Preseason Predictions For Indiana Women’s Basketball: How Did We Do?

Back in October, Hoosiers On SI ran a series predicting whether Indiana’s women’s basketball team was better than its Big Ten foes. Here’s the good, the okay and the ugly of how our predictions played out.

Indiana's Yarden Garzon (12) talks with teammates during the Indiana versus Maryland womens basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Preseason predictions. Most of us in the media do them. And if you do them long enough, you will look like a genius and a fool in equal measure.

That’s OK. While preseason predictions can set a narrative for a team – fairly or unfairly – they are basically harmless fun.

Back in October, we wrote a series of stories called Is Indiana Better Than? Featuring both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, we compared the Hoosiers to their 17 Big Ten foes in nine categories and determined whether Indiana was better or worse. We tried to determine where Indiana was in the Big Ten pecking order.

Today, we use hindsight to see whether our foresight was good or bad. regarding the Indiana women’s basketball team. Good, okay and ugly reference our prediction, not necessarily the state of Indiana or the team they were compared to become.

The Good

Utah Utes guard Gianna Kneepkens (5) drives past Indiana Hoosiers guard Chloe Moore-McNeil (22) in the second half at Colonial Life Arena. | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

• Iowa: We predicted Indiana to have a 5-4 edge. The Hoosiers tied with Iowa at 10-8 in the Big Ten, but won the head-to-head meeting 74-67 in Iowa City. So this was pretty accurate.

• Michigan State: We thought the Spartans were a tad better than the Hoosiers with a 5-4 edge. Michigan State finished a game ahead of the Hoosiers in the Big Ten, partly on the strength of a 73-65 win over the Hoosiers, so this was good soothsaying.

• Minnesota: The Hoosiers were predicted to have a 6-3 edge. Indiana finished two games ahead of the Golden Gophers, but lost the head-to-head game in Minneapolis. Still, this was basically on point.

• Nebraska: Indiana was predicted to have a 5-4 edge. The teams tied at 10-8 in the Big Ten, but the Hoosiers won the head-to-head matchup with ease in a 76-60 victory. We feel good about this prediction.

• Northwestern: Not much was expected of the Wildcats, and they won just two Big Ten games. Indiana’s predicted 8-1 edge proved to be prophetic – though the Hoosiers did struggle to beat Northwestern 68-64 at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

• Ohio State: The Buckeyes were picked to have a 5-4 edge. Ohio State had a weird season. The Buckeyes started 9-1 in the Big Ten – the only loss bizarrely provided Penn State with its only Big Ten victory. After that Ohio State finished 4-4 down the stretch, including a 71-61 loss at Indiana. While Ohio State finished three games ahead of Indiana based on that early season roll, we feel good about having Ohio State’s edge at just 5-4, especially given that both teams exited in the same round of the NCAA Tournament.

• Oregon: We gave Indiana a 5-4 edge. Though Oregon won the regular season meeting in Eugene, Indiana won the Big Ten Tournament rematch. The teams were both 10-8 in the Big Ten, but Indiana proved it when it mattered more in the Big Ten Tournament.

• Penn State: The Nittany Lions only won one Big Ten game, so the predicted 8-1 edge for Indiana proved to be accurate.

• Purdue: Indiana was picked to have an 8-1 edge with Purdue only having an advantage in free throw shooting. Indiana ended up being better in that category as the Boilermakers only won three Big Ten games and were beaten handily in both meetings against the Hoosiers.

• UCLA: While Indiana put up a respectable effort in a 73-62 home loss to the Bruins, UCLA was No. 1 in the nation for 14 weeks and counting. We picked UCLA to have an 8-1 edge over Indiana and that proved to be close to reality.

• Washington: Indiana was given a 5-4 edge. The Huskies finished a game behind Indiana at 9-9 in the Big Ten and the Hoosiers won at their place, so this checks out.

The Okay

Indiana's Sydney Parrish (33) looks to shoot during the Indiana versus Illinois women's basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Illinois: The Fighting Illini were predicted to have a 5-4 edge. It was a strange season for Illinois – similar to Ohio State’s streaky ways.

