EvanMiya Tabs Illinois' Keaton Wagler as Top-5 Freshman, David Mirkovic Close Behind

Heading into every college basketball season, there’s a buzz of excitement surrounding the freshman class. The 2025-26 campaign was no different, and many even believed this year’s freshman class had the most overall firepower at the top of any in quite some time.

Two months in, it’s hard to argue with that take. AJ Dybantsa is averaging an absurd 23.1 points (on 58.6 percent shooting from the field), 7.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists for BYU. How about 23.0 points (56.4 percent from the floor), 9.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.9 steals and 0.8 blocks for Duke’s Cameron Boozer?

And Kansas’ Darryn Peterson just so happens to be putting up 20.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists – albeit in just five games. Then you’ve got North Carolina Caleb Wilson cranking out 19.3 points (55.7 percent shooting), 10.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks.

The list goes on. Go take a look at any 2025 recruiting page, and practically every highly rated freshman has answered the bell – and then some. Then, miles and miles down that same list, you can find another name: Keaton Wagler.

Rated as the No. 261 recruit per 247Sports’ composite rankings, Wagler has shattered expectations and may be in the midst of putting together the most unexpected freshman campaign college basketball has seen in years.

His recent emergence has caught the eye of the entire country, and in turn, Wagler has been reeling in the praise from every college basketball aficionado with a laptop and X account. But what do the numbers say? What is the “opinion” – if one can call it that – of the analytical data?

Advanced metric rates Illinois' Keaton Wagler as top-five freshman

Well, per Evan Miyakawa’s well-respected Bayesian Performance Rating, the seemingly infinite commendation currently being hurled Wagler’s way still may not be enough. The metric tabs Wagler as the No. 5 freshman in the country, trailing only North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson (No. 4), Houston’s Kingston Flemings (No. 3), BYU’s Dybantsa (No. 2) and Duke’s Boozer (No. 1).

Illinois' Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic have skyrocketed up EvanMiya's ratings

And Wagler’s 126-spot leap from the preseason – he was rated No. 131 ahead of 2025-26 – is far and away the largest of any player in the top 25. Sticking solely to the top 15, the player with the second-highest jump just so happens to be a fellow Illini: forward David Mirkovic.

Here are the nation's top freshmen, according to Bayesian Performance Rating at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax 👇 pic.twitter.com/QICKwS8dQR
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 6, 2026

The 6-foot-9 freshman Mirkovic, who starred in Illinois’ most recent win, has climbed 41 spots from a preseason ranking of No. 54 and now is rated as the No. 13 freshman in the nation.

Although Wagler’s and Mirkovic’s respective rankings in EvanMiya’s metric don’t come as a complete shock at this point, they do remind us of two things: 1) Brad Underwood’s eye for talent is perhaps the best of any college coach in the country, and 2) Illinois is an excellent developmental program.

Of course, there’s a bit of good fortune involved in Wagler and Mirkovic being as impressive as they have been thus far. But their respective success is both a testament to Illinois’ ability to find hidden gems and the program’s knack for ensuring players get the best out of their abilities – not to mention both Wagler’s and Mirkovic’s own work ethics.

With that in mind, we must not overlook Illinois’ 2026 recruiting class, which may not be oozing with five-star recruits but should churn out a trio of productive players – and perhaps another star.