ESPN FPI Predicts Indiana's Chances Against Minnesota in Homecoming Clash

ESPN's Football Power Index gives No. 4 Indiana a commanding edge over Minnesota as the Hoosiers return to Bloomington for Saturday's Homecoming matchup.

Oct 24, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on before a game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Indiana football needed overtime to escape Michigan with its seventh win of the season, but ESPN's computers don't expect Saturday's Homecoming matchup against Minnesota to be nearly as competitive.

The No. 4 Hoosiers (7-1) return to Memorial Stadium to face the Golden Gophers (5-2) in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS, with ESPN's College GameDay also making its way to Bloomington.

Despite Indiana's offensive struggles over the past two weeks, ESPN's FPI gives Curt Cignetti's bunch an overwhelming advantage heading into Saturday.

ESPN FPI heavily favors Indiana

ESPN's latest FPI rankings place Indiana at No. 6 nationally, while Minnesota sits at No. 65. That sizable gap is reflected in the model's projection for Saturday's clash.

FPI gives Indiana a 96% chance of defeating the Golden Gophers, making the Hoosiers one of the country's strongest favorites entering Week 9.

ESPN's SP+ model shares that confidence, projecting a 34-11 Indiana victory and giving the Hoosiers a 92% probability of winning.

Oddsmakers also expect a comfortable victory, with the Hoosiers opening the week as approximately 19.5-point favorites.

The projections are considerably more favorable than last week's outlook against Michigan, when FPI gave Indiana an 82.2% chance of winning in Ann Arbor.

Indiana ultimately needed overtime to secure a 13-6 victory, a reminder that even sizable statistical advantages don't guarantee comfortable results.

What the projection means for Indiana

While the computers project Indiana to cruise Saturday, the Hoosiers haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders offensively.

Indiana has scored just 28 combined points over its last two games against Ohio State and Michigan. Quarterback Josh Hoover endured his worst performance of the season against the Wolverines, throwing his first interception of the year and failing to complete a pass in the second half before overtime.

The Hoosiers' defense has helped compensate for those struggles, but Saturday presents an opportunity for Indiana's offense to regain its rhythm.

Minnesota's defense won't necessarily make that easy. The Golden Gophers allow just 20.1 points per game and rank 11th nationally in passing yards allowed.

Despite being significant underdogs, P.J. Fleck's team has already shown an ability to pull off upsets. Minnesota defeated then-No. 15 Iowa 13-10 last weekend, adding to earlier Big Ten victories over Michigan and Washington.

Still, the Golden Gophers have struggled offensively themselves, ranking 83rd in the country in scoring offense, averaging 26.6 points per game. Their rushing attack ranks near the bottom of the country at No. 132.

For the Hoosiers, Saturday represents an opportunity to do more than improve to 8-1. With a bye week looming, Indiana has a chance to enter November with renewed offensive confidence while keeping its College Football Playoff aspirations firmly intact.

ESPN's projections suggest the Hoosiers should have every opportunity to do just that.