Should Illinois Root for North Carolina or VCU in the NCAA Tournament?

Deep NCAA Tournament runs can depend on matchups, as a bit of luck is required for even the best teams to cut down the nets.

So as No. 3 seed Illinois prepares for Thursday's game against No. 14 seed Penn (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT), the coaching staff is likely making initial game plans and scouting reports for the Round of 32. As long as Illinois takes care of business, that game will come against the winner of No. 6 seed North Carolina versus No. 11 seed VCU, which tips off Thursday at 5:50 p.m. CT in Greenville, South Carolina.

By the time the Illini's game is complete, they will know their second-round opponent. Ask Brad Underwood, and he probably wouldn't publicly reveal his preference – if he had one at all. But should he?

Should Illinois root for North Carolina or VCU in NCAA Tournament?

The initial assumption would be that Illinois prefers to play the lower-seeded team, No. 11 VCU, especially when the choice is between a blueblood program like North Carolina or an Atlantic 10 team. That very well may be the correct answer, but look closer at the matchup and you'll see it just isn't that simple.

North Carolina is favored by just 2.5 points on the FanDuel Sportsbook. The only two games in the Round of 64 with narrower point spreads are No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State and No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 10 Missouri, which favor one side by just 1.5 points. Five other games have also have 2.5-point spreads.

VCU is also a popular upset pick, which may have Illinois fans second-guessing which they would rather play. College basketball analysts Seth Davis, John Fanta, Bruce Pearl, Dalen Cuff and Jason Bennetti all picked the Rams to take down the Tar Heels.

VCU Rams guard Terrence Hill Jr. (6) drives against the Dayton Flyers during the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Championship game at PPG Paints Arena. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Under first-year coach Phil Martelli, the 27-7 Rams won the Atlantic 10 regular season and conference tournament titles. They're solid but not outstanding on either end of the floor, ranking 45th in offensive efficiency and 60th in defensive efficiency. Sophomore guard Terrence Hill (14.4 points per game) and junior forward Lazar Djokovic (13.5) are the players to watch.

So what about the Tar Heels?

North Carolina has arguably the best win in the country, defeating the NCAA Tournament's No. 1 overall seed Duke 71-68 on Feb. 7. From that perspective, Illinois would like to avoid the Tar Heels.

CAROLINA WINS! 🐑@UNC_Basketball shows out at home to defeat #Duke, 90-83.#MustSeeACC pic.twitter.com/3DPQ30Kzrg
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) March 5, 2017

However, today's North Carolina team is not the same one that took down the Blue Devils. Star freshman forward Caleb Wilson fractured his hand on Feb. 10 and then broke his thumb in practice while trying to make a late-season return.

Wilson underwent season-ending surgery in March, leaving the Tar Heels without a 6-foot-10 consensus All-American who averages 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Given that Wilson is a projected top-five NBA Draft pick, it likely marks an unfortunate end to his college career.

North Carolina certainly isn't as dangerous without Wilson, but it haven't collapsed in his absence. The Tar Heels are 5-3 without Wilson, including losses to NC State, No. 1 Duke and Clemson – three NCAA Tournament teams – and wins over Pittsburgh, Syracuse, No. 24 Louisville, Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Henri Veesaar North Carolina Basketball — North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) goes up for a dunk at the Spectrum Center. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Tar Heels have a 7-foot All-ACC center in Henri Veesaar, who averages 16.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, and a senior point guard in Seth Trimble, who contributes 14.0 points per game. Coach Hubert Davis has had his ups and downs in five seasons at North Carolina, reaching the 2022 national title game, only to miss the NCAA Tournament the following season.

Given Wilson's injuries and VCU's potential as a Cinderella, it's a close call. But if I were Illinois, I would rather play VCU.

That's no disrespect to VCU, which has a very real chance of upsetting North Carolina on Thursday. But it comes down to Veesaar being a tough matchup for Illinois inside and Trimble being the type of speedy guard who has giving the Illini problems at times this season.

From an overall talent and coaching standpoint, North Carolina gets the nod. So if Illinois fans are looking for a rooting interest in Thursday's game, I'd side with VCU.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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