WM Phoenix Open Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Sahith Theegala, Maverick McNealy and Hideki Matsuyama

If this is the last Waste(d) Management Phoenix Open held over Super Bowl weekend, let’s make it a winning one! Or should I say, another winning one!

I hit Justin Rose +6000 at Torrey last week and also cashed my prop of Brooks Koepka making the cut. Now I have delusions of grandeur of making it back-to-back. It's like shooting a 78, thinking you're great at golf, then shooting 90 next time.

The SI Golf Betting panel includes SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

New PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp has floated the idea of condensing the PGA Tour season to completely avoid the NFL Playoffs/Super Bowl. The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale will remain part of the PGA Tour rotation, but this may be its last hurrah during Super Bowl weekend.

Scottie Scheffler is a massive betting favorite, of course, with +240 odds at BetMGM, which were the longest I could find. He’s won twice here previously, won the AmEx two weeks ago and has won four of his last seven starts, so yeah, just an absolute machine.

There are plenty of other players to consider, of course, and we have plenty across the gamut. Let’s get into them!

WM Phoenix Open best Bets — WM Phoenix Open Bets. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Hideki Matsuyama +2700 (DraftKings)

Few golfers have been playing as well as Hideki Matsuyama has the past few months, winning the Hero World Challenge and then following that up with a T13 finish at the Sony Open and a T11 finish at the Farmers’ Insurance Open last week. Now, he returns to an event that he’s already won twice before. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball, which makes him a perfect fit for TPC Scottsdale.

Brian Kirschner: Cam Young +2400 (DraftKings)

I think many people were pegging Cam Young to have a true breakout season in 2026. It very well could get started this week at WMPO. Cam started his season at Torrey with a solid T22, where he gained over 4 strokes on approach and 2.3 strokes off the tee. Cam has shown success in the desert before with a T12 and T8 over his last two trips here. He is one of the few people in the field I think can take down Scottie.

Brad Thomas: Sahith Theegala +5000 (Bet365)

There’s always one golfer who everyone is like, “I dare you to show me life, and I will bet you.” For me, that’s Sahith Theegala. Between his elite course history here (+1.82 SG over 16 rounds) and back-to-back excellent finishes, with a T8 at The American Express and T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open, it finally feels like his game is trending in the right direction. The +2.67 strokes he gained on approach are exactly what we need to see heading into the WM Phoenix Open.

Byron Lindeque: Cameron Young +2400 (DraftKings)

The winner of the Wyndham Championship is on a run of six T22s since that win, excluding one of the most volcanically active fist pumps seen on American Ryder Cup television by the dormant volcano that is Cameron Young. I felt that ferocious fist pump in Iowa when he won his match vs Justin Rose on the 18th green of a VERY important Sunday singles in New York. After seismic finishes of 12th and 8th in the last two WMPOs, we have volcanic lava drizzling down the demeanor of one of the best putters in the world, who now boasts confidence that rivals the heat of our earth’s very core.

Cody Williams: Si Woo Kim +2700 (DraftKings)

Si Woo Kim has been on an absolute heater to start the 2026 season with three starts and no finish worse than T11—a run that also includes going T2 at Farmers. While his history at TPC Scottsdale isn’t pristine, he’s figured some things out, finishing T26 or better in each of the past four years. He’s actually first in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and third in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage. Maybe look at the winner without market due to Scottie’s presence, but Kim is playing as good as anyone in the world right now.

Brian Giuffra: Maverick McNealy +3700 (Bet365)

I’m convinced Mav is going to win a few times this year. His consistency off the tee and spike potential on approach and with the flatstick are too strong not to. Why not this week? He was T9 here last year and T6 in 2024. He was 10th at the Farmers last week and T24 at the Sony. A good start that could get much better here.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Keith Mitchell +7500 (FanDuel)

Keith Mitchell led the entire field last week in strokes gained tee to green among all golfers who made the cut. Unfortunately, a poor week putting kept him from contending, but if he can carry that level of ball striking into this week, he’ll have a chance to contend. He has four top 25 finishes in the past six years at this tournament.

Brian Kirschner: Michael Thorbjornsen +6000 (Bet365)

Thor is an elite ballstriker who has a great mix of distance and accuracy off the tee. He has shown the ability to contend on TPC designs with high-end finishes at TPC Deere Run and TPC Riverhighlands. Of all the places I think that Thor will contend this year, WMPO seems like a perfect fit.

Brad Thomas: Andrew Novak +10000 (FanDuel)

Novak is an enticing longshot because it seems like he’s finally playing with a ton of confidence. Coming off of his best approach tournament of his career, this number feels right

Byron Lindeque: Sepp Straka +8000 (DraftKings)

I understand he missed the cut at the AmEx as the defending champion, but need I remind you that the World No. 12 finished third at the Hero just two starts ago and will look to improve on his 15th-place finish last year. +8000? Sign me up!

Cody Williams: Michael Kim +15000 (Caesars)

I certainly had forgotten Michael Kim’s T2 finish at this event last year, but it makes me feel even better. Over the last 24 rounds, Kim has been Top 20 in SG: Approach and third in SG: Putting. For good measure, he’s also in the top quarter of the field in scrambling. His woes off the tee could be a problem, but there’s enough in his game right now to sprinkle on him bettering his success here from a year ago.

