Gonzaga has one of the most unique resumes in NCAA Tournament NET rankings era
Precedence isn't a factor the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee considers while seeding teams, though the Gonzaga Bulldogs are on track to make a bit of history when they hear their name called Sunday.
The Zags (25-7, 14-2 WCC) compiled one of the most unique at-large resumes regarding the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which was introduced in the 2018 offseason as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. Since the NCAA modified the NET before the 2020-21 season, there hasn't been a program that has put together a combination of quality wins and advanced metric ratings quite like the 2023-24 Bulldogs.
When looking at the resume, Gonzaga is ranked 17th in the NET with a 3-6 record in Quad 1 games, 4-1 in Quad 2 and a perfect 17-0 mark in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games combined. Per KenPom, the Zags rank ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It's also worth noting the Bulldogs didn't clinch an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament after their 69-60 loss to Saint Mary's in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game.
From 2021 through the end of last season, 16 teams ranked in both the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Fifteen of those earned either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament — 2021 Houston was the lone exception as a 5-seed despite being ranked third in the NET on Selection Sunday. Only two teams have finished with a top-10 offense and top-50 defense and were ranked outside the top 10 of the NET prior to the NCAA Tournament — 2023 Marquette and 2022 Duke, both of which were 12th in the NET and 2-seeds in the Big Dance.
The key difference between those Blue Devils and Golden Eagles teams compared to this season's Zags team is the quality of wins. Duke had 12 wins in the first two quadrants; Marquette had 14 before Selection Sunday. Each had one Quad 3 loss on its resume, which would help explain why both were just on the outside of the NET's top 10.
But it's not just those two teams — all 16 teams that finished the season with a top-10 offense and top-50 defense averaged 14.1 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins before the NCAA Tournament. That means the average quality wins of programs that have had somewhat similar efficiency numbers is double the amount the Zags have heading into Selection Sunday.
Gonzaga's NET ranking would indicate it can still earn at least a 6-seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament based on history. The last three teams ranked 17th heading into Selection Sunday were at worst a 6-seed, though all of them had at least eight wins in the first two quadrants. Quality of wins hasn't always correlated with where a team ranks in the NET — 2021 Colgate was No. 9 in the NET despite not having a single Quad 1 win — but it's worth noting in Gonzaga's case based on its efficiency ranks (Colgate wasn't even in the top-50 in offensive or defensive efficiency that season).
In a way, the Bulldogs are an anomaly in the NET era. Big picture though, their resume is a perfect example of why the Selection Committee considers a multitude of factors outside of the NET, which is still a relatively young sorting tool. There are likely more programs like Gonzaga with unique resumes that go against precedent.
It will be interesting to see how the Selection Committee views the Zags on Selection Sunday.
