Updated FPI Win Total and Probabilities For Georgia Tech After Week Five Results

Did FPI chance their outlook for Georgia Tech after the week five results around the ACC?

Sep 26, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Alberto Mendoza (15) warms up before the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Georgia Tech was off in week five after their 1-3 start to the season, but several of the teams that they face in the coming weeks were in action.

Virginia Tech looked like they were on their way to a 5-0 start, but it was Pitt who came back and won the game, despite losing their star quarterback midway through. Boston College hung tight with SMU, but lost; Louisville had another surprise loss, this time at the hands of NC State; Clemson was blown out by Miami; Wake Forest and Georgia scored impressive wins.

Needless to say, it was an interesting Saturday for many of Georgia Tech's opponents. How did ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) change its outlook for Georgia Tech's season in the final eight games?

FPI Updates Prediction for Georgia Tech's 2026 Season

• Duke: 27.5%
• at Virginia Tech: 20.7%
• Boston College: 71.3%
• at Pittsburgh: 12.2%
• Louisville: 26.7%
• at Clemson: 25.4%
• Wake Forest: 23.7%
• at Georgia: 2.2%

As you can see, FPI is not high on Georgia Tech's chances the rest of the way and a lot of the win probabilities look the same.

Given how Georgia Tech has played, these numbers are not all that surprising. What is disappointing at the moment is how Georgia Tech is probably not going to be able to take advantage of a wide open race to get to the ACC Championship. Miami is the overwhelming favorite to get to Charlotte, but who the Hurricanes will face is up in the air. Given that they only have one loss in conference play, the Yellow Jackets are still technically alive, but they are going to have to improve by leaps and bounds over the next seven weeks.

It starts this Saturday against a 4-0 Duke team that is looking to get back to the ACC Championship and win it once again. Given how Duke lost Darian Mensah, Cooper Barkate and others in the transfer portal, it is impressive how Manny Diaz has gotten this group to start the year unbeaten and form an identity around running back Nate Sheppard and an attacking defense.

If Georgia Tech does go 2-10 as FPI is currently predicting, that would be an unmitigated disaster of a season. The Yellow Jackets have taken big steps forward in each of Brent Key's three seasons as head coach, but going from three straight bowl game appearances to a 2-10 season would be an unexpected step back.

Only time will tell.