Gonzaga trending toward No. 3 seed in latest NCAA Tournament projections

Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs battled preseason eligibility issues, multiple injury absences, illnesses, and prolonged shooting slumps to finish the regular season with an excellent 28-3 record and the No. 1 seed in the WCC Tournament.

It was a season of adjustments for coach Few, who used 13 different starting lineups across 31 games. Some players began the season in the starting five and ended it out of the rotation entirely, while others did the opposite.

All told, it was a tremendous coaching job from the Hall of Fame finalist, who put his team in position to earn a top-four seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Selection Sunday is just around the corner, and while the Zags still need to take care of business in Las Vegas in their final run through the West Coast Conference Tournament, a clear picture of what seed this team could earn in the big dance is beginning to take shape.

Right now, many prominent bracketology experts have the Zags lining up as a No. 3 seed, which should slot them in the West Region where they would play their first two round games at the Moda Center in Portland, OR.

Third is the Word

Currently, as of March 6, Gonzaga is sixth in the NET, 11th at KenPom, and 12th in wins above bubble - or WAB - three crucial metrics used by the Selection Committee to determine seeding.

If Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament, they'll not only head into Selection Sunday with a 30-3 record, but - assuming they beat either Saint Mary's or Santa Clara in the championship - they would be 7-2 in Quad 1 games. They could also find themselves top 5 in the NET and top 10 in both KenPom and WAB.

That's a resume that would be tough to deny as a No. 3 seed - and frankly could be good enough to put coach Few and the Zags on the No. 2 line if the planets align.

Teams like Texas Tech, Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue, and Virginia are all in the mix for the last few No. 3 seeds, so Gonzaga will need a little help from their opponents to secure what could be a cozy draw. But, as long as the Zags win out, a spot on the three line feels quite likely.

History as No. 3

Gonzaga has been a No. 3 seed three times total, in 2005, 2006, and again in 2023.

The Zags went 25-4 in 2004-05, ending the season on a 12-game winning streak, which included beating Saint Mary's, 80-67, in the WCC championship game. Led by sophomore Adam Morrison and senior Ronny Turiaf, Gonzaga beat No. 14 seed Winthrop, 74-64, in the first round before an agonizing 71-69 loss to No. 6 seed Texas Tech.

Morrison led Gonzaga to a tremendous 27-3 record as a junior in 2005-06, including a perfect 14-0 season in conference play. After defeating LMU in the WCC championship, the Zags were once again given a No. 3 seed - and this time they advanced to the Sweet 16 with wins over No. 14 Xavier and No. 6 Indiana. Next was one of the most memorable games in Zag basketball history, a crushing 73-71 loss to No. 2 UCLA, where Gonzaga blew a 17-point lead - resulting in Morrison's emotional display on the court.

17 years later, Gonzaga was back on the No. 3 line after a 26-5 season, led by Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, and Anton Watson. Gonzaga fought past No. 14 seed Grand Canyon and narrowly escaped No. 6 TCU, 84-81, to return to the Sweet 16. They then managed to take down No. 2 UCLA in dramatic fashion on a Strawther game-winner, before falling 82-54 to UConn in the Elite Eight.

Gonzaga must focus on what it can control, which at this time is ensuring they close out the season with another WCC championship and a big-time win over one of Saint Mary's or Santa Clara on Tuesday night. First, they'll have to get to the championship game, which requires a win against one of Oregon State, San Francisco, Washington State, or Portland in the WCC semifinals.

That game will be Monday, March 9, at 6:00 PM PT and will be broadcast on ESPN+.

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