Illinois Basketball Climbs in KenPom After Win Over Nebraska

In the midst of Illinois’ 11-game win streak, Brad Underwood’s unit has hovered in the 5-10 range of all the key metrics – inching up and down throughout the past seven weeks and change. But after the Illini’s too-close-for-comfort victory against Washington on Thursday night, they slipped down in the top analytical model – including KenPom.

Defensively, ever since the Nebraska loss in mid-December, Illinois had been a different team – until the Purdue game. Without Keaton Wagler living in flow state for all 39 of his minutes (he scored 46 points in that game), the Illini would have been run out of Mackey Arena.

Illinois Freshman Keaton Wagner with a MONSTER performance vs No. 4 Purdue:

46 PTS | 13-17 FG | 9-11 3PT pic.twitter.com/SyhyGTXvhH
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) January 24, 2026

Purdue shot a sterling 56.9 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from deep. The Boilermakers – led by reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith – got everything they wanted on that end: open looks from deep, easy layups or alley-oop dunks at the rim and bunnies in the paint. Yes, Purdue does have the second-best offense in the country (behind only Illinois’), but that wasn’t an excuse for the Illini’s startlingly porous defense.

Then, against Washington, it wasn’t much better. The Huskies struggled immensely in the first half (only 26 points), but they tended to get great looks. The second half saw them go for 40 points – an unacceptable digit for the country’s No. 63-rated offense (according to KenPom). Washington finished the game 20-for-35 from two-point range, shredding Illinois’ previously lauded inside-the-arc defense.

Illinois KenPom update after victory at Nebraska

Feb 1, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) shoots against Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Sam Hoiberg (1) during the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The result? The Illini defense slipped to No. 28 in the country. Twenty minutes into Sunday’s matchup at Nebraska, that defense remained all but nonexistent. The Cornhuskers connected on 11 triples (out of 20) in the first half, and carried a 39-33 lead into the break.

Defensive breakdowns on simple off-ball screens left Nebraska marksmen wide open from long range – and, to the Cornhuskers’ credit, they converted. The second half was an entirely different story, though.

Illinois was exceptional on that side of the floor. As a team, the Illini sat in help defense while Zvonimir Ivisic cleaned up anything around the basket and Andrej Stojakovic ran Nebraska’s Pryce Sandfort off the line (just four attempted shots in the second half). With that defensive performance (and more Wagler heroics), Illinois outscored the home squad 45-30 in the second frame to steal a 78-69 road victory.

Subsequently, the Illini defense jumped to No. 24 in KenPom. The leap would have been even higher had they not yielded 15 made triples to the Cornhuskers. Also, the metrics can only pour so much stock into one performance.

As if the defensive growth wasn’t enough, Illinois also pushed the offensive margin between itself and Purdue. Heading into Sunday, the Illini had an offensive rating of 130.3, and they now sit at 130.9 (Purdue’s offensive efficiency is 129.6). As a result of the encouraging two-way performance, Illinois jumped from No. 7 to No. 5 overall in KenPom.

Here’s what it all boils down: Illinois’ offense is exceptional. The Illini defense has that potential. We’ve seen it at times – and we saw it in the second half against Nebraska. The metrics are slowly taking notice, and if Illinois continues to rattle off wins and can manage to suffocate opponents for a full 40 minutes, the advanced numbers will only climb – which may result in the Illini having a valid argument for a one seed come Selection Sunday.