Breaking Down The 2025 Heisman Trophy Race

The Heisman Trophy race has been an interesting one in 2025, with a few somewhat unexpected candidates emerging.

Going into the season, ESPN listed Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith as the four favorites. None of them were invited to Saturday's Heisman Trophy ceremony.

Instead, four players who ranked outside ESPN's preseason top 10 –– and two outside the top 20 –– were named finalists for the 91st edition of the Heisman Trophy. That includes Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. The winner will be announced Saturday at 8 pm. ET on ABC from Jazz at Lincoln Center’s Appel Room in New York City

Here's a closer look at each player's statistics and odds, plus our thoughts on the race.

Heisman Trophy Odds

(according to the DraftKings Sportsbook Thursday afternoon)

Fernando Mendoza -1000
Diego Pavia +600
Jeremiyah Love +25000
Julian Sayin +40000

Here's a look at each player's statistics, along with the corresponding national ranking among qualified players at their position.

Fernando Mendoza

Passing yards: 2,980 (24th)
Completions, attempts, percentage: 226 (40th), 316 (66th), 71.5% (6th)
Average completion: 9.43 yards (2nd)
Touchdown passes: 33 (1st)
Interceptions: 6
Passer rating: 181.4 (2nd)
Total QBR: 88.4 (3rd)
Rush attempts, yards, TD: 69, 240, 6

Diego Pavia

Passing yards: 3,192 (15th)
Completions, attempts, percentage: 242 (26th), 340 (45th), 71.2% (8th)
Average completion: 9.39 (3rd)
Touchdown passes: 27 (9th)
Interceptions: 8
Passer rating: 171.5 (4th)
Total QBR: 87.7 (4th)
Rush attempts, yards, TD: 152, 826, 9

Jeremiyah Love

Rush attempts: 199 (22nd)
Rush yards: 1,372 (4th)
YPC (min. 100 carries): 6.9 (7th)
Rush TD: 18 (3rd)
Receptions, yards, TD: 27, 280, 3
Total points (any position): 126 (2nd)

Julian Sayin

Passing yards: 3,323 (11th)
Completions, attempts, percentage: 279 (9th), 356 (30th), 78.4% (1st)
Average completion: 9.3 (5th)
Touchdown passes: 31 (2nd)
Interceptions: 6
Passer rating: 182.1 (1st)
Total QBR: 89.6 (2nd)
Rush attempts, yards, TD: 37, -2, 0

Jack Ankony's take

While the odds suggest a heavy favorite going into Saturday's ceremony, it wasn't that way for most of the year. Going into the final week of the regular season, the Heisman Trophy was truly up for grabs between these four players.

Love racked up 338 yards and four touchdowns in two weeks leading up to the regular season finale, but missed part of the Stanford game with an injury and finished with just 66 yards and a score. The Heisman Trophy has become extremely difficult to win as a running back, and Love needed an emphatic final performance to have a shot, especially without participating in conference championship.

Love is certainly a deserving finalist, though, as he ranks second nationally with 21 touchdowns. It's a shame Notre Dame was snubbed from the College Football Playoff spot and Love's college career is over earlier than expected, but he has a bright future ahead as the No. 1 overall prospect on ESPN's 2026 NFL Draft board.

Pavia made a big statement in the regular season finale, leading Vanderbilt to a 21-point win at No. 19 Tennessee. He finished with a season-high 165 rushing yards and broke the 3,000-yard passing mark –– something Mendoza cannot claim.

What separates Pavia from Mendoza and Sayin is his rushing ability, with nearly 600 more yards on the ground than Mendoza. Sayin finished negative in that category. But is that enough to surpass Mendoza and Sayin, who both top Pavia in passer rating and QBR, while also leading their teams to undefeated regular seasons?

The value of team success is debatable when it comes to an individual award, but it still must be taken into account. Pavia's lowest single-game QBR of the season came in a 16-point loss to Alabama, a game that turned out to have major implications on the SEC title game and CFP.

For much of the season, Indiana and Ohio State appeared on a collision course toward the Big Ten Championship game, and it turned out to be quite the thriller. Neither quarterback had a particularly outstanding game, as Mendoza went 15-for-23 for 222 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a 13-10 victory. Sayin finished 21-for-29 with 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Perhaps a low-scoring affair opened the door for Pavia or Love, but it's also important to note that Indiana and Ohio State have the nation's top two scorind defenses. Neither quarterback should be hurt too greatly by those performances, as their full body of work still needs to be taken into account.

I don't have a Heisman Trophy vote, but if I did, it'd go to Mendoza. When comparing his statistics to Pavia and Sayin, the only detriment to Mendoza are his counting stats like total yards, completions and attempts, which are partially a product of not playing in the fourth quarter of blowout victories. Yet he still managed to lead the nation in passing touchdowns and rank top three in passer rating and QBR.

Mendoza led Indiana to victory in hostile environments like Iowa, Oregon and Penn State, which came with a few Heisman moments. He and the Hoosiers also demolished every opponent at home, and then took down the nation's No. 1 team in the Big Ten title game. Pavia's rushing yards are not enough to overcome that. Sayin lost the head-to-head battle, among other statistics. And despite being the best running back in the nation, Love simply didn't do enough at the end of the day.

Cue the "Heismendoza" chants.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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