One Reason Illinois Basketball Shouldn't Be the 2026-27 National Title Favorite

Brad Underwood has quickly turned Illinois into a perennial national title contender – or something very close to it. But for the past few seasons, the Illini were viewed more as a dark horse candidate capable of going on a run, rather than one of college basketball's legitimate favorites.

In 2026-27, though, on the heels of a Final Four appearance and returning five of the eight rotation players from that unit, Illinois is firmly in that championship discussion. But should the Illini be the favorite? We already offered three reasons why the answer is yes – but here’s one hurdle that may hold them back:

One issue keeping Illinois off the preseason college hoops mountaintop

Feb 14, 2026; Providence, Rhode Island, USA; Providence College Friars guard Stefan Vaaks (7) dribbles during the second half of the game against the St. John’s University Red Storm at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Natalie Reid-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The frontcourt? One of the top two in the country (admittedly, it’s tough to slot it above Florida’s). The wings? Andrej Stojakovic is one of the best small forwards in the nation, and Jake Davis is perhaps the country’s most experienced reserve. The coaching staff? Just proved itself capable of running the nation’s most potent offense and, at times, an unbelievably stingy defense.

But what about the backcourt? Talent isn't lacking (there’s never a shortage of that in Champaign). Quentin Coleman was a five-star recruit, and Stefan Vaaks was the No. 16 overall transfer in the portal (per 247Sports). Freshman Ethan Brown is, by all accounts, ready to be a steady force off the bench.

So at first glance, the guard positions don’t seem to be anything even resembling a weakness – and they likely won’t be. But the lack of certainty is worrying to an extent.

Vaaks has never played on an NCAA Tournament team. Providence went just 15-18 in his freshman season. Were his stats – 15.8 points and 3.2 assists – empty numbers? Can he function in an offense surrounded by fellow high-level hoopers?

He won’t have the same green light he had with Providence a year ago. Will a lower volume affect his rhythm and, subsequently, his efficiency? The glass-half-empty outlook has Vaaks struggling to strike the balance between asserting himself and providing value while avoiding forcing difficult shots and wasted possessions.

And that’s offense – which is Vaaks' strength. It doesn’t take much of an imagination to envision struggles in other facets of the game. Vaaks, at 6-foot-7, averaged just 2.5 rebounds in 31.5 minutes per game last season. He posted a negative defensive box plus/minus and also registered a negative defensive rating per EvanMiya.

Illinois is going to be able to score with or without Vaaks (even if he makes it much easier), but defense will determine the ceiling for Underwood’s club in 2026-27.

At worst, Vaaks needs to take nothing off the table as a defender. As for his rebounding, the Illini’s oft-discussed size is good for nothing if their personnel doesn’t use that trait to their advantage.

And keep in mind, Vaaks is the only proven product in that backcourt. (Again, this is the pessimistic viewpoint, so bear with us.) Now we move to the other key pieces: Coleman and Brown, both of whom are freshmen.

Underwood was asked time and again some version of this question throughout the 2025-26 season: When did you know Keaton Wagler was that good? He explained that when Wagler arrived in the summer, he knew he had a player who was far better than advertised.

But Underwood didn’t really know until he saw Wagler in action against opponents wearing different uniforms. (He pointed to the Florida scrimmage as his “first inclination” that Wagler was truly special.)

The rest is history for Wagler. But his story was magical because he was an anomaly. And anomalies, by definition, are the exception to the rule. So can Illinois bank on its freshmen being a couple more exceptions? No. But that’s why Vaaks is there to take pressure off Coleman, and why point-forward David Mirkovic can also offer playmaking abilities.

July 19, 2025; North Augusta, South Carolina, USA; Brad Beal Elite Quentin Coleman (1) gestures to a teammate as Team Durant Evans Barning Jr. (7) defends during the Brad Beal Elite and Team Durant game at the Nike EYBL Peach Jam at Riverview Park Activity Center. Brad Beal Elite won 91-59. Mandatory Credit: Katie Goodale - Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY NETWORK | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Still, the Illini need Coleman to live up to expectations for them to be a national title contender – let alone the favorite. And Brown, who is essentially the only backup guard option, must at least be serviceable. (Illinois could technically get away without a playable backcourt reserve but it wouldn’t be desirable.)

Moral of the story: Illinois’ backcourt has elite upside. But the floor is lower than some might expect. And if the floor becomes the reality, the Illini will fall out of the race to cut down the nets come early April. That in itself keeps Illinois from earning college hoops’ preseason crown.

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