ESPN FPI Projects Indiana's 2026 Season, Game-by-Game

How does Indiana stack up against the rest of the Big Ten in the ESPN FPI projections?

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti talks to his team after the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Despite going 11-2 and making the College Football Playoff in 2024, Indiana was still flying under the radar entering last season.

We all know how that ended, as Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers went an incredible 16-0 and won the national championship.

Expectations are sky-high again in Bloomington, as Indiana isn't going to sneak up on anyone this year, even with Heisman Trophy winner and first overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza off to the Las Vegas Raiders.

ESPN released it's Football Power Index ahead of the 2026 season last week, and on Wednesday, game predictions were released by the outlet.

What kind of chances does Indiana have at running the table again, at least in the regular season?

Here is what ESPN FPI says about all 12 IU games this fall.

Indiana vs North Texas - Sept. 5

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti prepares to lift the trophy on the podium after the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 98.7%, North Texas 1.3%

Indiana vs Howard - Sept. 12

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 99%, Howard 1%

Indiana vs Western Kentucky - Sept. 19

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 97.6%, Western Kentucky 2.4%

Indiana vs Northwestern - Sept. 25

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 95%, Northwestern 5%

Indiana at Rutgers - Oct. 3

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 92.9%, Rutgers 7.1%

Indiana at Nebraska - Oct. 10

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 81%, Nebraska 19%

Indiana vs Ohio State - Oct. 17

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Stephen Daley (8) moves in on Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, during the Big Ten football championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 39.2%, Ohio State 60.8%

Worth Noting: For comparison, Ohio State is the underdog at Texas this year according to FPI, as the Buckeyes are given a 46.3% chance of winning that game.

Indiana at Michigan - Oct. 24

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 65.5%, Michigan 34.5%

Worth Noting: Indiana has not won a game in Ann Arbor since beating the Wolverines 27-20 in 1967.

Indiana vs Minnesota - Oct. 31

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 95.6%, Minnesota 4.4%

Indiana vs USC - Nov. 14

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 77.3%, USC 22.7%

Worth Noting: Indiana will have another chance to rewrite history in this game as it has never beat USC, going 0-4 all-time against the Trojans.

Indiana at Washington - Nov. 21

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 76.2%, Washington 23.8%

Indiana vs Purdue - Nov. 28

Nov 28, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) celebrate with the Old Oaken Bucket trophy after the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Indiana 96.1%, Purdue 3.9%

Worth Noting: 3.9% seems rather generous for a team that has been outscored 122-3 against Indiana the last two years.

ESPN FPI's Indiana Hoosiers Season Odds:

ESPN has its Football Power Index out as well, and gives Indiana the following chances in the 2025 season:

Projected record: 10.1-2.3

Finish 13-0, win Big Ten: 9.5%

6 or more wins: 99.4%

Make College Football Playoff: 57.0%

Make National Championship Game: 12.8%

Win National Championship: 6.6%