Josh Pate Snubs Illinois in Favor of Nebraska for a Projected 2025 CFP Berth

The Illini are the favorite to lock in the Big Ten's fourth spot in the College Football Plaoff – but not in Pate's estimation

Sep 2, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema reacts after a play against the Toledo Rockets during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Big Ten has three surefire College Football Playoff teams this year: Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon. And many experts agree that the conference will see one other team sneak into the CFP. But few can agree which squad that will be. Last year it was Indiana. Can the Hoosiers repeat? What about Michigan, led by ultra-hyped freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood? And how about Illinois, which returns a conference-leading 16 starters from a 10-win 2024 team?

Many, including ESPN and we here at Illinois on SI, have the Illini sitting atop the Big Ten’s second tier, and consider coach Bret Bielema’s club to be the favorite to secure that final spot for the conference in the CFP.

But not everyone agrees. In fact, CFB guru Josh Pate channeled his inner Max Kellerman, and with the fate of the universe on the line – the Martians pointing the death beam menacingly at Earth – Pate settled on … Nebraska.

Why Nebraska?

Dec 28, 2024; Bronx, NY, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) looks on before the game against the Boston College Eagles at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Cornhuskers, fresh off a 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten) season in 2024, do return a few significant pieces, notably sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola – who would likely be the preseason favorite for Most Improved Player if the conference offered that award.

Dylan Raiola with a dot to Luke Lindenmeyer at @HuskerFootball fall camp 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Oq25vDRp1w

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) August 1, 2025

And to be fair, Nebraska was the victim of a handful of misfortunate outcomes in 2024, falling in overtime against Illinois and playing an impressively competitive game against Ohio State (lost 21-17). In fact, Nebraska lost only one outing by double digits in 2024, although it was an historic 56-7 thrashing at the hands of Indiana.

No one is arguing that the Cornhuskers are incapable of putting together a bounce-back season in 2025. The schedule is hardly a gauntlet, and Nebraska gets must-win games against Michigan and USC at home. But can the Huskers actually beat out Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Washington, Iowa, USC and every other squad vying for that fourth conference spot in the CFP? Well, they certainly shouldn't be labeled the favorite.

Illinois’ clearer path

Nov 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) passes the ball against Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

On the flip side, the Illini have that aforementioned bounty of experience, a stingy defense poised for a lockdown campaign and the Big Ten’s most steady offensive presence in quarterback Luke Altmyer. And although Illinois’ schedule isn’t quite as light as it has been made out to be, Bielema’s club still has a dream path to a CFP berth, facing just two preseason top-25 teams all season long – and just one on the road (at No. 20 Indiana).

Are we saying Illinois is a lock for the CFP and Nebraska is living on a Bon Jovi prayer? Not at all. We’re just highlighting the fact that any preseason projection that calls for the Cornhuskers over the Illini in the CFP is a blazing-hot woodfired-pizza-level take.