Brian Giuffra: Sepp Straka +8000 (DraftKings)

This doesn’t tend to be an event where longshots win. Yes, they've hit the last two years, but in the last 10 years overall, those are the only winners with longer odds than 50-1. The other thing those winners have in common? They’re mostly stoic, consistent players with a history of success here. Straka has only played here twice and was 15th last year. He also has success on other TPC sites. He was 3rd at the Hero a few months ago. He won early last year. Perhaps we strike early again with a guy who doesn't get too high or low but can spike in big tournaments.

First Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Pierceson Coody +5500 (FanDuel)

Pierceson Coody has gotten off to a strong start to the season, including sporting a Round 1 scoring average of 66 across three events. He gained +3.09 strokes from tee to green last week, catapulting him to a T2 finish at Torrey Pines. Let’s see if he carries that momentum into the first round at TPC Scottsdale.

Brian Kirschner: Keith Mitchell +5700 (DraftKings)

Keith went on a run of insane first-round leads in 2025, so he is someone to certainly target for this market. This UGA alumnus absolutely striped it last week, gaining over 8 strokes on approach and nearly four off the tee. He was unable to make many putts, but he has shown he can putt on these surfaces before.

Brad Thomas: Nick Taylor +7000 (DraftKings)

Nick Taylor fits the mold of a classic first-round leader target, the type of golfer who consistently spikes on certain courses regardless of form. He was FRL here in 2024 and was second after the first in 2023, so he clearly likes this course. Add in the fact that he already has one 18-hole lead this season and he makes a ton of sense here. When Taylor gets to a course he likes, he tends to start fast.

Byron Lindeque: Ben Griffin +4500 (DraftKings)

Ben Griffin has been playing exceptional golf this year, but we really don’t know that because the majority of his damage has come on a Thursday. He has finished inside the top 3 in three of his last four starts. The start he didn’t finish top 3 he ended up winning at the WWT Championship! If you want to grab Scheffler at +1100 on FanDuel as Cody suggests below, DraftKings also has a without Scheffler market (+3600)! Throw those clothes into the bushes and double-dip with me!

Cody Williams: Scottie Scheffler +1100 (FanDuel)

It’s Scottie Scheffler, man. I never feel good about betting at +240 or whatever his outright odds are, but we can get a little creative. There’s always a legitimate chance that Scottie puts his foot on the gas early and never looks back. I’ll take 11/1 on the best player in the world continuing to show emphatically that he’s, you know, the best player in the world.

Brian Giuffra: Min Woo Lee +6300 (DraftKings)

The challenge of betting on Min Woo Lee is he’s streaky. He can pop any week with the putter, but the metric to follow is approach. When he contended (and won) last year, he tended to gain strokes on approach the event before. Well, he gained nearly three strokes on approach at the AmEx. Now he takes that into an event he was T12 at last year. He also had chopped the FRL on the South Course at the AmEx. Let’s see if he can pop early for us again.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Aldrich Potgieter Top 20 +620 (DraftKings)

If total driving is what’s most important at TPC Scottsdale, let’s bet on arguably the best driver on the PGA Tour not named Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy. So far this season, Aldrich Potgieter is first in total driving, first in driving distance, and second in strokes-gained off the tee, behind only Scheffler. To be fair, nothing else has worked for the South African, but with how important driving is at this course, I’m hoping it can carry him to a top 20 finish.

Brian Kirschner: Haotong Li over Garrick Higgo -108 (DraftKings)

Li has been playing some incredible golf in his PGA Tour debut season. This should be a course he can thrive on and I don't see any reason why that would change this week in Scottsdale. Higgo was dreadful last week at the Farmers and has no history here. I love Li to continue to play well.

Brad Thomas: Sahith Theegala Top 10 +485 (DraftKings)

I’m double-dipping on Sahith Theegala in the outright and placement markets. There’s nothing that says I should chase a win and ignore value at +480 for a top 10, and I actually prefer that number over the top 20. Theegala has been boom or bust wherever he tees it up lately. You’re usually getting a top-10 or a T30-plus.

Byron Lindeque: Scottie Scheffler Round 1 Top 10 +144 (DraftKings)

To emphasize Cody’s argument above, Scottie Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 in three of his last five full-field PGA Thursdays, with La Quinta FRL honors at the AMEX, a R1 top 10 at the Open Championship, while also leading the field at both the Travelers and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson after R1. He is gaining +3.8 strokes in round 1, which is a ridiculous +1.2 strokes better than his next split at +2.6 in R2 over the last 13 months. It is easily the best market to attack Scheffler in right now!

Cody Williams: Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 incl. ties +275 (BetMGM)

Bezuidenhout has improved in all three career starts in Phoenix, culminating with a T4 finish last year. His showings at the AmEx and Farmers were middling (T38 and T27, respectively), but he’s third in SG: Approach and 19th in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds, while ranking third in scrambling. Bez is the type of player who I shy away from betting outright, but there are often signs such as this when he’s going to reel off some high-end finishes.

Brian Giuffra: Hole in One on No. 16 YES +280 (DraftKings)

Emiliano Grillo dunked an ace on 16 last year. In the history of the event played here, there have been 12 hole-in-ones at 16. That’s more than any of the other Par 3s on the course. I’m also betting hole-in-one YES at -125 on BetMGM as a hedge on this, but why not have some fun rooting for an ace on the best hole on the course -- and what has proven to be the most likely.

Final Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -20
Brian Kirschner: -21
Brad Thomas: -23
Byron Lindeque -25
Cody Williams: -19
Brian Giuffra: -22