Indiana Football 2023 Season Preview: Predictions, Stat Leaders and More

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana enters its seventh full season under coach Tom Allen with plenty of unknown factors.

Indiana overhauled the roster with 24 incoming transfers on scholarship, and many of them will play key roles. For a second consecutive year, the Week 1 starting quarterback remains unknown until kickoff, with a potential midseason return from Dexter Williams II looming. Indiana hired Bob Bostad with an eye on improving the offensive line, and Matt Guerrieri takes over play-calling duties for the Hoosiers' new-look defense.

Allen had one of the best two-year stretches in program history from 2019 to 2020, but that momentum fizzled with a 6-18 stretch during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. That makes the 2023 season pivotal for Allen and the Hoosiers, and it begins with a home game Saturday against No. 3 Ohio State.

In our 2023 Indiana football season preview, we break down the reasons for optimism and concern, forecast statistical leaders, pick the winner of all 12 games, discuss Allen's future, predict the Hoosiers' Week 1 depth chart and more.

Biggest concerns

Indiana has talented running backs and wide receivers, but their value is diminished if the quarterbacks can't get them the ball and the offensive line can't open running lanes. The offensive line should be improved with the return of Matthew Bedford from injury and new offensive line coach Bob Bostad, but they will have to prove it on game day. Neither Tayven Jackson nor Brendan Sorsby looked very impressive in fall camp, and they have just 10 combined pass attempts in college. They eventually could be good quarterbacks, but there will be growing pains this season. If Dexter Williams II is able to return midseason from injury, that would be a big plus for the Hoosiers, but he may not be quite as dangerous as a runner following his second ACL surgery.

Defensively, Indiana has an entirely new cornerback room, as well as a handful of unproven safeties. Add a new defensive play caller in Matt Guerrieri, and it could take some time for this defense to mesh.

Reasons for optimism

Allen has consistently expressed excitement about Indiana's new-look defensive line, which features mostly transfers. With Andre Carter, Lanell Carr and others on the edge, Indiana's pass rush should be much improved. They've added interior mass with Philip Blidi, Patrick Lucas Jr., LeDarrius Cox and others the last two offseasons. They should help stop the run game and could make teams think twice about double-teaming Carter and Carr on the outside. With last year's leading tackler Aaron Casey returning at middle linebacker, alongside Stanford transfer Jacob-Mangum Farrar, Indiana's front seven should be more stout than last year.

Wide receiver and running back are two of Indiana's top position groups, along with the defensive line. Lucas, Henderson and Turner create a versatile rushing attack, with a good mix of speed and power. At receiver, Indiana has a trio of tall, lanky options with Camper, Williams and McCulley, while Lucas, Kamryn Perry and DeQuece Carter are in the slot receiver role.

Forecasting statistical leaders

Passing yards: Tayven Jackson. It wouldn't be surprising to see Indiana play three quarterbacks again in 2023, so this category could go a variety of ways. The quarterback competition went down to the wire between Jackson and Sorsby, and we won't know for sure who's the Week 1 starter until just before kickoff. But for prediction's sake, I'll go with Jackson. The other layer that could complicate things is Dexter Williams II. He tore his ACL in the 2022 season finale, but Allen said he could return midseason or perhaps a week or two earlier. If Jackson or Sorsby – both redshirt freshmen with limited experience – aren't getting the job done, Indiana won't hesitate to play Williams, a talented runner.

Rushing yards: Josh Henderson. Expect Indiana to give a pretty balanced workload to Henderson, Jaylin Lucas and Christian Turner, perhaps even putting two on the field together. Henderson was productive in his first season with the Hoosiers in 2022, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.

Receiving yards: Cam Camper. Despite playing just seven games last season due to a torn ACL, Camper led the Hoosiers with 46 receptions and 569 yards, good for 14th among Big Ten receivers. E.J. Williams, Donaven McCulley and others will take away some of his targets, but Camper is the go-to guy in the pass game.

Offensive MVP: Jaylin Lucas. How can Lucas be the MVP if he doesn't lead in rushing or receiving yards? Indiana will try to maximize his big-play threat in both the run and pass game, which will spread out his yardage totals. And with inexperience quarterbacks, getting Lucas the ball in space with easy screens or outside handoffs will be a priority.

