West Coast Conference men's basketball preview: Will Gonzaga win 12th straight title?
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For the last few seasons, the West Coast Conference had a steady upward trajectory in terms of overall talent spread throughout the league's nine members. NBA-caliber players transferred to programs outside of just Gonzaga. Three teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament just two years ago, the most in over a decade, as the gap between the Bulldogs and the contenders began to shrink with the emergence of Saint Mary's, San Francisco and Santa Clara.
BYU was in that conversation as well until it left for the Big 12 in the offseason, and while the Cougars (12-1) sit near the top of KenPom and NET Rankings, their old conference struggled in nonconference play. Any hype the WCC generated in the offseason was washed away once Saint Mary's, which was picked to win the league, stumbled in losses to Weber State and Missouri State. Gonzaga came up short in big games to Purdue, Washington, UConn and San Diego State, leaving Mark Few's program without a Quad 1 win entering league play. As for the rest of the league, they've picked off wins over some lowly high-major programs but nothing that sticks out as a signature win.
As a result, there's a good chance the WCC only sends one team to the 2024 NCAA Tournament, which hasn't happened since 2018. According to KenPom, the league ranks 11th in the country overall and fourth among mid-major conferences. The eventual demise of the Pac-12 had some people wishfully thinking the WCC could claim the throne as the best basketball conference in the West — an idea that for now hasn't aged well.
Still, the league remains competitive at the top. KenPom projects that only one game will separate the first and third place team in the standings when it's all said and done. That's quite the progression from when it was Gonzaga at the top and the rest were fighting for second place.
Here's a look at how each team shapes up heading into WCC play:
GONZAGA BULLDOGS
Record: 9-4 KenPom: 28th NET: 57th Projected WCC record (KenPom): 13-3
The Bulldogs enter WCC action in unfamiliar territory sitting at 9-4, the most losses suffered before league play since the 2010-11 season. Granted three of the defeats came at the hands of the No. 1 team in the country, the reigning national champions and the team that finished as the national runner-up. But those are games that Mark Few's program has taken advantage of in the past to boost its tournament resume before January. Now, there's a real sense of urgency for the Zags to win the WCC outright in order to secure a spot in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
To do that, they'll have to start shooting the ball better from deep. Gonzaga has shot 31.5% on 3-point attempts this season, which ranks 241st in the country and is on pace to be the worst 3-point percentage in program history under Few. Whether it's a lack of confidence across the board or a schematic approach, shots from the perimeter are going to have to start falling.
As the season progresses, depth will become a pivotal factor for the Bulldogs. A rotation that was already thin to start the season has shrunk to essentially seven players, with an eighth coming in for a few minutes here and there. Few likes to run shorter rotations in the postseason, but that's only possible if his main guys have fresh legs. Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman have already logged multiple 40-minute games each in nonconference play, a strategy that isn't sustainable over the next 17 games.
Luka Krajnovic, once healed from his broken hand injury, and Jun Seok Yeo will have to step up and play meaningful minutes to give Gonzaga's backcourt a rest every so often. If both newcomers can work their way up and give the team a solid 10-12 minutes every game, then the Bulldogs will be in good shape. If not, those Saturday night games on the road coming off a game Thursday will be a real battle for the starters to power through.
This season's squad isn't like the dominant teams Few has had in years past, but the WCC is still Gonzaga's to lose. The frontcourt is the deepest in the league and has the ability to control the flow of any game. Depth and 3-point shooting will dictate a lot, especially in big games against Saint Mary's and San Francisco.
SAINT MARY'S GAELS
Record: 9-6 KenPom: 44th NET: 53rd Projected WCC record (KenPom): 12-4
The Gaels have not lived up to the lofty expectations set forth by the WCC coaches in the preseason poll. Since being picked to finish first in the league standings, Saint Mary's hasn't played with the continuity and flow that people expected from a program that brought back all but two players from an NCAA Tournament team a season ago. Questionable losses to Weber State, Boise State and especially Missouri State at home have jeopardized a third-straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
If an at-large bid is truly out the window for the Gaels, then they'll have to win the WCC outright to get into the Big Dance. No doubt they have the defense to do it — Saint Mary's is 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, allowing just 58.5 points per game to its opponent, the third-fewest in the country. Defense has never been the problem for Randy Bennett's program, but offensively there hasn't been the same connectivity.
