Where Indiana Stands In College Football Playoff Projections

Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers are in a good spot to receive a first-round bye, as long as they avoid a letdown in the final four weeks of the regular season.

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti against UCLA at Memorial Stadium. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first College Football Playoff rankings show is scheduled for Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it's time to dive into where Indiana might land.

The Hoosiers are 8-0 in head coach Curt Cignetti's second season, putting them in prime position for a second trip to the CFP. And this time, Indiana could receive a much more favorable draw.

Last season, the Hoosiers had to travel to a difficult road environment at Notre Dame, who went on to reach the national championship game. But if Indiana can take care of business and win its final four regular season games, it should receive a first-round bye.

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver E.J. Williams Jr. (7) celebrates a touchdown against the UCLA Bruins at Memorial Stadium. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana's College Football Playoff projections through eight games

ESPN

• No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana in Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Dec. 31. (Source: Kyle Bonagura)

• No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 2 Indiana in Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. on Jan. 1. (Source: Mark Schlabach)

Both Bonagura and Schlabach projected Indiana to advance past the quarterfinals, defeat No. 3 Texas A&M in the semifinals and reach the national championship, where it would face No. 1 overall seed Ohio State.

FOX Sports

• No. 3 Indiana vs. winner of No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Notre Dame. This projection includes Indiana losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, but still receiving a first-round bye to the quarterfinals. (Source: Joel Klatt)

Sports Illustrated

• Orange Bowl, Jan. 1: No. 3 Indiana vs. winner of No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami (Source: Bryan Fischer)

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the UCLA Bruins at Memorial Stadium. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

CBS Sports

• Orange Bowl, Jan. 1: No. 3 Indiana vs. winner of No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt (Source: Brad Crawford)

The Athletic

• No. 2 Indiana vs. winner of No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech (Source: Austin Mock)

On3

• No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Ole Miss in Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Dec. 31 (Source: Brett McMurphy) This projection includes Indiana losing to No. 2 Texas A&M in the semifinals.

Our thoughts on Indiana's CFP projections

At 8-0, Indiana has put itself in position to control its own destiny. If the Hoosiers run the table in the regular season against Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue, they'll certainly lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff. They'll be favored in all four games, likely by 20+ points in three of them, save for Penn State.

Then the question becomes, how much will the Big Ten championship affect seeding? For starters, the Hoosiers would obviously earn the No. 1 overall seed if they were to take down Ohio State. But if Indiana loses that game, it may still be in a good spot for a bye.

Looking back to last season, the CFP committee didn't severely punish teams for losing their conference championship games. Texas, Penn State and SMU each lost –– and in turn missed out on a first-round bye –– but they still made the playoffs, with Texas and Penn State hosting.

The key difference this season, which helps Indiana, is that first-round byes are no longer only awarded to the four best conference championship. For example, Texas was ranked No. 2 overall going into the SEC championship last season, but it dropped to the No. 5 overall seed because first-round byes were reserved for the top four conference champions.

So it was notable to see FOX Sports' Joel Klatt still project Indiana as the No. 3 overall seed with a loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. That means the top four seeds could very well be –– in some order –– the likely Big Ten and SEC championship participants: Ohio State, Indiana, Alabama and Texas A&M.

Indiana's Aiden Fisher (4) returns an interception for a touchdown against UCLA at Memorial Stadium. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-TImes / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In a scenario where Indiana loses a regular season game –– at Penn State, let's say –– the Hoosiers would still be in a good spot to reach the playoff. In fact, ESPN gives Indiana the best chances of any team in the nation to reach the playoff at 96.7%, ahead of Texas A&M at 96.4% and Ohio State at 96.1%.

However, a loss to Penn State would take away Indiana's shot at a first-round bye and could potentially put the Hoosiers on the road in the first round, depending on how things shake out around the country.

As for the Big Ten title game, Oregon and Iowa are currently third and fourth in the Big Ten standings with one loss, and Indiana beat both. Michigan and USC are the other Big Ten teams with one conference loss, but Michigan has to play No. 1 Ohio State, with USC traveling to No. 6 Oregon.

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