On one hand, Illinois won the head-to-head meeting 68-54 in Bloomington, arguably Indiana’s worst loss of the season. The Illini were also 11-4 in the Big Ten at their peak and were 2 1/2 games ahead of the Hoosiers as late as mid-February. This would suggest the 5-4 predicted edge for the lllini wasn’t wide enough.

The fair way to put it is that Illinois at its best was superior to Indiana and at its worst was worse than the Hoosiers. So while the 5-4 prediction seems to be on-point, it was a conclusion that didn’t seem accurate in real time.

• Maryland: The Terrapins were given a 7-2 edge. While Maryland did finish three games ahead of Indiana and beat the Hoosiers 74-60 in the head-to-head meeting in Bloomington late in the season, the Terps probably weren’t as superior as we predicted. Here, and in comparing Indiana to other teams, we underestimated Indiana’s free throw shooting. Indiana shot 79% at the line in 2025 compared to 73.5% in 2024.

• USC: This is a tough one. We only predicted a 6-3 edge for the Trojans. They ended up winning the Big Ten outright – six games ahead of the Hoosiers.

That would suggest this was a bad prediction, but in the two season meetings Indiana played USC close. We predicted Indiana would be superior at point guard (comparing Chloe Moore-McNeil to Talia von Oelhoffen, Moore-McNeil did have more Win Shares), proven Power Five ability and perimeter defense. Some proved close to reality, some didn’t.

The Ugly

Michigan’s Head Coach Kim Barnes Arico gives handshakes to Michigan State players and coaching staff after their game against Michigan State in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Jan. 25, 2025. | David Rodriguez Munoz / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Michigan: What on Earth were we thinking in picking Indiana to have a 9-0 edge over a Kim Barnes Arico-coached team? Mchigan did not have many known quantities entering the season, but Barnes Arico coached the Wolverines to an 11-7 Big Ten record (one game better than Indiana). They beat the Hoosiers and made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This was far and away our worst forecasting.

• Rutgers: Indiana was only given a 5-4 edge over Rutgers. We gave way too much credit to Rutgers for its Power Five experience when only Destiny Adams proved it on the floor. Indiana beat Rutgers by 21, and the Hoosiers finished seven games ahead in the Big Ten. The crystal ball was very cloudy on this prediction.

• Wisconsin: We only gave Indiana a 5-4 edge. A lot of it was misplaced faith based on Wisconsin getting better thanks to All-Big Ten selection Serah Williams and pieces put around her. That never came to pass in a strife-filled season that cost coach Maria Moseley her job. Indiana was superior in every respect and proved it with an 83-52 destruction of the Badgers in December. A forgettable forecast on our part.

Related stories on Indiana basketball

• MEISTER INTO PORTAL: Lilly Meister enters transfer portal. CLICK HERE.

• BARGESSER GOES INTO PORTAL: Three-year Indiana player Lexus Bargesser went into the transfer portal on Tuesday. CLICK HERE.

• LAMENDOLA INTO PORTAL: Two-year Indiana guard Julianna LaMendola has entered the transfer portal. CLICK HERE.

• SOUTH CAROLINA USES BIG THIRD QUARTER TO BEAT INDIANA: The Gamecocks pulled away after halftime to end Indiana's season with a NCAA Tournament second round victory. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT MOREN SAID: Teri Moren's postgame thoughts on the loss and the 2025 season after it came to a close on Sunday. CLICK HERE.

• MOREN ON INDIANA'S BLACK JERSEYS: Teri Moren gives her thoughts on Indiana's alternate black jerseys. CLICK HERE.

• PARRISH, PAOPAO REUNITE: Indiana's Sydney Parrish and South Carolina's Te-Hina Paopao reunite in the NCAA Tournament. CLICK HERE.

• MEISTER IS WHAT MARCH MADNESS IS ALL ABOUT: Indiana post player Lilly Meister had a tough Big Ten season, but her productive game against Utah is the kind of story March Madness is all about. CLICK HERE.