ESPN: Indiana Football QB Fernando Mendoza 'Potential Riser' For No. 1 NFL Draft Pick

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- It's been 31 years since Indiana football last produced a first-round NFL Draft pick. There's growing optimism that drought will end in April of 2026.

ESPN believes quarterback Fernando Mendoza has a realistic chance to not only break that drought, but make Hoosier history.

Mendoza has a 12% chance of being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid, and is a "potential riser" once Indiana kicks off the 2025 season Aug. 30.

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza's odds are the fifth best -- he trails a quarterback quartet in South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, Penn State's Drew Allar and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier.

Only five Indiana players have been selected in the first round since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, and none went in the top five. The Hoosiers' lone No. 1 pick came in 1938, when the Cleveland Rams selected Corbett Davis.

Mendoza, who transferred from the University of California to Indiana this past winter, has been a popular pick in summer mock drafts, and Reid believes the Hoosiers' "quarterback-friendly offense" well-positions Mendoza to deliver on lofty offseason expectations.

And he's not alone.

"I really liked Mendoza's tape," an NFC area scout said told Reid. "He's the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and (Indiana head coach Curt) Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs."

Mendoza, who has two years of eligibility remaining, enjoyed a strong 2024 season at Cal. He completed 68.7% of his passes for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions while adding two scores on the ground.

Reid said the Miami native has a quality blend of arm strength and mobility for his size.

"He can stand and deliver in the pocket with ease and is extremely accurate -- his 5.1% off-target percentage last season was the best in the FBS," Reid wrote. "He also excelled throwing outside of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR.

"Sometimes he'll break the pocket prematurely instead of allowing concepts to fully develop, so scouts would like to see him be more patient in those situations."

Mendoza isn't the only Hoosier with first-round aspirations next spring. ESPN previously projected Indiana junior cornerback D'Angelo Ponds to go in the opening frame, while senior receiver Elijah Sarratt and defensive end Mikail Kamara have also received first-round consideration from various outlets.

Be it pre- or post-merger, Indiana has never had multiple players selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Then again, the Hoosiers had never won 10 games in a season before 2024. Perhaps the draft drought is merely the next to fall in Bloomington.

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