ESPN's Advanced Metric Predicts Blowout for Illinois-Purdue

The Illini are expected to route the Boilermakers in West Lafayette, per ESPN's SP+ metric

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema leads his team down the Illini Walk before an NCAA football game with the Southern California Trojans at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Just a week ago, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave No. 22 Illinois (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) just a 27.1 percent chance of knocking off then-No. 21 USC. And, at least in Week 5, that metric wasn’t the only one that was down on the Illini, as nearly every college football pundit picked the Trojans to walk away with a top-25 road victory.

Now, a week later, with Purdue (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) on tap, we at Illinois on SI believe there isn't a great deal of value in looking to ESPN’s FPI – it gives Illinois a 74.7 percent chance of winning, for any interested parties – and would rather turn our attention to its sister analytics tool, Bill Connelly’s SP+.

Connelly, one of ESPN’s finest college football minds, created the metric back in 2008, and, per its originator, SP+ is a “predictive and forward-facing" model.

The tool doesn’t just calculate the likelihood of each squad winning but also projects a final score. In a game that (theoretically) should belong to Illinois, we find an SP+ prediction for Illinois-Purdue to be far more interesting than FPI.

Prediction: Illinois blow out Purdue

The metric gives Bret Bielema’s Illini squad an 85 percent chance of taking down the Boilermakers, while projecting a final score of 37-20.

WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS

Bama 29, Vandy 27!
Miami 30, FSU 27
Notre Dame 38, Boise 24
Clemson 29, UNC 22
A&M 30, Miss St 25
Texas 26, Florida 17
UGA 35, UK 17
Navy 40, Air Force 21 (uh, 20-1 probably more likely)https://t.co/ugeTVlHZMY pic.twitter.com/ExMnaufGqF

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 29, 2025

Where is Illinois ranked in the SP+?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema gives players a hand after a 34-32 win against the Southern California Trojans at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Illini are 25th in the metric, and rose 11 spots following their Week 5 victory (USC is currently listed at No. 12). Offensively, Illinois has the 17th-ranked unit in the nation, while its defense – harmed by that abysmal showing against Indiana – slots at No. 42.

Where is Purdue ranked in the SP+?

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers wide receiver Arhmad Branch (6) catches a pass during the second half against the USC Trojans at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Down at No. 82 overall, the Boilermakers have a relatively poor – by Big Ten standards – offense (No. 79) and defense (No. 89). Interestingly, they did move up two spots during their bye week – likely due to their most recent opponent, Notre Dame, dismantling Arkansas by a score of 56-13.

What it means

The key takeaway is clear: Illinois is supposed to win its Week 6 matchup – and by a wide margin. And with a meeting against No. 1 Ohio State on the docket in Week 7, the Illini would surely welcome a steamrolling of the Boilermakers to build on the momentum from last week’s huge victory.

Most importantly, the ability of Aaron Henry’s defense to hold up against a mediocre-at-best Purdue offense should be a telltale sign of what’s to come for that looming matchup with the Buckeyes.

On the other end of the field, expect offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. and quarterback Luke Altmyer to carve up Purdue through the air, while Kaden Feagin and Co. run rampant on the ground.