Turnovers have been a crutch. The Gaels turn the ball over on 18.9% of their possessions per KenPom, which is on pace to be the program's highest rate since 2008. Three-point shooting also hasn't been a strong suit — 29.2% from behind the arc for the Gaels, the worst mark among WCC teams.
Losing Logan Johnson and Kyle Bowen has proven to be a bigger hit than expected, but Aidan Mahaney hasn't taken the sophomore leap that many anticipated he would after being tabbed a Wooden Award candidate in the preseason. Through 15 games, the 6-foot-3 guard is shooting 35.9% from the field — down from his 42.8% clip last season — and is knocking down 29.7% of his 3-point attempts on volume.
It doesn't all fall on one man, because that's never been how the Gaels work. Bennett will likely get his group together and in sync as conference play moves along. If not, the door could open for San Francisco or Santa Clara to claim one of the top two spots in the league.
Regardless, Saint Mary's should give Gonzaga a fight in both matchups on Feb. 3 and March 2.
SAN FRANCISCO DONS
Record: 11-4 KenPom: 46th NET: 39th. Projected WCC record (KenPom): 12-4
When Chris Gerlufsen brought in 6-foot-8 forward Jonathan Mogbo from Missouri State over the offseason, it's likely that not even the second-year head coach could anticipate how much of an impact the sophomore would have on both ends of the floor.
Known as a defensive specialist, Mogbo has brought a different dynamic to the Dons' run-and-gun offense as a force to be reckoned with down low. Mogbo is the only player in the WCC who averages a double-double with 13.7 points and 10.1 rebounds, while also leading the league in both offensive and defensive win shares. He's been ultra-efficient as well, shooting a league-best 66.7% from the floor.
Mogbo's ability to dominate around the rim complements the Dons' 3-point heavy offense, which is guided by junior guard Marcus Williams. The 6-foot-2 Texan has taken a major step forward after sitting behind Tyrell Roberts and Khalil Shabazz last season, as he leads the team with 26 made 3-pointers and 14.3 points per game.
San Francisco's splurge in the transfer portal has paid dividends to start the 2023-24 season. Along with Mogbo, Dayton transfer Mike Sharavjamts brought in a boost offensively as a hybrid guard/forward combo at 6-foot-8 who can also shoot the rock from distance. He hasn't quite had a true breakout game as a Don yet, but bet on that happening sooner rather than later.
For the Dons, securing one of the top three (or even two) spots in the conference standings will come down to their ability to hold on in close games. They've already lost close games to Boise State (63-58), Grand Canyon (76-72) and Utah State (54-53), three victories that would have been resume boosters. Instead, San Francisco enters WCC play with its best nonconference win being over Minnesota (ranked 82nd in KenPom).
Still the defense is stout, ranked 14th in the country in efficiency per KenPom. The Dons should be taken seriously over the next two months behind a cast of new faces led by arguably the league's top newcomer in Mogbo.
SANTA CLARA BRONCOS
Record: 9-6 KenPom: 123rd NET: 121st Projected WCC record (KenPom): 9-7
No team in the WCC started the 2023-24 season as hot as the Broncos, who rattled off six straight wins to open the new campaign. A lot of those wins came against inferior competition, though, and the losses started piling up against better teams in December. Having lost five of their last seven nonconference outings heading into league play, Herb Sendek's crew will need to right the ship to stay competitive with their aforementioned rivals in the league standings.
The pieces are there for Sendek, known as one of the best developers of talent in the WCC after producing back-to-back NBA first round talents in Jalen Williams (2022) and Brandin Podziemski (2023). Arizona transfer Adama Bal has made his case to be the next Bronco headed for the NBA, as the 6-foot-6 guard has snuck into some mock drafts as a potential first round pick in next summer's draft. Bal leads Santa Clara in points (14.8), assists (3.1) and steals (1.0).
