Biggest threats to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament

With Selection Sunday just over one week away, Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs are trending toward a top four seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Gonzaga (28-3) is currently No. 6 in the NET with a 6-2 record in Quad 1 games. They are also No. 11 at KenPom and No. 12 in wins above bubble (WAB) which puts them squarely in the conversation as a No. 3 seed - provided they take care of business in the WCC Tournament.

The Zags will play in the conference semifinals on Monday at 6:00 PM PT, against either Oregon State, San Francisco, or Portland. Oregon State, the No. 4 seed, will host the winner of Saturday's matchup between No. 5 San Francisco and No. 9 Portland. The Pilots have won two games in a row to keep their season alive, defeating No. 12 Pepperdine on Thursday and No. 8 Washington State on Friday.

Should Gonzaga advance to the WCC championship game they would play one of No. 2 Saint Mary's, No. 3 Santa Clara, No. 6 Pacific, or No. 7 Seattle - who defeated No. 11 San Diego in the second round on Friday night.

A loss for Gonzaga in any capacity would be a pretty big dent to their NCAA Tournament seeding hopes, but not all conference losses are created equal.

Below is a look how a loss to any of the teams remaining in the WCC Tournament would impact Gonzaga's projected seed in the big dance:

The Dark Horse Disasters

Portland and Seattle are the two biggest threats to Gonzaga from a seeding perspective. Both teams have a tough road ahead of them to even face the Zags, but each of these teams has proven capable of taking down coach Few's squad.

Portland knocked off Pepperdine, 77-68, on Thursday before picking up a similar 74-68 win against David Riley and the WSU Cougars. The Pilots went a combined 0-4 against those two teams in the regular season, yet found a way to get it done in March when it counts the most. Whether they can keep the momentum going against San Francisco - who beat them 73-68 in early January - remains to be seen, but as long as Joel Foxwell keeps carving defenses up, and Jermaine Ballisager-Webb stays hot, this team is capable of staying in this fight.

Zag fans certainly don't need a reminder of this team's ability to take them down, having done so at the Chiles Center back on Feb. 4. While Gonzaga bounced back by beating the Pilots by 41 in their home finale, coach Shantay Legans' team is the biggest threat to Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament hopes simply by being a Quad 4 loss that would also serve as a narrative nightmare for the Zags heading into Selection Sunday.

While Seattle didn't defeat Gonzaga like Portland did, they came awfully close. Coach Chris Victor's team led most of the contest in Spokane back on Jan. 2 before the Zags came back, forced overtime, and won in the final five minutes. The Redhawks are an exceptional defensive team that loves to mix coverages and make life difficult for opposing big men.

A matchup with Portland requires the Pilots to beat both San Francisco and Oregon State - difficult, but not impossible. However a matchup with Seattle requires the Redhawks to beat Pacific, Santa Clara, and Saint Mary's on back-to-back-to-back days, which would be an extraordinary feat.

Still, both teams have proven capable of beating Gonzaga, and both would be a problematic loss for the Zags from an NCAA Tournament seeding perspective. A loss to Portland ends Gonzaga's 29 year streak of making the WCC championship game, and robs the Zags of a chance to pick up a marquee win on Tuesday. That could be enough to drop GU all the way to a No. 5/6 seed on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile, a loss to Seattle would at least mean Gonzaga won one more game in the semifinals, making a 4/5 seed the most likely outcome.

Unlikely Threats

Gonzaga is most likely going to play one of Oregon State or San Francisco on Monday night. The Zags beat the Beavers by 20 in Corvallis in their lone matchup of the season, thanks to a massive 35 point performance from Graham Ike on 13-18 shooting. Oregon State can really light it up from deep and is among the best free throw shooting teams in the country, making them a scary team to let hang around.

The Zags also handed San Francisco a 21 point loss on the road this year, but the Dons nearly took them down in Spokane thanks to a ridiculous 14-28 shooting performance from three. Had USF made 15 they would have pulled off the stunner, but Barry Wang's game winning attempt fell off the rim.

Both teams are comfortably in Quad 3 territory, and neither would be as bad from an optics perspective as Portland or Seattle, but both are capable of taking Gonzaga to the brink on Monday.

No. 6 seed Pacific faces Seattle on Saturday night, and should they go on a heater and beat the Redhawks, Broncos, and Gaels they would present a challenge for Gonzaga on Tuesday in the title game.

Dave Smart's team played well against the Zags in Spokane thanks to tough defense on the interior and the performance of star forward Elias Ralph and shooter TJ Wainwright on the perimeter. The odds of Pacific making it to the title game are very slim, but they did give Gonzaga serious trouble a few weeks ago.

A loss to either OSU or USF pushes Gonzaga to No. 5 seed territory, potentially No. 6 if things break poorly for them otherwise. A loss to Pacific is similar, but it would at least mean the Zags won in the semifinals.

The 'Good' Losses

There are two teams far more likely than anyone else to knock out Gonzaga in the WCC championship game - Saint Mary's and Santa Clara.

The Gaels are the only team to beat the Zags in the conference championship dating back to 2008, and they would love nothing more than to do so one last time before Gonzaga's move to the Pac-12. Saint Mary's also beat Gonzaga in the regular season finale back on Feb. 28, thanks to a scorching hot night from the perimeter, while the Zags took down the Gaels the first time around in Spokane.

Meanwhile, Gonzaga managed to sweep Santa Clara this season, although it wasn't easy. The Broncos are an elite shooting team with high level scorers all over the floor - including guards Christian Hammond and Elijah Mahi, freshman forward Allen Graves, and sharpshooters Jake Ensminger and Brenton Knapper.

The good news for Gonzaga is both these teams will end up being Quad 1, meaning a win provides a big boost for the resume - while a loss wouldn't be as catastrophic as it would against any other potential conference opponent.

Currently Gonzaga is expected to land as either a No. 3 or No. 4 seed, and a loss to either SMC or Santa Clara doesn't change that projection all that much. It probably makes a 4-seed more likely than a 3-seed, but wouldn't be a killer for the Zags resume wise.