Tackles: Aaron Casey. He led the Hoosiers in tackles last year, and there's no reason to think he won't do it again in 2023. He is one of just two returning everyday starters, along with Noah Pierre.

Sacks: Andre Carter. The Western Michigan transfer's best skill is something Indiana has been missing in recent years – pass rushing. At 6-foot-5 and 270 pounds, he totaled 13.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks last season.

Interceptions: Jamari Sharpe. This prediction is a bit of a shot in the dark due to significant roster turnover in the secondary. Sharpe, Jamier Johnson, Kobee Minor and Nic Toomer all appear to be in line for playing time at cornerback, not to mention competition at safety. I could pick about six different guys to lead this category with the same level of confidence. Allen recently said Sharpe has been "one of our top two or three corners," and he came to Indiana with 4.3-second 40-yard dash speed out of Miami, Fla. Regardless, Indiana has to get back to the kind of turnover creation it thrived on in 2020.

Defensive MVP: Aaron Casey. The team captain was chosen to wear No. 44 in honor of Indiana legend George Taliaferro. He's the cliché "quarterback of the defense," and Indiana will rely on him to command things in the middle.

Special teams MVP: Jaylin Lucas. He earned first-team All-American honors as a true freshman in 2022, leading the FBS with two kick return touchdowns. Teams will likely be more cautious about kicking to him this year, but he's still the clear pick.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: Ohio State 45, Indiana 14

This is as tough of a Week 1 matchup as any, especially considering Indiana's inexperience at quarterback and a powerful Ohio State defensive line.

Week 2: Indiana 33, Indiana State 13

Indiana State, an FCS team, went 2-9 last year. This should be a good opportunity for whoever plays quarterback for Indiana to build some confidence and for the new-look defense to take a breath after going up against Marvin Harrison Jr. and company the previous week.

Week 3: Louisville 24, Indiana 17

Although Indiana has a vastly new roster and he'll be coaching a different school, Louisville coach Jeff Brohm has a 4-1 record against the Hoosiers. This could be a back-and-forth game, requiring a late-game scoring drive for Indiana that falls just short at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Week 4: Indiana 35, Akron 17

Akron went 2-10 last year, the worst overall record of any MAC school. The Zips can put up some points, though, scoring at least 27 points in six games. But they should not be able to stop Indiana's talented running backs and receivers.

Week 5: Maryland 31, Indiana 24

The Hoosiers and Terrapins have produced some high-scoring nail-biters, with six of the last seven games being decided by six points or less. Indiana has a 4-3 record in those games, but it will be tough to stop fifth-year senior Taulia Tagovailoa at home in the fourth quarter.

--Bye Week--

Week 7: Michigan 35, Indiana 10

Surprisingly, Michigan has the lowest average margin of victory (14.7 points) against Indiana among all Big Ten teams during the Jim Harbaugh era. Last year, the teams were tied about midway through the third quarter, but Michigan shut out Indiana in the second half. The Wolverines are a College Football Playoff favorite again.

Week 8: Indiana 26, Rutgers 17

Allen has targeted a midseason return for quarterback Dexter Williams II, so this game or the previous road trip to Michigan seems possible, especially with the bye week providing extra recovery time. Rutgers has won the last two matchups, but Indiana should be able to end the streak at home.

Week 9: Penn State 40, Indiana 7

Penn State coach James Franklin has one of his best rosters since taking over in 2014, highlighted by a loaded defense. Beaver Stadium is a tough place to play, and this one might get ugly.

Week 10: Wisconsin 27, Indiana 17

Coach Luke Fickell defeated Indiana the last two years as Cincinnati's coach, and he's expected to bring a more pass-heavy offense to Wisconsin with SMU quarterback transfer Tanner Mordecai. The Badgers seem like a pick-your-poison team with one of the Big Ten's best running backs, Braelon Allen.

Week 11: Illinois 23, Indiana 20

A handful of Big Ten Network analysts picked Illinois to win the Big Ten West at the conference's media days, but I think they're a step below Wisconsin and Iowa, especially with 1,600-yard rusher Chase Brown gone. Indiana beat Illinois on a last-second drive in Week 1 last year, but the roles could reverse in the 2023 matchup in Champaign.

