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Illinois Projected as Top Seed in Latest ESPN Bracketology From Joe Lunardi

The Illini currently check in as a No. 4 seed in ESPN's Bracketology, with health and momentum building toward March
Pranav Hegde|
Dec 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Dec 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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Illinois Fighting Illini

December Bracketology is always a strange mix of overreaction and quiet truth, but for Illinois, Joe Lunardi’s latest projection feels grounded in something real.

Lunardi currently slots the Illini as a No. 4 seed in the East Region, a placement that reflects not just a strong start to the season but also steady progress toward the team becoming the version of itself that will actually have a chance to pull off something consequential in March. It’s also familiar territory: Illinois was projected as a four seed before the season even tipped off. The difference now? The Illini have started to answer the questions that lingered back then.

Heading into the year, Illinois’ talent was obvious, but its cohesion was theoretical. Could coach Brad Underwood stitch together a roster heavy on skill but light on shared reps? Would the defense hold up? How quickly could new pieces settle into defined roles? Through the early portion of the season, those answers have trended in the right direction, and Lunardi’s bracket reflects a team that is doing exactly what it needs to do: winning the games it should, competing in the ones that matter and improving as its health stabilizes.

That improvement was on full display in Illinois’ most recent outing – a 43-point demolition of Missouri that doubled as the Illini’s best performance of the season. Rivalry game, national audience, zero mercy. The Illini didn’t just beat the Tigers; they erased them. The ball moved, the defense suffocated and the margin ballooned so quickly that it felt like the second half was played under a running clock. Games like that supercharge efficiency metrics and build a resume that impresses the bracket committee.

For Illinois, that resume is already solid – and growing increasingly resilient. Illinois is 3-3 in Quad 1 games, which isn’t headline-grabbing but is snub-proof on Selection Sunday. There are no bad losses dragging the Illini down, and there are enough quality wins to justify a high seed. More importantly, they finally look like a group capable of stacking results instead of oscillating between promising and frustrating.

Health has been a huge part of that shift. Illinois is now largely whole, with the exception of Ty Rodgers, and that matters more than any single ranking. Rotations are stabilizing, chemistry is building, and Underwood can finally focus on refinement instead of survival. For a team built on versatility and matchup flexibility, continuity is the difference between being dangerous and being predictable.

As for the East Region draw itself, the projected No. 1 seed is UConn, which sounds terrifying. And it is – though there’s some nuance there. Illinois has already faced UConn this season, meeting the Huskies at Madison Square Garden – or “Storrs South.” That experience matters. There’s value in knowing the physicality, the spacing, the speed of a given matchup – even if the result wasn’t ideal. Again, the Illini theoretically will be healthier (and almost certainly better integrated, connected and harmonious) by the time they would rematch UConn in such a scenario.

The bigger dream is geographic. If Illinois can climb or slide into the Midwest Region, the payoff would be enormous. The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would be played in Chicago, turning a neutral site into something much closer to a home environment. Crowd energy, reduced travel, comfort level – those margins compound in March.

And here’s the encouraging part: Illinois has time. A lot of it. Big Ten play will provide no shortage of Quad 1 opportunities, and seeding lines are fluid by design. The Illini don’t need to be perfect – they just need to be peaking at the right time.

Right now, Illinois looks healthy, confident and increasingly unified. The four seed isn’t a ceiling. It’s a starting point.

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Pranav Hegde
PRANAV HEGDE

Primarily covers Illinois football, basketball and golf, with an emphasis on news, analysis and features. Hegde, an electrical engineering student at Illinois with an affinity for sports writing, has been writing for On SI since April 2025. He can be followed and reached on Instagram @pranavhegde__.

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