College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections After Week 9: Oregon’s Résumé Discussion

The Ducks have only one win against a team over .500, which could prevent them from hosting a first-round CFP game. Plus, how the bowl schedule is shaping up.

Could a weak slate cost Oregon and quarterback Dante Moore home field in the CFP? / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The calendar is about to turn to November and that means we’re only days away from learning just what the College Football Playoff selection committee thinks during a particularly outlandish season.

It also means we’re at the point in the season where teams can start locking up playoff bids (hello, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Mississippi) or reaching that elusive mark of six wins to guarantee postseason inclusion. Several programs figure to be in the mix for their first bowl games, while a handful of others are going bowling for the first time in several seasons as part of some impressive turnarounds. 

So who is going where? Sports Illustrated factored in current results and the way teams are playing to project out the rest of the season. 

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When it comes to the CFP, that means making a handful of key decisions over certain spots. Right now, Tulane has edged slightly ahead of conference rivals South Florida, Memphis and Navy in the race for the Group of 5 spot, which is pretty much locked into being the 12-seed at this point. There’s also a bit of a mess brewing in the Big 12, which has an outside shot of a four-way tie. Texas Tech gets the nod over BYU by virtue of hosting the Cougars in Lubbock in two weeks, but don’t discount Houston or Cincinnati from also eyeing a CFP berth. 

Another subplot is who winds up hosting the first-round games. Georgia and Miami both have strong enough résumés to do so even if they don’t make it to their respective conference title games. One particular case to pay attention to is Oregon, which has only a single win against a team over .500 (Northwestern). It would help if USC and Washington keep winning to set up opportunities to secure Top 25 wins, but it’s possible a weak slate costs the Ducks a home game at Autzen Stadium.

As for the other bowl games, there are fun matchups on deck after Week 9, including a Cure Bowl between two excellent Group of 5 teams, an old Fiesta Bowl rematch between Boise State and Arizona at the L.A. Bowl, two of the most explosive offenses in FBS meeting in the Gator Bowl and, of course, Diego Pavia trying to ride off into the sunset with Vanderbilt against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.

With all that in mind, here is how Sports Illustrated sees the playoff and all of 35 bowl games coming together to form the postseason picture in 2025–26 after Week 9.

College Football Playoff Projected Rankings After Week 9

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Indiana
4. Texas A&M
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Mississippi
8. Georgia Tech
9. Oregon
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas Tech
12. Tulane

First Round

• No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
• No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
• No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi
• No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Georgia Tech

Quarterfinals

• Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
• Orange Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. winner of No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
• Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Alabama vs. winner of No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi
• Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Georgia Tech

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Bowl Projections After Week 9

Bowl	Date	Matchup
L.A. Bowl	Dec. 13	Arizona vs. Boise State
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Dec. 16	Troy vs. Bowling Green
Cure Bowl	Dec. 17	James Madison vs. North Texas
68 Ventures Bowl	Dec. 17	Jacksonville State vs. Central Michigan
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Dec. 19	Old Dominion vs. East Carolina
Gasparilla Bowl	Dec. 19	Kansas vs. UConn
Potato Bowl	Dec. 22	UNLV vs. Ohio
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 23	FIU vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 23	Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl	Dec. 23	Kennesaw State vs. Utah State
Hawai‘i Bowl	Dec. 24	Hawai‘i vs. Liberty
Sports Bowl	Dec. 26	Minnesota vs. Toledo
Rate Bowl	Dec. 26	Washington vs. Baylor
First Responder Bowl	Dec. 26	UTEP vs. Texas State
Military Bowl	Dec. 27	Wake Forest vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 27	Iowa vs. Duke
Fenway Bowl	Dec. 27	Pittsburgh vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Dec. 27	BYU vs. Virginia
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 27	Fresno State vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 27	New Mexico vs. Miami (Ohio)
Gator Bowl	Dec. 27	Tennessee vs. Louisville
Texas Bowl	Dec. 27	Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 29	Kansas State vs. Memphis
Independence Bowl	Dec. 30	Iowa State vs. UTSA
Music City Bowl	Dec. 30	Northwestern vs. LSU
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 30	USC vs. Houston
ReliaQuest Bowl	Dec. 31	Nebraska vs. Texas
Sun Bowl	Dec. 31	Washington State vs. SMU
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Vegas Bowl	Dec. 31	Arizona State vs. Illinois
Armed Forces Bowl	Jan. 2	San Diego State vs. Temple
Liberty Bowl	Jan. 2	TCU vs. Missouri
Mayo Bowl	Jan. 2	Auburn vs. Florida State
Holiday Bowl	Jan. 2	Utah vs. Cal
TBD/Bahamas Bowl	TBD	Appalachian State vs. Louisana Tech

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