ESPN's Matchup Predictor Names Surprise Favorite in Indiana vs Nebraska

The Hoosiers and Cornhuskers are set to battle in Bloomington on Saturday. Here's ESPN's unexpected prediction on the contest.

Feb 13, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg reacts to a call during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

No. 10 Nebraska is undefeated at 15-0, owning a victory over Michigan State at home and road wins at both Illinois and Ohio State. The Cornhuskers have been the surprise of this college basketball season, and have undoubtedly cemented themselves as one of the nation’s best units. 

Their undefeated record isn’t by any stroke of luck. Nebraska is legit – on both ends of the floor. Fred Hoiberg’s club played an explosive shootout with Illinois, winning that contest 83-80, before turning around and battling out a 58-56 win in a gritty, defensive showdown against Michigan State.

Indiana (12-3, 3-1 Big Ten), meanwhile, has been stellar thus far, but is yet to nab a premier win. That said, aside from a loss at Minnesota (which, following the Gophers’ win over Iowa, isn’t quite as unsightly as before) the Hoosiers have taken care of business – a noteworthy accomplishment in itself, especially in the always-loaded Big Ten. 

Still, with an Indiana team, which claims its best win as a home victory over a mediocre-at-best Washington team, set to face the (do we dare say?) mighty undefeated Cornhuskers, it feels natural to assume Nebraska is the favorite – even if the contest is set to take place in Bloomington. 

ESPN's analytics tab shocking favorite in Indiana vs Nebraska Big Ten clash

Dec 13, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries reacts to the action during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

But, although that may be the organic line of thought, it’s the wrong one. Very wrong, at least according to ESPN’s matchup predictor. The metric gives Indiana a shocking 70.0 percent chance of knocking off Nebraska on Sunday (12:00 p.m. ET, BTN). 

Worth noting, in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index – which the matchup predictor is based on – Indiana is ranked No. 17 in the country while Nebraska, despite its gaudy resume, sits at just No. 23. Pair that with Indiana’s home-court advantage and it all seems quite logical – but is it? 

Is Indiana actually the favorite vs. Nebraska?

Short answer: no. As previously mentioned, the Cornhuskers are the real deal. Forward Rienk Mast is a bonafide star and sharpshooter Pryce Sandfort is a budding one. Sam Hoiberg runs the show and is perhaps the most underrated lead guard in the country – although not in the eyes of Big Ten coaches who undoubtedly appreciate his value (just ask Michigan State’s Tom Izzo). 

Michigan State HC Tom Izzo has nothing but praise for @HuskerMBB's Sam Hoiberg 🙌 pic.twitter.com/sEJokOqf6N

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 3, 2026

Defensively, Nebraska is well-connected and disciplined, boasting a shockingly effective scheme that completely erases efficient looks near the rim. 

Fortunately, for the Hoosiers, they do most of their work from deep. Knocking down triples against Nebraska isn’t an easy task, but it’s feasible, and no team in the Big Ten is better equipped to do just that than Indiana. 

So, the Hoosiers shouldn’t be considered the “favorite”, but they don’t only have a puncher’s chance. Expect a competitive outing, but the final result will almost surely hinge on Indiana’s ability to connect from long range.