Illinois Ranked Surprisingly Low in Key Early 2026-27 Preseason Projection

The general consensus ahead of the 2026-27 season: Illinois, which returns the majority of its core from last year’s Final Four squad, is a top five preseason squad.

Hard assertions are difficult to make with six months standing between today and the next campaign, but it’s safe to say the Illini, at the bare minimum, will be a top-10 club entering next year.

Where Illinois ranks in early Bart Torvik 2026-27 rankings

Still, although that may be the opinion of essentially the entire college hoops world, it isn’t one that the analytics currently back up – at least not those from Bart Torvik.

The Bart Torvik model – which, it's worth noting, is a big deal to the NCAA Tournament committee and happened to be high on Illinois for the majority of the 2025-26 season – slots Brad Underwood’s unit outside of the top 10 entering 2026-27.

Per Bart Torvik, the Illini are poised to walk into the 2026-27 season as the No. 13 team in the country and the No. 3 team in the Big Ten (Michigan is rated No. 2 overall and Michigan State is at No. 7).

Here's why Illinois' ranking in Bart Torvik makes no sense

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts against the Connecticut Huskies in the second half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

For the second season in a row, Illinois is expected by Bart Torvik to boast a well-oiled machine on offense (No. 5 projected offense), with a defense lagging a touch behind (No. 25). But with the defensive strides the Illini made down the stretch last season – specifically in the NCAA Tournament – that second number appears to be too low.

And, somewhat bafflingly, the analytical tool rates Illinois as the 11th-most talented team in the country. Unexpected Big Ten squads including Indiana, USC and UCLA all have more talented rosters than the Illini, per the metric. (More understandably, both Michigan and Michigan State also ranked ahead of Illinois.)

Yes, Keaton Wagler is a colossal loss and the exits of Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous are nothing to gloss over. But the Illini do bring in one of the premier transfers in the country – Providence guard Stefan Vaaks – not to mention a loaded freshman class. And, mind you, Illinois was widely considered one of the most talented teams in the nation a year ago and will return a significant portion of that core.

Regardless, although the specific number may be debatable, the metrics and pundits agree: The Illini are tremendously talented. And they bring back veterans – specifically, players with experience alongside one another.

In other words, we’re roughly back where we started: Illinois is likely a top-five preseason team – and Bart Torvik slotting the Illini at No. 13 is teetering on inexplicable.

Then again, the predictive metrics are no different than we are, merely working with the information at hand and unable to fully foresee all the current variables, let alone those to come.

Also ... it’s early May. The NCAA Tournament selection committee uses Bart Torvik in mid-March – which, for those without a calendar handy, is 10-plus months from now. Illinois – and every other team in the country – will have 30-plus games to win over the metrics.

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