Illinois Basketball's NCAA Tournament Chances Depend on These Three Players

Illinois begins its trek to Indianapolis with a meeting against Penn in Greenville, South Carolina, on Thursday (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. How far the Illini go – which, given the volatility of this squad, makes up quite the range – will rest heavily on the performances of these three players below:

3 players who will decide Illinois’ NCAA Tournament run

Keaton Wagler

Pressure makes diamonds – or, depending on whether your cliche is half-full or half-empty, bursts pipes. Thus far, unflappable freshman standout Keaton Wagler has slowly been morphing into a gem amid all the pressure of running the show for Illinois. Yet he has zero experience in the NCAA Tournament.

Guard play determines floors and ceilings in March, and Wagler is the guard on this Illini roster (having veteran Kylan Boswell by his side doesn’t hurt, though). Brad Underwood and Co. rely on Wagler (17.9 points and 4.4 assists) to carry a substantial load offensively. Can he sustain it?

To date, we have yet to see anything suggesting Wagler won’t be ready for the moment, but then again, March has been anything but kind to freshman guards (V.J. Edgecombe, Jeremiah Fears and Illinois’ own Kasparas Jakucionis were all bounced before the Sweet 16 last year).

How will Wagler respond when it isn’t his night? If Illinois makes the Sweet 16 and meets Houston – a team built to make the lives of on-ball guards miserable, how will he find a way to make an impact? The answer to those questions will determine how long the Illini will be dancing.

Tomislav Ivisic

We aren’t faulting Tomislav Ivisic for hitting just six of his last 33 shots from beyond the arc. Shooting comes and goes. But for Illinois to put together a deep run in the tournament, it needs its starting big man to remain confident from deep – regardless of the outcome. His ability to pull opposing bigs away from the basket is integral to the Illini’s offensive success. Ideally, he makes them, but all he really has to do is keep getting them up.

We will, however, hold Ivisic to account for racking up three measly blocks over the past seven games. He may not be the twitchiest athlete – and blocks are hardly a tell-all stat – but that number over that stretch is inexcusable for a 7-foot-1 player of his distinction. In that same seven-game period, he is averaging just 4.9 rebounds – also baffling. More made threes would be a welcome sight, but the rest – activity on defense and the glass – is a must from Ivisic in the days ahead.

Andrej Stojakovic

Since returning from his high-ankle sprain in mid-February, Andrej Stojakovic has yet to score in double digits in back-to-back games. His 30-point outburst against Maryland in January was sandwiched between five games that saw him score fewer than 10 points.

Consistency is non-negotiable in the month of March. Without it, teams get bounced early. Part of the Illini’s offensive brilliance is their ability to survive off nights from certain players. Especially by the Sweet 16, Illinois will need Stojakovic to be cracking double figures every time out.