Bal forms a dynamic backcourt tandem with 6-foot-6 fifth year senior Carlos Marshall Jr., who's been an efficient scorer this season averaging 14.4 points while shooting 50.3% from the field and 47.8% from distance. He's also one of the best rebounding guards in the league with 5.6 boards per game, the ninth-most in the WCC. Marshall Jr. and Bal are a lot of size to deal with on the perimeter as guards who fight for rebounds defensively and can spread the floor offensively as 3-point threats.
Turnovers have been a problem for Santa Clara, as the team posts the second-worst turnover margin in the league. If the Broncos can take better care of the ball, they have the playmakers on offense to compete for one of the top three spots in the WCC standings.
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Record: 7-7 KenPom: 145th NET: 186th Projected WCC record (KenPom): 8-8
Gonzaga fans probably don't like hearing that Dominick Harris is the Lions' leading scorer heading into league play, as the 6-foot-3 redshirt junior is putting up 14.5 points per game while shooting 44.3% on his 3-point attempts. The former Bulldog headlines a group of newcomers to Loyola Marymount who have helped rebuild Stan Johnson's program over the last few months.
So far though LMU's backcourt has been the star of the show. North Carolina Central transfer Justin Wright is a slashing guard who can also knock down the mid-range jumper and averages 11.4 points. Will Johnston from UT Rio Grande Valley does a little bit of everything at the lead guard spot, while Justice Hill brings juice off the bench with 10.0 points and a team-high 4.2 assists per game.
That backcourt room has played like one of the best in the WCC thus far, up there with Santa Clara's group. Down low, Keli Leaupepe is still bringing the toughness and energy on the glass in his fifth year of college basketball. The Lions have outrebounded their opponents in 10 of their first 14 games.
Defensively, though, LMU has struggled to create opportunities for its offense. The Lions rank 350th in the country in steal percentage according to KenPom, as the team forces 10.6 turnovers per game. That won't cut it against the league's top teams.
Still, the Lions are experienced, deep and tough as nails like they have been for years now. A repeat of last season's 19-12 mark isn't completely out of the cards if they're able to tighten up defensively and be consistent on offense.
PEPPERDINE WAVES
Record: 7-8 KenPom: 220th NET: 243rd Projected WCC record (KenPom): 6-10
Lorenzo Romar has another roster riddled with pro-level prospects, though it remains to be seen if he can turn the new crop of talent into more than two wins in WCC play this season. Jevon Porter, one of Romar's prized prospects, hasn't been able to showcase much of his skillset due to injury, as the 6-foot-11 sophomore has missed 12 games.
The Waves haven't missed a beat behind the efforts of 6-foot-7 wing Michael Ajayi, a native of Kent, Washington and JUCO product from Pierce College. The junior has transitioned spectacularly to the Division-I level, as he leads the WCC in points (17.3), total field goals made (105) and defensive rebounds (106) while shooting 48.4% from the field and 55.6% on 3-point attempts (2.4 attempts per game). His ability to score from inside and mid-range makes him a tough guard for any defender, much like Maxwell Lewis was for the Waves.
Houston Mallette, another potential NBA prospect, is back in Malibu for his junior season after a slight decline as a sophomore. So far he's been more efficient and an improved scorer, averaging 16.7 points while shooting 45% from the field and 40.0% on 5.3 attempts per game from distance. The 6-foot-5 shooter has been a difficult guard as well for Gonzaga, as he's scored 20 or more points in three of four games he's played against the Bulldogs.
The Waves have a lot of scoring pop at the top of the roster, but the offense will have to rely heavily on the top three guys when all are healthy if Pepperdine is going to make some noise in WCC play. There wasn't much to analyze from the wins in nonconference play, with six of their seven victories coming against programs ranked 295th in the country or worse in KenPom. But if the computer analytics are correct, this season will be an improvement for Romar and his program.
