Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Football Against Michigan State

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Saturday's game between Indiana and Michigan State matches up the only remaining Big Ten teams with just one conference win.

Indiana has lost five of its last six games, with its lone Big Ten win coming against Wisconsin, and Michigan State is 1-7 in its last game with a 3-point win over Nebraska two weeks ago. The winner will keep the Old Brass Spittoon rivalry trophy until next year's matchup in East Lansing, but neither team is playing for bowl eligibility anymore.

Here are three keys to the game for Indiana, plus a score prediction at the bottom

Fix defensive miscommunications

Indiana allowed 662 total yards in its overtime loss at Illinois last week, and 507 of those yards came through the air with backup quarterback John Paddock. After the game, Indiana coach Tom Allen said he was shocked by the frequent breakdowns because the defense had a great performance the previous week against Wisconsin. Allen and players attributed some of these mistakes to miscommunication with signals, and fixing that has been a major emphasis this week.

"From day one, just continued reps on possible scenarios that happen within a call, with motions and movements, different things like that," Allen said. "And just make sure all the guys that are going to play are fully prepared for that."

Build a pass rush

Part of the reason Paddock was able to pick Indiana apart last week was because he had a clean pocket all afternoon, except for his game-winning touchdown pass. Indiana was wary to blitz at times because that left defensive backs in one-on-one coverage, and the blitz was ineffective because Illinois played max protection. Michigan State doesn't have the same level of talent at wide receiver as Illinois, so Indiana should be able to blitz more. But the Hoosiers also must win their one-on-one matchups more often along the defensive line to get to Michigan State's young and inexperienced quarterback, Katin Houser.

Target McCulley early and often

Indiana's Donaven McCulley has developed into a surefire No. 1 receiver in his second year at the position after beginning his career as a quarterback. At 6-foot-5, he's always had the length and athleticism to beat defenders, but he's polished his route-running skills this season. He racked up a career-high 11 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns against Illinois, and it could have been more if not for the four pass interference penalties he drew. McCulley and Sorsby played with noticeable chemistry on back-shoulder throws against Illinois, and this connection should only continue against Michigan State.

Score prediction

Indiana 28, Michigan State 17

The unknown factor in this matchup is how motivated and focused both teams will be with bowl eligibility out of the picture. A sure thing, though, has been the steady growth from Sorsby, who posted career-high numbers at Illinois, over the last month. Michigan State's quarterback situation has been more shaky, with Houser averaging just 121.6 passing yards per game. Indiana's defense must make several meaningful improvements from last week's disaster at Illinois, and facing the Big Ten's lowest scoring offense should help.

Fix defensive miscommunications

Build a pass rush

Target McCulley early and often

Score prediction

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