Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland

The SI Golf betting stayed hot to start the Florida swing!

Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner cashed Nico Echavarria +6000 at the Cognizant last week after The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque hit Aldrich Potgieter Top 5 +5500 at Farmers. I hit Justin Rose +6000 at Torrey earlier in the season. We’ve also had two runner-up finishes this year.

Like I said, a hot start.

The big boys are back in action at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, a signature event held at Bay Hill. This is typically one of the hardest courses on Tour. There is lots of water, challenging, rough, and, usually, windy conditions. When handicapping, I thought of strong drivers, Par-5 scoring, accurate approach, and bogey avoidance.

The SI Golf Betting panel includes Kirschner, Lindeque, SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

Scottie Scheffler (+350) and Rory McIlroy (+1000) highlight the field. Both have won here before.

Let’s get into our picks for this week with full write ups on every pick below the graphic.

Arnold Palmer expert betting picks. — Arnold Palmer betting picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Jake Knapp +4000 (FanDuel)

I can’t look past just how well Jake Knapp has played this season. He has finished inside the Top 11 in all five of his starts and he enters this week ranking second in scoring average and third in total strokes gained. Knapp also leads the PGA Tour in Par 5 scoring average, which is a crucial ingredient for success at Bay Hill.

Brian Kirschner: Tommy Fleetwood +1900 (FanDuel)

I think Tommy Fleetwood is primed for a breakout season. He is due to get his first real PGA Tour win and I think API is an excellent spot for that to happen. Tommy has started the year strong with back-to-back Top 10s on the West Coast. He now heads to a course that rewards driving accuracy and will play much tougher than the last two weeks. Hoping to see Tommy in the red cardigan come Sunday.

Brad Thomas: Kurt Kitayama +5000 (Fanatics)

It’s always nice to back a past winner who’s in good form. Kitayama is coming off a runner-up at the Genesis and has been striping his irons recently. He has gained strokes on approach in every event this season, and it looks like the putter change has helped as well. I feel like we’re getting a great price on Kitayama this week. At Bay Hill, you need to target golfers who are strong with their long irons. Kitayama ranks 7th from 175–200 yards and 200+.

Byron Lindeque: Rory McIlroy +1000 (FanDuel)

One can argue that Rory is coming in with some of the best form of a non-winner this year. He is a perennial contender at Bay Hill with a T21 in '24 being his worst finish here dating back to 2017. Over that same stretch, he has had a WIN, T2, T4, T5, T6. With a driver that leads the field in distance off the tee, the first domino of his game is going to be falling in the right direction, rather rapidly. He has never lost strokes off the tee at Bay Hill and has gained 8 strokes on approach at Pebble and 6.5 strokes at Genesis Invitational, which have been his two best weeks over the last year outside of the Masters and Players (winning both). On the greens, combined to lose a total of only 2 strokes in his three worst performances here (the only three times he lost putting here). Did I mention his last start was a 2nd place?

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +4400 (DraftKings)

Byron has the gumption that I didn’t, because I very much wanted to just ride with a full Rory card this week. Instead, I’ll take a few more bites at the apple with Viktor Hovland. The putting has been woeful of late, losing nearly 4.0 strokes at Genesis. But he’s fifth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, and first in proximity from 200+ yards out, both of which are huge at Bay Hill. He also has a T2 and another Top 10 finish at Bay Hill to his credit. If he can catch a hot putter this week, I think he’s striking the ball well enough to end up holding a trophy.

Brian Giuffra: Harris English +4500 (BetMGM)

English hasn’t posted a Top 20 in five starts this year and also missed the cut at the API last year. Yet when I saw the +4500 odds, I couldn’t resist. English is 8th on the PGA Tour in SG: OTT, 22nd in birdie average and 24th in bogey avoidance. He was T2 at API in 2023 and T9 in 2020. Generally, he plays better on tougher tracks. The big issue for him is approach, where he’s 95th on Tour, not great for this week. But he’s more of a spike guy on approach anyway. He tends to start slowly on approach and heat up. I’m betting this is the week that improves.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Alex Noren +8500 (Bet365)

People are quick to forget the run that Alex Noren went on in the fall, winning two DP World Tour events and finishing as the solo runner-up at the Hero World Challenge. He may still have a bit of that form coming into this week after a T12 finish at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. His short game is one of the strongest on Tour, so if we see wind this week, look for Noren to be the one who’s able to steady the ship and climb the leaderboard.

Brian Kirschner: Ryan Fox +14000 (DraftKings)

Fox, who won twice on Tour last season, has started the season well, highlighted by his T7 at Riviera. Since playing on the PGA Tour this season, Ryan has not lost strokes to the field in any major category. At Riv, his play was highlighted by great iron play and putting. He already has a top 15 here. There is no reason he can't play well again in Orlando.

Brad Thomas: Aldrich Potgieter +15000 (BetMGM)

Potgieter is interesting because everyone assumes his only weapon is the driver. Yes, the young South African can pound it a mile, but he’s also been excellent on approach. There was a bit of a settling-in period at the Genesis, but once he found his rhythm, the approach numbers were strong. He gained more than three strokes on approach in two of the four rounds. His second trip around Bay Hill should be much better. Look for him to contend.

Byron Lindeque: Aldrich Potgieter +15000 (BetMGM)

My fellow countryman cashed a +5500 Top 5 at Riv, and is now priced at +15000 to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As I mentioned two weeks ago, when you have to hit a lot of long irons, you place a couple of dollars on Aldrich! His dad personally told me at the JDC last year that he struggled on the KFT because of the abundance of wedge fests that did not allow him to separate himself from the pack very much. Aldrich’s distance off the tee and his ability to hit irons into greens from 260 yards away allow him to land it softly on the rock-hard greens at Bay Hill, which is ultra important if you are looking to capitalize on the Par 5s this week, which is where winners typically do most of their scoring.