SAN DIEGO TOREROS
Record: 10-5 KenPom: 223rd NET: 207th Projected WCC record (KenPom): 6-10
San Diego hit the reset button in the offseason by bringing in 10 newcomers, including nine freshmen, to mix with the remnants of last season's core. The Toreros scheduled accordingly to build chemistry and confidence among the fresh wave of talent, which will get its first taste of WCC basketball against Saint Mary's, Gonzaga and San Francisco to start league play. The conference has been controlled by programs that feature older talent historically, a hierarchy that doesn't favor head coach Steve Lavin in the short term but could pay off down the road if the talent sticks around.
The youth movement is headlined by 6-foot-8 wing Kevin Patton and 6-foot-6 Romanian import Dragos Lungu, two freshmen who bring size off the bench and can play various positions on the perimeter. Sierra Canyon product Jimmy Oladokun Jr. has flashed at times as a 6-foot-9 versatile scorer.
But the Toreros are still led by experience, with junior guard Wayne McKinney III averaging 14.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Bucknell transfer Deuce Turner chips in 13.9 points per game. As a whole, San Diego sits in the middle of the WCC pack in scoring at 72.9 points per game.
The biggest improvement thus far for Lavin's group has been on the defensive end of the floor, where San Diego ranked 344th in efficiency last season. Through nonconference play, the team ranks 150th in that metric. If the Toreros can replicate some of that success and hustle in WCC play, they might finish better than what their KenPom projection would indicate.
Still, 2023-24 feels too soon to place expectations on a team so young and inexperienced. The pieces are there for the future if Lavin can retain a majority of his core, which might be a tough task in the world of NIL in college athletics.
PORTLAND PILOTS
Record: 6-9 KenPom: 263rd NET: 278th Projected WCC record (KenPom): 5-11
The departures of Moses Wood, Michael Meadows and Kristian Sjolund have hindered the Pilots' effectiveness on offense thus far, though there's still time for Shantay Legans to pull his guys together and improve over the course of WCC play. All-WCC talent Tyler Robertson is back for his senior season to lead the team in scoring once again, as the 6-foot-6 guard puts up 16.3 points per game. But it'll take more than Robertson if the Pilots are to improve upon their 237th-ranked offense.
Freshman guard Tyler Harris has made an impact from the get-go with 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Standing at 6-foot-8, he has the skillset of a guard while playing at the power forward spot. Legans has valued versatility throughout his coaching tenure, and like Robertson, Harris has the build of the next interchangeable wing who doesn't fit into a box.
The offense hasn't lived up to the expectations, while defensively the Pilots could use some work. They rank 270th in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom after checking in at 276th last season. Much of the offseason was spent bringing in size to improve that department, though it hasn't quite worked out to this point.
If Legans can turn things around and the team stays healthy, Portland can still fight for a .500 record. Otherwise, it'll be another long season for the Pilots.
PACIFIC TIGERS
Record: 6-9 KenPom: 343rd NET: 356th Projected WCC record (KenPom): 2-14
After a respectable 7-9 finish in the WCC last season, KenPom forecasts a major regression from the Tigers in year three of the Leonard Perry era. Pacific lost two double-digit scorers in Keylan Boone and Jordan Ivy-Curry, while it landed 6-foot-11 Boise State transfer Burke Smith. But outside of those changes, the core remains largely the same.
With Nick Blake out due to injury, Moe Odum has led the charge offensively as a pass-first lead guard. Judson Martindale puts up 10.5 points per game, up from 6.5 points in his first season as a Tiger. Outside of those two, the team has struggled to put the ball in the basket, averaging a league-worst 64.9 points.
Things aren't much better defensively. Pacific allows the second-most points per game in the league (73.8) and has by far the worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference at 110.4 (for reference, Gonzaga is No. 1 at 96.1 defensive efficiency rating). The Tigers' current defensive rating is on pace to be the program's worst since KenPom starting tracking that metric in 1997, and they haven't even faced the WCC's best offenses yet.
The offense isn't clicking like it should (348th in efficiency), though that's to be expected after losing the top three scorers from last season. It's another rebuilding year for Perry and the staff, as they'll look to at least be competitive each night in WCC play.
