One Play Away: The Difference Between a No. 1 and No. 3 Seed for Illinois

Let’s go down the list. Nebraska: 83-80 loss. Michigan State: 85-80 overtime loss. Wisconsin; 92-90 overtime loss. UCLA: 95-94 overtime loss. Wisconsin again: 91-88 overtime loss. That is every single one-possession game Illinois has played this year.

Noticing a theme? The result is identical in all of those contests. Now, in the Illini’s defense, there have been a few games in which they pulled away down the stretch, even if the final result wasn’t a single-score differential (vs. Texas Tech, at Purdue, at Nebraska and at Maryland – albeit a close win over the Terrapins is hardly a noteworthy accomplishment).

Yes, in theory, a close loss is “better” than a blowout defeat because it suggests competitiveness, that a team was likely more than capable of winning the game. But comparing the two is like measuring a final grade of 50 percent against 20 percent. Regardless, you failed the class.

And from now on for the Illini, whether a loss comes by 20 points or is a one-point buzzer beater, the season is over. It’s do-or-die.

The difference between a team with a Final Four ceiling and one with a national-championship ceiling is the ability to win close games. Through 32 games, Illinois has too often been on the wrong side of tight contests. And, seemingly, it has come down to just one play every single time (hence the term one-possession game).

Brad Underwood speaks on Illinois' close-game woes

“I have to do better,” Illinois coach Brad Underwood said in the aftermath of Friday's overtime loss to Wisconsin. “I have to help them in those moments. But I think it’s more a one-possession-type situation that we have to understand that we can’t take any possession off. And I think that’s what I’m trying to get this group to understand.”

In the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, the Illini, who held a 15-point advantage in the second half, wound up crumbling, allowing the Badgers to hang around until they managed to push the game into overtime – where Wisconsin ultimately delivered a handful of detrimental blows.

“It’s one rebound,” Underwood said. “You can’t be lazy mentally and not block out. John Blackwell gets a rebound with no block-out at the end of the game. If we get it, we win. If we get a rebound at the Michigan State game in East Lansing, we win. If we get a stop and a rebound against UCLA, we win.”

(We’ll take it from here, coach.) If the Illini hit free throws down the stretch against Wisconsin in Champaign, they win. If they get just one stop and a rebound against Nebraska in Champaign, they win.

Let’s pretend we live in an alternate universe: In this world, the Illini have won all five of these one-possession games. That would give Underwood’s unit a 29-3 record. That makes them a no-brainer one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

All it would have taken is one rebound, one stop, one free throw – just one – in each of those games. And in March, one is everything. One possession can be the difference between a first-round exit and a national championship.

And heading into the Big Dance, being just one play away in all of those games has been the difference between a one seed and the three seed Illinois appears to have slipped into entering the NCAA Tournament.

They say basketball is a game of runs, but it’s truly a game of possessions (especially at the college level). Value each and every one, and the basketball gods will reward you. Ideally, the Illini have learned their lesson – and, if so, they could very well atone for their one-possession sins in the Big Dance.