Cody Williams: Keith Mitchell +8000 (BetMGM)

This is just trying to catch a bit of a trend with Keith Mitchell. In three of his last four events, Mitchell has gained at least 2.1 strokes on approach, including two at 4.44 or more. The only problem is that the short game has continued to be a problem. But now, one of the better ball-strikers on Tour has tried out a new putting grip that saw him gain two strokes on the green last week at the Cognizant, which also happens to be Bermuda greens. If Mitchell can figure out his short game, he has the tee-to-green play to be in contention.

Brian Giuffra: Rickie Fowler +6000 (FanDuel)

This isn’t about the name. It’s about the numbers. Rickie is 30th on Tour in SG: Approach, 13th in total driving, 16th in putting, 18th in scoring average, 22nd in bogey avoidance, and 31st in birdie average. The primary area holding him back is his short game. His best finish at API was T3 back in 2013. Since then, he has three Top 20s, five outside Top 20s and a missed cut. Still, I see him on the front of the leaderboard come Sunday.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 (FanDuel)

No golfer on the PGA Tour has been a better ballstriker than Matt Fitzpatrick this season, but his putting has let him down. Thankfully, he now heads to a course where he’s never lost strokes on the greens. Fitzpatrick is also seventh on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 67.25.

Brian Kirschner: Nicolai Hojgaard +4500 (DraftKings)

Nicolai has played extremely well to start the year. He now has back-to-back top 10s at WMPO and the Cognizant Classic. He has been hitting his irons incredibly well and that is going to be very important this week. He has a great mix of distance plus accuracy OTT and this bodes well for a first-round lead on Thursday.

Brad Thomas: Collin Morikawa +3100 (DraftKings)

Morikawa has been great. His numbers have been sick, and he’s second in my first-round model, only behind Scottie Scheffler.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +3600 (DraftKings)

Russell Henley ranks third in my R1 model as he has great course history here with a win, 4th and 13th in his last four appearances. He also averages more strokes (+2.0) than Rory McIlroy (+1.9) in round 1. He tees it up alongside his Ryder Cup partner, Scottie Scheffler, at 10:20, which is still early enough to take advantage of some softer conditions and lighter winds. Have a day Russ!

Cody Williams: Chris Gotterup +4500 (DraftKings)

Chris Gotterup has cooled off a bit, including missing the cut at Genesis, since his two wins early in the year. Having said that, we know that his length will play at Bay Hill and that he has a full arsenal of shots in his repertoire. I’m not sure the form is good enough to bank on for a full tournament against this type of field, but he’s always a candidate to catch lightning in a bottle for a round.

Brian Giuffra: Rickie Fowler +5100 (DraftKings)

Do I expect Rickie to go wire-to-wire? No. But when considering FRL picks this week, I looked at hot putter, hot approach game, hot driver. Rickie fits all three, gaining roughly 8 strokes per event in those metrics over the last three weeks. Don't love his late start time, but the weather doesn't look crazy. Let's break some hearts Rick!

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Jake Knapp Par 5 Winner +4100 (DraftKings)

As I wrote about above, not only is Jake Knapp third on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, but he’s leading the Tour in both Par 5 performance (-53) and Par 5 scoring average (4.17), 0.4 strokes better than the next best golfer. If you’re going to give me 41-1 odds on the best Par 5 golfer on the PGA Tour to finish with the best combined scores on Par 5s, I’m going to take it every time.

Brian Kirschner: Pierceson Coody Top 20 +146 (DraftKings)

Coody has really played himself into some great events this year with his stellar results in 2026. I expect that to continue this week. Coody has played this event before and finished well, even when his play wasn’t where it is today. Elite iron play should keep him safely inside the Top 20 this week.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp Top 20 +150 (FanDuel)

This kid is a baller. He’s finished inside the top 10 in four of his first five events, with his worst result is a T11. He’s been excellent with his long irons, and even at a course that punishes wayward drives, he still managed to finish sixth. He’s the kind of player who feels close to another win. I expect him to have a strong chance to contend this weekend.

Byron Lindeque: Shane Lowry Top 20 +122 (DraftKings)

Shane Lowry could be the bass guitarist for the Red Hot Chili Peppers, because scar tissue is not an issue for the Irishman who has had his fair share of Irish goodbyes on Cognizant Sundays. In 2024, he also entered the final round of the Cognizant Classic in a tie for the lead, ultimately finishing in a watery T4. However, he improved on that finish with a third place at the API a week later. Last year, he kept his FootJoys out of the bear trap en route to a T11, which he then followed up with another top 10 at Bay Hill (7th). He is playing really good golf right now and I fancy another solid outing from him this year.

Cody Williams: Rory McIlroy Top 5 incl. ties +175 (BetMGM)

As I said, I wanted to go Rory across the board here, but I’ll stick with my prop. In 11 starts at Bay Hill, Rory has never finished outside the Top 30 and has only finished outside the Top 15 twice. He clearly loves this place, and is coming in sitting at ninth in SG: Approach with all of the distance we know he has. I’d be truly shocked if he’s not flirting with the top of the leaderboard throughout the week.

Brian Giuffra: Harris English Top 5 +570 (DraftKings)

I hit English in the winner W/O Scheffler market at the British Open last year. If I think he can win this week with Scottie in the field again, I certainly think he can contend. Even if it’s a backdoor Top 5, I see English’s name on the leaderboard come Sunday. Let’s get bold and assume his strong play not only breaks through the Top 20 mark, but the Top 5.

Winning Score

Iain MacMillan: -12
Brian Kirschner: -12
Brad Thomas: -14
Byron Lindeque: -12
Cody Williams -10
Brian Giuffra: -11

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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