Analyzing EvanMiya's 2026-27 Projections for Illinois Basketball

Comparing the predictive analytics to the general consensus of experts – the preseason version of the eye test – is always an intriguing proposition. The vast majority of pundits slot Illinois in college basketball's top five heading into 2026-27 – and many of them have the Illini in the top three.

But what do the objective (if not truly predictive) numbers foresee for Illinois? One of the sport's key preseason metrics – EvanMiya – was unveiled on Wednesday. Evan Miyakawa, the creator of the analytical tool, revealed his top 30 teams and top 30 players (the rest of the rankings will be updated on his site this Friday).

Where does EvanMiya rank Illinois in the 2026-27 preseason?

The player list was loaded with individual Illini – but where do they stand as a team? EvanMiya rated Illinois as the No. 3 team in the country entering next season. Florida (No. 1) and Duke (No. 2) are neck and neck at the top with the Illini trailing just below.

Key numbers to know from Illinois’ EvanMiya rating

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood watches as his team plays March 21, 2026 during the first half of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against VCU at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The offense ranks No. 1

Illinois’ offense being elite again next year is the expectation. Despite the absence of Keaton Wagler, the engine of the 2025-26 Illini offense and now a Los Angeles Clipper, Illinois is expected to pick up right where it left off – and EvanMiya seconds that notion, rating Brad Underwood’s offense as the best in the country heading into the season.

The defense ranks No. 8

This isn’t coming out of left field, but it is a bit unexpected. The defense ranked No. 16 in EvanMiya last season, and the Illini have lost Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous – two of their premier defenders. And Wagler, if not a force, wasn’t a liability on that end.

Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks wasn’t recruited to Champaign for his lockdown defense, and then there’s the expected reliance on freshmen – who can always be volatile on that end.

On the flip side, the Illini are gigantic. Their size should allow them to flourish on that end if they put it all together. And in the NCAA Tournament, we saw exactly how that can manifest itself.

If Underwood can get his squad to realize its potential on that end before the New Year, then it should live up to this No. 8 defensive rating and then some.

Roster talent ranks No. 2

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) and Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) react after a play against the VCU Rams during the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois is spectacularly talented – but so are a few other squads in the country. Florida, if Denzel Aberdeen is eventually cleared, has four key contributors from a national championship team – and they’re all two years older. The Gators are understandably sitting ahead of the Illini in roster talent rank.

Duke also has an argument. The Blue Devils have the best backcourt, from top to bottom, that college basketball has seen in years. And Patrick Ngongba is one of the top bigs in the nation, while forward Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje is the Blue Devils’ latest walks-on-water NBA prospect (he won’t be eligible until the 2028 draft but is viewed as the No. 1 prospect by a wide margin).

Yet the Illini rate above Duke here. They’re that talented. Underwood’s penchant for finding high-level players – be it via the portal, overseas or the high school ranks – remains one of his most impressive traits.

Where is the rest of the Big Ten in EvanMiya?

The next Big Ten squad: Michigan State at No. 8. Then Michigan at No. 15. UCLA found itself at No. 21 and Nebraska snuck in at No. 25. No USC, Purdue or Indiana was a mild surprise – and it doesn’t exactly bode well for the strength of the league entering 2026-27. Also, seeing the Wolverines down at No. 15 wasn’t on anyone's bingo card.

The main takeaway: The Big Ten is Illinois’ to lose this season. The Illini have the pieces, the fit and the coaching staff to be flat-out dominant on both ends. This is their best opportunity to win an outright Big Ten title since they last completed that feat back in 2005.

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