Indiana’s Big Ten, NCAA Tournament Fates Converge In Showdown With Ohio State

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – For the last month, Hoosiers On SI has been writing about Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament scenarios for the Indiana men’s basketball team.

From a deep well of scenarios, Indiana’s fate for both tournaments has converged for the regular season finale against Ohio State. The Hoosiers host the Buckeyes at 3:45 ET Saturday at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

The game has huge ramifications for both teams. Both the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, so this is a head-to-head showdown of two teams fighting to get into the field.

In addition, the winner of Saturday’s game will be the No. 9 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and avoid playing on the first day of the tournament next Wednesday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The loser will be the No. 10 seed and face playing five games in five days to win the tournament.

One situation feeds the other. The loser of Saturday’s game opens themselves up to a potential bad loss if they’re unable to navigate their way out of their first game in the Big Ten Tournament. The winner of Saturday’s game avoids that fate as they will be playing quality foes for the duration.

The pressure is on Ohio State. Indiana’s 77-76 overtime win in Columbus on Jan. 17 looms large in the NCAA Tournament bubble picture. The Buckeyes can ill afford to go 0-2 against a fellow bubble competitor.

Indiana’s 73-64 loss at Oregon on Tuesday was a missed opportunity to avoid this situation. Had the Hoosiers won – Indiana led 64-63 with under two minutes to go when a long Jackson Shelstad 3-pointer ignited a 10-0 game-finishing run by the Ducks – they would have had an additional Quad 1 victory and likely would have been pretty safe as far as making the NCAA Tournament. The Hoosiers also would have avoided the day one scenario at the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon guard TJ Bamba, right, looks for room to move under cover from Indiana forward Mackenzie Mgbako as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Tuesday, March 4, 2025, at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Ore. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now? Indiana still has work to do. At least one bracketologist is still bullish on the Hoosiers despite the loss. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports did not move Indiana off of being a No. 10 seed in his update from Wednesday morning.

Here’s a few of the scenarios and what could happen to Indiana if these situations played out.

What If Indiana Beats Ohio State And Wins At Least One Big Ten Tournament Game?

This is the best case scenario for the Hoosiers. Beat Ohio State, and Indiana avoids day one of the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers would likely play Oregon or Illinois on day two of the Big Ten Tournament.

If Indiana won that first game or more? The Hoosiers would almost certainly be safely in the NCAA Tournament field.

What If Indiana Loses To Ohio State And In Its First Game Of The Big Ten Tournament?

This is the worst case scenario. Indiana would put itself in a very compromising position.

For starters, Ohio State would gain a split of the season series but would have the more recent win. Recent performance isn’t supposed to factor into NCAA Tournament selection, but that’s only reflected in the data provided to the committee. It’s still subjective judgments that drive committee members’ choices, so a more recent win for Ohio State is an advantage.

It would give the committee legitimate cause to place Ohio State ahead of Indiana as the Buckeyes would have more Quad 1 wins than Indiana.

A loss in the Big Ten Tournament for Indiana would mean a defeat against one of the lower-seeded teams on day one. That would be devastating and put Indiana’s NCAA Tournament hopes in serious jeopardy.

What If Indiana Beats Ohio State, But Loses In The Big Tournament?

Recency bias can be a thing – see all of the teams that suddenly rise up the bubble based on a conference tournament run.

A win over Ohio State would be good for Indiana in separating itself and helping the bubble situation. It also removes the possibility of Indiana suffering a bad loss to a lower-tier Big Ten team on day one of the Big Ten Tournament.

A loss to either Illinois or Oregon afterward wouldn’t be a bad loss, but it would still be a loss. Indiana would probably still make the NCAA Tournament, but would likely have to sweat out whether it would be in the First Four or not.

What If Indiana Loses To Ohio State? What Would It Have To Do In The Big Ten Tournament?

In this scenario, Indiana would be playing on day one of the Big Ten Tournament, most likely against Southern California, Minnesota, Northwestern or Rutgers.

Indiana would certainly have to win its game against any of the teams it would play on day one. Indiana would very likely have to win on day two as well against the No. 7 seeded team – likely Illinois or Oregon – to feel somewhat safe for the NCAA Tournament.

The bottom line is that Indiana likely needs to win two games to feel safe for the NCAA Tournament regardless of the order of those wins.

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