Indiana Basketball: Overrated or Underrated in Key Early 2026 Projection?

Is Indiana getting too much hype—or not nearly enough? A closer look at where the Hoosiers land in a key early 2026 projection.

Feb 20, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries reacts to a call during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

With an ultra-stacked incoming transfer class, Indiana has turned heads this offseason. Darian DeVries and his coaching staff have put together a star-laden haul, highlighted by lead guard Markus Burton (Notre Dame) and big man Aiden Sherrell (Alabama). 

The transfer unit is supplemented by a key returner in Trent Sisley, along with a stellar trio of freshmen in Prince-Alexander Moody, Vaughn Karvala and Trevor Manhertz. 

All together, the Hoosiers have earned their preseason respect from the majority of pundits (including us). The expectation is the script will at long last be flipped in Bloomington next season. 

But what are the analytics saying? Do the metrics back up the consensus opinion? According to Bart Torvik, a major metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, the answer isn’t exactly a hard yes or no. 

Where Indiana basketball ranks in Bart Torvik's early 2026-27 projection

Mar 1, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian DeVries looks on against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

In Bart Torvik’s early 2026-27 projections, the analytical tool places the Hoosiers in the top 25, but just barely, as Indiana sneaks in right at No. 25. For some perspective, at the end of the 2025-26 season, Bart Torvik tabbed DeVries’ unit as the No. 32 team in the nation. 

So, is Indiana only seven spots better than a year ago – and is No. 25 a fair ranking? 

Is Indiana basketball better than Bart Torvik's 2026-27 projection?

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries directs his team against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

For now, without having seen any of these squads spend even one possession together, it’s impossible to pinpoint chemistry and how a team will truly mesh.

Certain teams returning the majority of their core have an advantage in that realm, but it’s difficult to predict how a squad chock full of fresh faces – as Indiana is – will fare from a chemistry standpoint. 

But there are some factors that allow educated guesses to be made – specifically talent and coaching. Purely from a talent perspective, the Hoosiers are certainly a top-25 squad – and likely in the upper half of that category. (Bart Torvik’s projection actually has Indiana rated as the fourth-most talented team in the country.)

As for the coaching, DeVries is a well-established head man who has helmed a handful of defensive-minded units (although 2026-27 will be just his third season at the high-major level). 

Nevertheless, the offense, given the talent the Hoosiers have accumulated, should take care of itself. And the defense, between DeVries’ track record and the incoming personnel, should take a massive stride forward. 

Then with the expected improvements on the glass (Sherrell and Samet Yigitoglu will be game-changers), the final product should hover closer to top-15 status than the outer edge of the top-25. 

And, depending on how DeVries blends it all together, by the end of the year, the Hoosiers may inch even higher. Regardless, any preseason ranking should have Indiana firmly in the top-20.