The Numbers Reveal How Officiating Shaped Illinois' Loss at Michigan State

Let’s start with this: Was Illinois in control of its own fate in East Lansing, Michigan, on Saturday night? Without a doubt. Put together a better showing on the glass (the Illini lost the battle of the boards 48-38 to Michigan State), knock down a few more open threes or slow down the Spartans’ potent transition attack, and Illinois would have left the Breslin Center with its 13th straight victory.

Instead, the Illini did none of the above and were dealt their first loss since the last calendar year. And although it shouldn't be used as an excuse, they admittedly faced an uphill battle due to some – let’s call them questionable – calls from the referees.

How much of an impact did the refs have on Illinois-Michigan State?

There was a first-half trip from Jeremy Fears Jr. on David Mirkovic that can be interpreted as shady, though even Illinois coach Brad Underwood and Mirkovic himself dismissed after the game. It could be argued either way, but within context, Fears' movements didn’t appear to come naturally within the flow of the game. (Be the judge yourself and watch below.)

Brad Underwood and Illinois lose the appeal on this play for a missed call, where it appears Jeremy Fears Jr. trips Illinois' Mirkovic. pic.twitter.com/ifUtoBOmT2
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 8, 2026

Fears also clearly grabbed Mirkovic on an overtime drive – which wasn’t called – before attacking the rim and fouling out big man Tomislav Ivisic despite minimal contact. (Watch that one just below.)

This was called a foul on Tomislav Ivisic. Be fouled out on this play. pic.twitter.com/fczqAq6SLj
— College Hoops Database (@CollegeHoopsTIk) February 8, 2026

There were a handful of other missed calls on Illinois’ end, along with near-phantom calls for Michigan State. Then again, freshman Keaton Wagler drew a whistle late in the contest, despite what appeared to be picture-perfect defense from the Spartans’ Jordan Scott.

It did go both ways – but seemingly not close to evenly. Nearly every loose-ball foul was called on the Illini and, down the stretch, the Spartans – and specifically Fears – happened to be on the right side of every call. On one hand, drawing whistles is a skill, and Fears has mastered it. The heady lead guard did a tremendous job of putting the onus on the referees. Still, it’s up to the officials to make the right calls. And, strictly based on the eye test, they didn’t. The numbers appear to back that up.

Michigan State's generous whistle at home

Feb 7, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) makes a shot and draws a foul against Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) during overtime at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

During Big Ten play, Michigan State’s opponents have been called for 20.1 fouls per game in East Lansing. On the road, that number dwindles to just 15.8. But, hey, that’s just home-court advantage in the Big Ten, right? Wrong.

In league contests for Illinois, opponents have been whistled for 17.6 fouls per game in Champaign. On the road, that number actually climbs to 19.5. An objective observer might find that odd, but there's a certain amount of statistical variability that any basketball fan understands comes with the game. Still, take a second to consider that: Illini opponents are being whistled more often in their own buildings than at the State Farm Center.

Additionally, Illinois entered the game averaging just 12.7 fouls per game – the second-lowest rate in the country. Underwood and his staff have made a huge point of avoiding fouls and keeping opponents off the free-throw line. Saturday night’s foul total of 21 tied Illinois’ season high, and it was the highest number for the club in nearly two months (the Illini matched it on the road at Ohio State in the Big Ten opener on Dec. 9).

Illinois-Michigan State was the first time the Illini had more fouls than their opponent

Any matchup between Illinois and Michigan State – a pair of gritty teams, both of which feast on the glass – is bound to be physical and foul-heavy. The Illini's total number of fouls can be misleading, as the Spartans had 19 themselves. But then there’s this: Illinois hadn’t fouled more often than its opponent in a single game at any point this season – until Saturday night.

Again, the Illini falling in East Lansing was unequivocally on them. The referees did not decide the outcome of the game. They never do. But to say the referees can't play a role would be false. And to say they didn’t play too much of a role Saturday night at the Breslin Center would be equally untrue.