Is Illinois the 2026-27 Big Ten Basketball Favorite After Dusty May's Departure?

On Monday, it was reported that Michigan’s Dusty May is finalizing a deal to become the Dallas Mavericks' next head coach. In a move sending tsunami-sized waves throughout the college basketball world, May to the Mavericks drastically changes the landscape heading into next season – especially in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines bumped assistant Mike Boynton Jr. to the interim position, in a move that allowed the program to retain its loaded roster (the transfer window will not open for Michigan players in this scenario).

Sources: Michigan is working toward hiring Mike Boynton Jr. as interim coach, per me and @jeffborzello and @AdamSchefter. pic.twitter.com/vZquplDDgB
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) June 22, 2026

Although Michigan will keep its star-studded unit intact and hold on to Boyton, who was credited with leading the defensive charge for a Wolverines unit that finished last season No. 1 in KenPom defensive rating, there should be no short-changing the impact of May’s exit.

Why Dusty May's exit is so important in the Big Ten race

The quintessential player’s coach, May wasn’t just a next-level recruiter, culture leader and program builder, he was a creative offensive mastermind. And, not for nothing, his players seemed to cherish the opportunity to play for him.

Michigan's athletic brass made a wise move in elevating Boynton to interim status to ensure there won't be any immediate roster turnover – which would have spelled disaster at this stage of the offseason. But although the Wolverines may have safely navigated those treacherous waters, they’re already in the thick of a separate storm without May at the helm.

Why Illinois is now the clear Big Ten favorite

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts after a play against the UConn Huskies during the first half of a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Throughout the 2026 offseason, the Big Ten has appeared to be a three-horse race at the top between Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. But within that premier tier, both the Illini and the Wolverines appeared to be a step ahead of the Spartans.

So, after the exit of May, does Michigan still belong in that conversation – or does Illinois have sole claim to the preseason throne? (Let's remember, of course, that the preseason throne doesn’t hold any value aside from an entertaining measuring stick.)

Boynton’s resume at Oklahoma State, where he was the head coach for seven seasons, was so-so at best. His tenure with the Cowboys resulted in just one NCAA Tournament berth. Coincidentally, he took over the season after Brad Underwood led Oklahoma State to an NCAA Tournament appearance, after which Underwood accepted the job at Illinois.

With the roster that May – and the entire Wolverines staff, including Boynton – built, there’s no questioning the talent Boynton will have at his fingertips. Based on his body of work this past season, defense will likely be a strength for UM yet again.

And with Elliot Cadeau still running the show, Michigan's offense should still be quite good. But it’s fairly simple: May came to Ann Arbor, earned a five seed and went to the Sweet 16 in Year 1 before running the table in the Big Ten and pushing his squad to a national title in Year 2. May did that. Head coaches are responsible for the highest of the highs and the lowest of the lows. (And for May, it was all of the former during his time at Michigan.)

Here in late June 2026, more than two months after his national title, May is off to Dallas, having left Michigan in, at the very least, a state of mild turmoil. Boynton should be able to ensure the Wolverines still finish in the top six of the league, but Michigan’s floor dropped the instant May bolted.

In Champaign, Underwood and the Illini know exactly what they have. There won’t be a different voice leading every practice or team meeting. Expect no dramatic, unexpected philosophical or schematic changes. It will be Underwood and his way – as it has been for over nine years now.

Does Michigan still have the ability to snatch the Big Ten crown? Potentially – and especially if they are in striking distance at the end of the season. But with more questions than answers at this point, it's no longer the expectation. And at least for now, it’s tough to even put the Wolverines in that discussion.

Put plainly: Illinois, with its talent-laden and experienced roster – not to mention the leadership of a coach coming off his first career Final Four appearance – is now the clear team to beat in the league entering 2026-27.

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