Gonzaga Nation

Gonzaga considered a 'preseason title contender flop'

Despite a talented and experienced roster, the Bulldogs lack some high-quality wins.
Cole Forsman|
Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike.
Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike. | Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

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Safe to say not many people expected the Gonzaga men's basketball team to have eight losses on its record and head into the West Coast Conference Tournament as the No. 2 seed when the preseason polls and rankings first dropped back in the fall.

Predictive analytics websites were especially high on the Bulldogs' national championship aspirations after Mark Few and company brought back all but one rotational player from last season's Sweet 16 squad. In fact, EvanMiya.com — operated by data scientist Evan Miyakawa — had the Zags atop its first rankings of the 2024-25 season while boasting the fourth-most talented roster in the country.

But after coming out of the gate firing on all cylinders during the first two weeks of November, the Bulldogs (23-8, 14-4 WCC) fell victim to close losses down the stretch of nonconference play. And being picked to win the WCC regular season title in the coaches' preseason poll, the Zags finished second in the league standings behind Saint Mary's, which bested Gonzaga in both February matchups, for a second season in a row. Once thought to be a contender for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it appears more likely the Zags will have to face a No. 1 seed in the second round as an 8- or 9-seed, depending on how the WCC Tournament plays out.

Thirteen weeks since debuting as the top-ranked team on Miyakawa's website, the Zags are among a cluster of notable teams considered by EvanMiya to be "preseason title contender flops" based on their roster talent and resume quality. Gonzaga, with the No. 4-ranked roster, ranks No. 43 in EvanMiya's Resume Quality metric, which measures the number of wins a team has above what would be expected from a team on the at-large cutline against the same schedule. Similar to the NET's Wins Above Bubble metric, which Gonzaga sits at No. 42 in the country in with a 3-6 record in quadrant 1 games, 5-2 in quad 2 and 15-0 combined between quad 3 and quad 4 contests.

It also doesn't help the Bulldogs' postseason case that Baylor and UConn, two teams they faced in nonleague play, are also considered "preseason title contender flops." The Bears (18-12, 10-9 Big 12) sit at No. 31 in the NET heading into their final regular season game against Houston. Gonzaga beat Baylor in the season opener in what was a quad 1 contest for both teams, though the Bears will have to climb back into the top 30 for that to be the case again.

The Huskies (21-9, 13-6 Big East) aren't far behind the NET at No. 34. Dan Hurley and company didn't exactly run through the regular season much like last season's title squad raced through the NCAA Tournament, as UConn will finish no better tied for third place in the Big East standings.

While the Zags' postseason resume has room for improvement, there's no disregarding their efficiency numbers and where they rank among the other top teams in the country. Gonzaga is No. 5 in the country in offensive efficiency and No. 34 in defensive efficiency according to EvanMiya; that combination would indicate the Bulldogs have "Final Four potential" by EvanMiya's own account.

Based on how the WCC Tournament plays out, the NCAA Tournament selection committee will have quite the time dissecting Gonzaga's postseason resume.

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Cole Forsman
COLE FORSMAN

Cole Forsman is a reporter for Gonzaga Bulldogs On SI. Cole holds a degree in Journalism and Sports Management from Gonzaga University.

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