How Illinois Can Turn a 2022 Loss to Houston Into a 2026 March Madness Win

Brad Underwood’s NCAA Tournament resume at Illinois isn’t one that the more demanding of the Illini faithful are particularly fond of – though he may be in the midst of changing that as we speak.

With the Illini's takedown of 11th-seeded VCU in the Round of 32, Underwood has officially earned his second Sweet 16 appearance at Illinois (and six total berths in the tournament).

The bad news: The Illini now have to play No. 2 seed Houston. In even worse news, the game is set to take place in Houston, giving the Cougars a de facto home-court advantage.

This Sweet 16 matchup isn’t the first time Underwood and Houston’s Kelvin Sampson have faced off in the NCAA Tournament, as the Cougars took down the Illini 68-53 in the Round of 32 back in 2022. So what lessons, if any, can Underwood take from that shortfall – and how can he apply them in 2026? First, let’s take a look back at the 2022 matchup:

Comparing Illinois and Houston, then and now

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood instructs his team against the Penn Quakers in the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Although Houston (naturally) had an entirely different roster in 2022, the Cougars' personnel back then resembled Sampson’s typical crew: size, length, athleticism and superbly talented guards (none more so than Jamal Shead).

Meanwhile, Illinois relied on an offense that is nearly unrecognizable when compared to today's scheme, as it lived through big man Kofi Cockburn (a two-time All-American) in the post – a four-out-one-in scheme.

Now the Illini play a free-flowing, position-less, five-out offense with exceptional spacing – albeit with a similar concept: draw two and play out of an “advantage situation."

The Cockburn-led 2022 crew struggled mightily against Houston in a variety of ways – especially on offense and the glass. In that game, the Illini managed as many made field goals (17) as turnovers committed (17). Defensively, their first-shot defense was solid, but they yielded 15 offensive rebounds to the Cougars.

Here in 2026, despite the personnel changes, Houston is a very similar club in a lot of ways. Exceptional on defense (No. 4 in KenPom), forcing turnovers at an extremely high clip (13th in the country in turnover percentage) and dangerous on the offensive boards (No. 26 in offensive rebounding percentage), this Houston team can pose many of the same problems.

How does Illinois' Brad Underwood combat Houston’s strengths?

The tallest team in the country, Illinois has the ability to keep opponents off the offensive glass – including Houston – but the Illini (No. 3 in the nation in offensive rebounding) haven’t been nearly as dominant on the defensive glass (No. 31 in the country). Putting a strong emphasis on hitting bodies and chasing the ball on both ends will be a must heading into this one.

Additionally, for the vast majority of the season, Illinois has been very protective of the ball (its turnover percentage of 13.0 ranks sixth in the country) – but we have seen that sure-handedness waver at times. VCU sped up the Illini in the first half in the Round of 32, forcing eight turnovers in the first 20 minutes. Houston can do the same – and to an even greater extent given its elite athletes and length.

Guards Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell (as well as others) must remain connected offensively, constantly serving as outlet options for one another when the pressure gets ramped up. If forward David Mirkovic is on the floor, allowing him to bring the ball up against a bigger Houston defender could have value. The Illini need to stay aware, constantly be available for each other and keep things simple, taking what the defense offers.

Forcing anything against the Cougars is a recipe for disaster, yet their ability to wreak defensive havoc often leaves teams no other option than contested shots in iso situations. Wagler's unflappability will be put to the ultimate test on Thursday night – and his answers may very well determine the final result.