The One Team Illinois Should Want to Avoid in the Big Ten Tournament

At this stage of Illinois' 2025-26 season, the Illini should fear no foe. They are 23-7, having lost five games by four points or fewer and the other two to No. 3 Michigan and No. 6 UConn. They are ranked No. 9 themselves, with an offense deemed to be college basketball's best by more than one metric, and they possess one of the best combinations of size, shooting and skill in the game.

Illinois is also already a couple of steps ahead of the game, having received the coveted triple bye in the Big Ten Tournament. But no team is invincible, and the Illini may even be more vulnerable than most juggernauts, based on their design and the various tiny vanishing acts that we have witnessed over the past few months. Is there at least one opponent they would prefer not to face in the conference tournament? There should be. But it's probably not why you imagine – and almost definitely not who you think.

Illinois has one worst-case potential foe in the Big Ten Tournament

Illinois basketbal — Mar 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood celebrates an 80-54 win against the Oregon Ducks at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

If you asked Illini coach Brad Underwood to rank the teams remaining in the Big Ten Tournament after Tuesday night by his preference for meeting in the bracket, he would almost certainly refuse outright. He'd likely say something about needing to beat everyone to get where Illinois wants to go anyhow, and that his guys were willing to take on all comers.

And why wouldn't he? He's the head ball coach, and it's his job to instill confidence in his guys without jamming the other guys' locker room with billboard material. But there's nothing that says we can't answer the question, so let's get into it. Below, Illinois on SI ranks the five teams the fourth-seeded Illini should hope to steer clear of in the coming days, topped by their own personal Big Ten boogeyman.

5) Purdue

The Boilermakers' fall from grace this season – Purdue was college basketball's preseason No. 1 but is the seventh seed in the conference tournament – can't be overstated, but anyone penciling in an Illinois win over Matt Painter and his crew in a hypothetical championship-game matchup should check themselves.

No. 11 @IlliniMBB hit 18-38 from distance at No. 4 Purdue 🏹

The last four came in bunches down the stretch 👇 pic.twitter.com/2O0Ho0sj5e
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) January 24, 2026

The Illini needed a galactic performance from Keaton Wagler and a hail of threes to escape Mackey Arena with a win back in January. Braden Smith is a killer in screen-and-roll and driving the lane, and Illinois has struggled all season to bottle up that particular brand of opposing player. And as the most accurate perimeter-shooting team in the league, Purdue could burn the Illini in Chicago in precisely the same way Illinois pulled the rug out on the Boilers back in West Lafayette.

4) Michigan

More so than any other team it has faced, Michigan gave Illinois the business in the regular season. The regular-season Big Ten champion Wolverines out-hustled and outmuscled the Illini, a rare feat that, truth be told, probably happens four out of five times if these teams were able to extend the series.

But that's actually why Underwood should want to meet top-seeded Michigan in the semifinals (where the teams would clash if each wins its first tournament game Friday). There is no better team participating in this event, and the Wolverines already seem to have Illinois' number. The Illini could use the reps and another crack at Big Blue to steel themselves for a run in the NCAAs. Duke and Arizona will be equally formidable, and – who knows? – maybe it will be Michigan that again stands in Illinois' way a couple weeks from now.

"I'm feeling 1989 right now." @TheAndyKatz isn’t a Swiftie, but he sees a path to a Michigan-Illinois Final Four rematch in Indianapolis 👀#B1GToday pic.twitter.com/GHu7vjrTEb
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 27, 2026

T-2) Michigan State and UCLA

Both the Spartans and Bruins nipped the Illini in overtime during the regular season, and both feature a lightning strike of a guard – Jeremy Fears Jr. for the Spartans and Donovan Dent for the Bruins – who routinely shredded Illinois' long-but-sometimes-lumbering defense. If the pieces were to fall into place in either scenario, the Illini wouldn't meet three seed MSU or six seed UCLA until the final.

There is something in that: It would mean Illinois had won two games in the conference tourney and likely solidified a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It would also give the Illini another chance to try to correct their issues against those kinetic guards (see also: Purdue's Smith, Michigan's Elliot Cadeau, et al). But if they come this far, it would also mean the Illini had likely already knocked off the Wolverines in the semis, and in that case, a superior matchup against No. 2 Nebraska in the final would hold more appeal than one against the Spartans or Bruins. Might as well go win the whole thing, right?

1) Wisconsin

Wait ... Bucky? Yes, the Badgers. When Wisconsin clipped Illinois in overtime in Champaign in February, it was the sum of all fears: The Illini failed to bounce back from a loss to the Spartans in East Lansing. They faltered on their home court. And, inexcusably, they ruined Jake Davis Wig Night at the State Farm Center.

What the defeat also showed, however, is that even a decent team with two dynamic guards is a threat to Illinois. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell (a combined 49 points) torched the Illini – and not just on the edges. The Badgers' duo went a combined 8-for-16 on threes, but they also worked over Illinois' interior D.

Underwood has seemingly adjusted his defensive philosophies on the fly this season, and since the regular-season loss to Wisconsin, he has been insistent on firming up his rim protection and defense in the paint at the expense of a few decent three-point looks. In any case, if the fifth-seeded Badgers are arguably one of the toughest matchups the Illini could face in this tournament, and they would meet them first in their draw – in the semis. If Illinois were to lose there, they could slip in the NCAA Tournament seedings and have no more chances to correct their mistakes ahead of one-and-done season. That's a worst-case scenario for the Illini.