Illinois' Offense Unexpectedly Rises in KenPom Despite Michigan State Loss

On Saturday night in East Lansing, Michigan, Illinois shot just 36.6 percent from the field against Michigan State, which included a 27.8-percent dud from long range. Those efficiency numbers are poor for any offensive unit – but the Illini aren’t just any offense. At one point this season, Illinois had the highest-rated offense in KenPom history.

Even after Illinois' loss to the Spartans, the Illini offense still remains the top-ranked unit in the nation – and by a relatively healthy margin. In fact, despite their horrid offensive showing against Michigan State, the Illini actually saw their offensive efficiency climb in KenPom.

Brad Underwood’s club had its second-worst field-goal-shooting performance of the year against MSU, not to mention its fourth-worst effort from long range (also from an efficiency standpoint). So what gives?

Illinois surprisingly climbs in KenPom offensive efficiency

Despite it all, the advanced analytics were somehow "impressed" by Illinois’ night. Here are two potential reasons that may explain what seems like a baffling offensive efficiency jump – from 130.7 to 131.6 – in KenPom:

Michigan State’s defense is spectacular

The advanced metrics take into account the opponent – and Illinois’ opponent was one of the best in the country, specifically on the defensive end. The Spartans have the fourth-best D in the nation, and it was ranked No. 1 just two short weeks ago.

Spartans coach Tom Izzo is probably the most well-respected defensive coach in the country – and certainly the most proven. His team scouts extremely well, has second-to-none attention to detail, elite one-on-one defenders and exceptional principles.

The Spartans are tough to beat off the dribble, and if you can somehow do that, you're typically met by what must feel like an infinite line of help defenders. (Michigan State has help defenders for its help defenders.)

Then, perhaps most importantly, Izzo’s club limits teams to one shot. An overlooked component of defense is the rebound – finishing the defensive possession. Michigan State almost never has trouble in that department (except on Saturday night).

Second-chance opportunities tend to be some of the highest quality shots in the game. Limiting those can make the difference between a good defense and a great one.

The Illini found success on the offensive boards

That Illinois managed 82 points (yes, an extra five minutes via overtime helped) against this Michigan State defense is noteworthy – even if its efficiency was subpar.

The Illini did it through one of their favorite (and best, according to Izzo) areas: the offensive glass. Despite losing the battle of the boards by 10, they managed to snatch 15 offensive rebounds, which they flipped into 14 second-chance points.

So although Illinois’ rate from the field was an eyesore, Underwood’s unit still found a way to score 1.19 points per possession – a solid number. Finding ways to score when shots aren’t falling is what breeds success in March. The Illini, for the most part, did that against the Spartans.

Illinois’ costly defensive woes

Feb 7, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) drives past Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) during overtime at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

Illinois erased much of its good work with a letdown on the other end, yielding 85 points (and an unacceptable 1.25 points per possession) to a mediocre-at-best Michigan State offense – not to mention allowing 15 offensive boards to the Spartans.

In turn, the Illini defense dropped from No. 18 to No. 22 in KenPom. (Illinois remains at No. 4 overall in KenPom’s rankings.) Finding consistency on defense will be the next step for this Illini squad – one that could potentially launch it from Final Four contender into team-to-beat territory.