ESPN Releases Top 32 College Football Playoff Contenders: Is Illinois on the List?

The preseason projections for Illinois are scattered – not quite all over the board, but far from forming a consensus. The only thing everyone can seem to agree on is this: Illinois is, without a doubt, a top-25 team. There’s a case to be made for Bret Bielema’s squad to be a top-15 club, but there are also skeptics who put the Illini closer to the finges of the top 25. Then there’s the analytics. And let’s just say they do not favor Illinois – at least not ESPN's metrics.

ESPN ranked its top 32 College Football Playoff contenders by the likelihood (percentage-wise) that a team can find itself in the 2025 CFP, according to its numbers. The spectrum stretched from Texas at the top (83.9 percent) to Texas Tech (10.3 percent) at No. 32.

Take a look at each team listed by conference:

Big Ten	SEC	ACC	Big 12	Non P4
Ohio State (70.6%)	Texas (83.9%)	Clemson (47.3%)	Kansas State (22.2%)	Notre Dame (45.6%)
Penn State (63.8%)	Georgia (78.6%)	Miami (46.3%)	Arizona State (16.1%)	Boise State (25.2%)
Oregon (57.5%)	Alabama (66.2%)	SMU (21.1%)	Kansas (13.4%)	Tulane (24.3%)
Michigan (25.3%)	Tennessee (38.5%)	Virginia Tech (12.5%)	BYU (12.6%)	UNLV (21.3%)
USC (21.0%)	Texas A&M (34.3%)		Baylor (10.5%)
Nebraska (10.3%)	Ole Miss (30.7%)		TCU (10.3%)
	LSU (30.3%)		Texas Tech (10.3%)
	Auburn (21.8%)
	South Carolina (20.3%)
	Oklahoma (18.4%)
	Florida (14.5%)

Nope, your eyes are not deceiving you, Illinois is nowhere to be found on the list. And, yes, that is Nebraska you see. (The Cornhuskers were listed at No. 30.)

Keep in mind that squads such as Boise State, Tulane and UNLV have an inherent advantage as non-Power 4 teams. With the new 12-team CFP format, the five highest-ranked conference champions earn an automatic bid, meaning there will always be at least one non-Power 4 program in the mix.

But that only explains three teams ahead of Illinois. There are at least 29 others – and potentially more. Then again, all things considered, it’s hardly a shock. ESPN’s analytics rely strictly on numbers, and given the Illini’s oft-needed last-minute heroics last season, they didn’t have the usual gaudy statistical resume of a 10-3 team. A penalty here, a poorly thrown ball there, or any number of misfortunes could have turned Illinois' 10-3 record into 7-6. (The Nebraska, Purdue and Rutgers wins were practically toss-ups.)

Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini wide receiver Pat Bryant (13) gains yards after catch during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

At the end of the day, though, Illinois did go 10-3 – and it wasn’t simply due to luck. Tough-as-nails quarterback Luke Altmyer was poised and under control in all three of those outings. Individual players made outstanding, game-altering and, in some cases, game-winning plays. (Hello, Dylan Rosiek.)

The sack that sealed the deal in Champaign 🔥#B1GFootball x @IlliniFootball pic.twitter.com/2XtqpN3WeB
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 12, 2024

And given the returning level of production Illinois has on both sides of the ball, there is no reason to think the Illini can’t be in the thick of the race for a CFP bid – despite the analytics (which also weigh recruiting performance – not an area of strength for the Illini until this year). If Altmyer takes a step forward, the offensive line holds strong and the defense plays up to expectations, then Illinois should find itself on the right side of program history come late December.

ESPN Releases Top 32 College Football Playoff Contenders: Is Illinois on the List?

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