Week 12: Indiana 24, Michigan State 20

Michigan State lost quarterback Payton Thorne, as well as top wide receivers Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed. Last year, the Spartans ranked 13th in pass defense and 12th in run defense among Big Ten teams, allowing 39 points and 257 rushing yards in a home loss to Indiana.

Week 13: Purdue 27, Indiana 23

Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters takes over for Jeff Brohm as head coach, and initial reviews of Texas quarterback transfer Hudson Card have been positive. Purdue has some questions at wide receiver, but Indiana could have a tough time stopping running back Devin Mockobee.

Final Indiana record: 4-8

Is Tom Allen on the hot seat?

CBS Sports published an article in July, claiming that Tom Allen's seat is as hot as any coach's in college football. Allen and West Virginia coach Neal Brown were the only coaches to receive a "5" rating, which equates to "win or be fired." The rating is quite vague, but you get the point. Indiana is 6-18 under Allen over the last two seasons, making his seventh year a crucial one.

Allen's LEO mantra is lauded when Indiana wins and mocked when the Hoosiers lose. But despite struggles the last two seasons, players buy into Allen's vision, which speaks to him as a motivator and relationship builder.

There are multiple layers to the decision surrounding his job stability, starting with Allen's buyout. If Allen is fired without cause before Dec. 1, 2024, his buyout is $20 million. Firing Allen would, of course, also mean hiring a new coach and paying that price tag. Indiana isn't the most attractive job, and hiring an established winner would cost a hefty sum. The buyout money would also take away from the NIL fund, which could hurt both high school recruiting and roster retention.

So how many losses would it take? If Indiana goes 1-11, 2-10 or 3-9, firing Allen has to be a serious consideration. Four or more wins could be enough for Allen to keep his job.

Allen holds a 30-40 record at Indiana with two bowl game appearances, and he and Bill Mallory are the only two coaches in program history to coach in multiple bowl games. Allen's 14-7 record from 2019-20 remains one of the most successful two-year stretches in program history. Indiana is a hard place to win, and if the university chooses to move on this year, will it be willing to break the bank?

Depth chart prediction

Indiana, like many programs, didn't release a depth chart ahead of Week 1. Based on watching a handful of fall camp practices and attending news conferences, here's my best guess at what the two-deep depth chart could look like to start the year.

65 Carter Smith

77 Joshua Sales Jr.

56 Mike Katic

60 Max Longman

50 Zach Carpenter

56 Mike Katic

67 Kahlil Benson

60 Max Longman

76 Matthew Bedford

77 Joshua Sales Jr.

7 E.J. Williams Jr.

1 Donaven McCulley

4 DeQuece Carter

13 Kamryn Perry

84 Aaron Steinfeldt

48 James Bomba

6 Cam Camper

0 Andison Coby

2 Tayven Jackson

15 Brendan Sorsby

12 Jaylin Lucas

26 Josh Henderson

1 Andre Carter

92 Marcus Burris Jr.

96 Philip Blidi

91 LeDarrius Cox

51 Patrick Lucas Jr.

99 Nick James

BULL

41 Lanell Carr Jr.

10 Myles Jackson

44 Aaron Casey

26 Joshua Rudolph

7 Jacob Mangum-Farrar

43 Matt Hohlt

HUSKY

0 Noah Pierre

16 Jordan Grier

9 Jamier Johnson

5 Kobee Minor

19 Josh Sanguinetti

6 Phillip Dunnam

20 Louis Moore

17 Tyrik McDaniel

22 Jamari Sharpe

15 Nic Toomer

39 Nico Radicic

80 Chris Freeman

39 Nico Radicic

94 James Evans

96 Alejandro Quintero

95 Sean Wracher

81 Kurtis Robinson

94 James Evans

96 Alejandro Quintero

12 Jaylin Lucas

33 David Holloman

12 Jaylin Lucas

4 DeQuece Carter

Biggest concerns

Reasons for optimism

Forecasting statistical leaders

Game-by-game predictions

Is Tom Allen on the hot seat?

Depth chart prediction

Related stories on Indiana football