How Far Can Illinois Go? Projecting the NCAA Tournament South Region

It's time to dance. With the reveal of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket on Sunday evening, the madness has finally arrived. Illinois, which is a No. 3 seed in the South Region, has a first-round matchup with No. 14 seed Penn in Greenville, South Carolina, on Thursday (8:25 p.m. CT).

Here is our round-by-round projection for the South Region:

Tip is set for 8:25 p.m. CT! https://t.co/PfJgklWKFS
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 16, 2026

Round of 64 South Region predictions

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View

The pick: Florida.

No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa

The pick: Iowa. Bennett Stirtz and exceptional team defense should be enough in Round 1.

No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese State

The pick: Vanderbilt. McNeese State is extremely athletic and downright dangerous defensively, but Vanderbilt is a competitive SEC team that's explosive on offense and solid enough on the other end.

No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy

Mar 8, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg walks off the court after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The pick: Nebraska. The Cornhuskers will ride their well-balanced offensive attack and elite defense to their first-ever NCAA Tournament win.

No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU

The pick: VCU. The Rams have won 16 of 17 and face a vulnerable, Caleb Wilson-less North Carolina club.

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn

The pick: Illinois. The Illini are simply too big, athletic and talented.

No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M

The pick: Texas A&M. Saint Mary’s stellar defense should allow it to stick around, but it’s not battle-tested enough to survive against a seasoned Aggies squad.

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho

The pick: Houston

Round of 32 South Region predictions

Mar 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum gestures to his team against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Florida vs. Iowa

The pick: Florida. The Gators are too big and physical for the undersized Hawkeyes to overcome.

Nebraska vs. Vanderbilt

The pick: Vanderbilt. Nebraska gets one win before falling to a deeper, more talented and much hotter Vanderbilt unit.

Illinois vs. VCU

The pick: Illinois. The size and talent disparity will be too much for VCU to overcome.

Houston vs. Texas A&M

The pick: Houston. The Cougars have a stud in guard Kingston Flemings, not to mention the typical Kelvin Sampson-led defense.

Sweet 16 South Region predictions

Mar 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Florida vs. Vanderbilt

The pick: Florida. The Commodores just cruised past the Gators to snap Florida’s huge winning streak. This time around, though, expect a much sharper game plan from a fired-up Florida club.

Illinois vs. Houston

The pick: Houston. Throughout the 2025-26 campaign, Illinois’ kryptonite has slowly revealed itself: elite guards and top-notch one-on-one defenders. Unfortunately, the Cougars have both.

Given their personnel and scheme, the Illini simply can't rely on their mismatch-hunting offense to carry them in this one. Similar to Michigan, this Houston squad has zero defenders worth hunting.

On the flip side, Kingston Flemings, who is averaging 16.4 points and 5.3 assists per game, should carve up this Illinois team, which has constantly found itself with no answers for gifted guards. To make the degree of difficulty that much higher for the Illini, this game would take place in Houston.

Elite Eight South Region Prediction

Apr 7, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson and Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden greet each other before the national championship game of the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Florida vs. Houston

The pick: Florida. A rematch of the 2025 national championship game, Florida-Houston is the likely matchup in the South Regional final, and it should be a repeat result of last season.

Similar squads in terms of size and athleticism, the Gators and Cougars are also well-matched in terms of discipline and scheme. But Florida’s wider arsenal of weapons and additional experience across its roster should be enough to send it back to the Final Four for a second straight year.