Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Georgia Tech vs NC State

After a big win on the road vs Pittsburgh this week, Georgia Tech is back at home and looking to get their ninth conference win of the year when they face NC State. The Yellow Jackets are in position for a 1st round bye in the ACC Tournament if they can finish their final three games strong.

Tech (14-14, 8-9 ACC) captured a 73-67 win Tuesday at Pittsburgh to earn a split of its two-game road trip, and comes back home having won five of its last seven games. The Yellow Jackets have won their last four ACC home games, including a 60-52 win over Stanford and a 90-88 overtime win against Stanford in mid-February, a 77-70 win over No. 21 Louisville to open the month, and a 71-64 win over Virginia Tech on Jan. 22. Tech also has won twice on the road (Pitt and its 3-OT win at Clemson) during February.

NC State (11-17, 4-13 ACC) lost nine-straight games between Jan. 11 and Feb. 12, but has rebounded to split its last four, including a 70-62 win over Boston College and an 85-73 win over Wake Forest, both at home. The Wolfpack come to Atlanta on the heels of a 74-60 loss Wednesday to Syracuse on the road, where they are 0-9 this season.

Tech has won 5 of its last 7 games, 6 of its last 9.

Georgia Tech is 12-5 on its home court after beginning the season 2-3, and 6-2 in ACC games, having clinched its first winning home conference record since the 2020-21 season, when the Jackets were 8-1.

Tech has won 4-straight ACC games at home, the first time the Jackets have accomplished that since late in the 2019-20 season, when they won their final 7 ACC home games.

Georgia Tech is 3-5 in games vs. Quad 1 teams this season with wins over Louisville on 2/1, Clemson on 2/4 and Pittsburgh on 2/25, and have one more opportunity at Wake Forest next Saturday. The Jackets are 7-12 vs. Quad 1 teams under Damon Stoudamire.

Tech’s win over Pitt coupled with Virginia Tech’s loss to Louisville Tuesday night and Florida State’s loss to North Carolina Monday leaves the Yellow Jackets alone in 8th place in the ACC standings heading into this weekend’s games. Tech remains in position for a first-round bye in the ACC Tournament if the tournament were to begin today.

NC State has won the last four games in the series, winning the teams’ only regular-season meeting in 2023-24 (82-76 in Raleigh), sweeping the regular-season series from Tech in 2022-23 and winning the final meeting of 2021-22. Tech won four straight games prior to that.

NC State has a 61-44 lead in the overall series which dates back to 1925. Georgia Tech had won four straight meetings and five of six prior to the Wolfpack’s current four-game winning streak. The teams did not play during the 2020-21 season due to COVID issues.

Tech is 24-20 against the Wolfpack in Atlanta, including one home-court meeting that was played at the Omni in 1986 and one at Philips Arena in 2012. NC State is 5-2 against the Yellow Jackets at McCamish Pavilion.

In Tech’s last 7 games, Tech’s sophomore duo of Naithan George and Baye Ndongo have accounted for nearly half of the Yellow Jackets’ points (250 of 504), and they have scored 91 of Tech’s 181 field goals and 45 of its 90 free throws.

Tech has attempted 66 more free throws than its opponents in ACC play (+3.9 per game). The Yellow Jackets have not finished a season with more free throw attempts than their opponents since the 2016-17 season, and only once since 2000.

Tech is No. 2 in the ACC in limiting league opponents’ trips to the free throw line, holding them to a 24.7% rate of FTA to FGA. Tech has committed 19 fewer fouls than its opponents over its last 7 games.

Tech has utilized 9 different starting lineups through 28 games this season, all because of injury. Twelve different players have started a game for Tech this season, 11 different players have started an ACC game.

Baye Ndongo and Naithan George are the only Yellow Jackets to have appeared in every game this season. No one else has started more than 20, and only one (Lance Terry) has started more than 11.

Five Yellow Jackets have averages in double-digits for ACC games – Naithan George (14.8), Lance Terry (14.3), Duncan Powell (14.1), Baye Ndongo (13.2) and Javian McCollum (12.9). All five players are averaging in double figures for the full season as well, something that hasn’t happened for the Yellow Jackets since 1991-92 and only three times in program history.

Tech has exceeded 1 point per possession in 8 of its last 10 games and is 6-4 in those games. The Jackets have limited their opponents to less than 1 point per possession only 3 times in that stretch, winning all 3 (Virginia Tech, Louisville, Stanford).

Duncan Powell averaged 16.7 points and 4.7 rebounds over his last 10 games, scoring double digits 9 of them and 20 or more in 3 games. The Sacramento State transfer hit 44.2% (53-of-120) from the floor, 39.3% (24-of-61) from three-point range and 75.5% (37-of-49) from the foul line in that stretch.

Lance Terry logged his first complete game of the season, never leaving the court at Pittsburgh. He logged six 40-minute games during the 2022-23 season.

Over Tech’s last 11 games (beginning with Clemson on Jan. 14), Baye Ndongo has averaged 14.1 points (10 double-digit games) and 11.8 rebounds (8 double-digit games). He has shot 52.6% percent from the floor, while recording 18 assists, team-high 15 blocked shots and a team-high 16 steals.

Ndongo could become only the second Tech player, since blocked shots and steals began to be tracked as official statistics in 1976-77, to lead the Yellow Jackets in both categories. The sophomore leads Tech in blocked shots (27) and is second to Lance Terry in steals (29 to Terry’s 31). Ndongo does, however, lead the Jackets in both categories in ACC games (20 each).

Naithan George bounced back from a 9-point effort at Boston College to score 16 at Pitt, giving him 14 double-figure scoring games in his last 15.

Across his last 6 games, which includes 4 straight 20-point efforts against Clemson, Virginia, Stanford and California, George has averaged 18.1 points, 6.0 assists and 5.3 boards.

George has either scored or assisted on HALF (91 of 181) of Tech’s field goals over the Yellow Jackets’ last 7 games (5-2 record). His 46 field goals and 45 assists both lead the team, and he also has the most free throws made and attempted (25-of-29) over that period.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Georgia Tech is a 4.5 point favorite today vs the Wolfpack and the over/under is set at 140.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Prediction

Georgia Tech is playing well right now and while the Wolfpack have been a poor team this season, they are going to be fighting for their life to make the ACC Tournament and they will see this game as winnable. Still, Georgia Tech has been playing well at home, not to mention getting bounce back games from Nait George and Duncan Powell on Tuesday. I like the Yellow Jackets to win and get above .500 heading into their final two games of the year.

Final Score: Georgia Tech 78, NC State 72 (Georgia Tech -4.5 and Over)

Additional Links

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