston Celtics on December 7th.
When Phoenix got healthier, Okogie's minutes took a hit, but that changed in February with the Durant trade. When Phoenix made that trade, they sent away three valuable wing players and while any team would do that for a player of Durant's caliber, their depth took a serious hit. The big question for the Suns was going to be who the fifth starter was alongside Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton.
Okogie had to take on an even bigger responsibility after the trade because Durant was injured and the lack of bodies on the perimeter for Phoenix. He averaged nearly 33 minutes a game during the short month and scored at least 24 points twice.
Phoenix has as much top talent as any starting five in the NBA heading into the playoffs, but the questions for them are going to come about their bench and their depth, especially considering that Durant and Paul are both older and injury prone. Typically, NBA champions have 7-8 guys they can trust in a playoff series, but the Suns only have a clear cut four right now. Someone is going to have to step up and play a meaningful role as a role player for this team if they are going to make the NBA finals run that they are capable of.
I think Okogie is that guy.
He is going to be fighting for minutes with guys like Torrey Craig and Damion Lee, but I believe Okogie will win out in that battle and the advanced stats back that up.
When looking at 538's RAPTOR, Okogie has the third best score on the Suns with a +4.0 and most of that coming because of his defense, which is the highest on the team at +4.
Here is what RAPTOR is, as explained by 538's Nate Silver:
"RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. We’re pretty excited about it. In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours:
First, we wanted to create a publicly available statistic that takes advantage of modern NBA data, specifically player tracking and play-by-play data that isn’t available in traditional box scores.
Second, and relatedly, we wanted a statistic that better reflects how modern NBA teams actually evaluate players.
RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. Likewise, a player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team’s defensive performance1 by 3.4 points per 100 possessions while he’s on the court"
Josh Okogie is one of the top defenders on the Suns this season
When you look at RAPTOR, Okogie also has the fourth-highest WAR (Wins above replacement) on the team with 4.4, behind Durant, Booker, and Paul. His defense could be critical in playoff series against some of the top teams in the league because their perimeter defense is going to be a question. Durant I still think is their best overall defender, but having Okogie in the lineup will be a plus for this defense and Paul has recently voiced the impact that Okogie has made recently for them:
When trying to figure out the best lineups for the Suns, the top one since Durant came over has been Paul, Booker, Okogie, Durant, and Ayton per Cleaning the Glass. That lineup has played 224 possessions together and is +20.1 overall and defensively they are only allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass, which is pretty good. He is a good three-point shooter for this team and that is what he going to be asked to bring on that end. Booker and Durant are going to be high usage and shot taking players and that should leave Okogie with open attempts and he is going to need to hit them at a high enough clip if he wants to remain in the main rotation when the playoffs. He is a +3.4 per 100 possessions when he is on the floor per Cleaning the Glass.
His teammates seem to love him too:
I think the former Georgia Tech star has a real chance to make a difference this postseason because as talented as Phoenix is, teams can't win championships without strong role players and he is going to have a chance to be the X-factor for this team that is hoping to win an NBA Championship this summer.
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